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CRITICAL THINKING ABOUT RISK

CRITICAL THINKING ABOUT RISK. Keep an open mind Give yourself time Get more information Neutral sources. Avoid confirmation bias Fight cultural cognition Be a smarter news consumer Think about trade-offs. HAZARD. A RISK?. A RISK?. EXPOSURE. (non-poisonous) A RISK?. (non-poisonous)

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CRITICAL THINKING ABOUT RISK

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  1. CRITICAL THINKING ABOUT RISK • Keep an open mind • Give yourself time • Get more information • Neutral sources. Avoid confirmation bias • Fight cultural cognition • Be a smarter news consumer • Think about trade-offs

  2. HAZARD A RISK? A RISK?

  3. EXPOSURE (non-poisonous) A RISK? (non-poisonous) A RISK?

  4. HAZARD AND EXPOSURE DEFINITELY A RISK!!!!

  5. KEY ELEMENTS OF HAZARD • IS IT A HAZARD? (And at what dose?) Pesticides Nanotechnology Pharmaceuticals in drinking water PCBs in window caulk of buildings built or renovated 1950 – 1978

  6. KEY ELEMENTS OF HAZARD • WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES? - DESCRIBE THE RESULT OF THE HAZARD. - WHEN. Immediate (sunburn) or Delayed (cancer) - DEGREE. Mild (wrinkly skin), Severe (Non-fatal skin cancers requiring surgery), or Fatal (melanoma) - FOR HOW LONG? Acute (Short term – sunburn), or Chronic (longer lasting – lifelong risk of skin cancer.)

  7. KEY ELEMENTS OF HAZARD • HOW HAZARDOUS? H1N1 Mercury (Philippe Grandjean et al., “Cognitive Deficit in 7-Year-Old Children with Prenatal Exposure to Methylmercury,” Neurotoxicology and Teratology 19, no. 6 (1997), pp. 417–428) Nuclear radiation (Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII, Phase 2,” National Research Council of the National Academies of Science, www.nap.edu/openbook.php?isbn=030909156X) Solar radiation

  8. KEY ELEMENTS OF HAZARD • HAZARDOUS TO WHOM? (SUBGROUPS!) CRIME MERCURY DRIVING KEY DEMOGRAPHIC ELEMENTS - AGE, HEALTH STATUS, GENDER, LOCATION.

  9. KEY ELEMENTS OF EXPOSURE • DOSE • BY WHAT ROUTE? INHALATION, INGESTION, DERMAL • OVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIME? SHORT TERM? LIFETIME? • AT WHAT AGE?

  10. KEY ELEMENTS OF EXPOSURE • DOSE • BY WHAT ROUTE? INHALATION, INGESTION, DERMAL • OVER WHAT PERIOD OF TIME? SHORT TERM? LIFETIME? • AT WHAT AGE?

  11. KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERAL • TRADE OFFS Energy Choices, Air Bags, Pharmaceuticals Mercury (Positive effects of fats from fish v. negative effects of mercury from fish for developing fetal health) Gary Myers and Philip Davidson, “Maternal Fish Consumption Benefits Children's Development,” Lancet 369, no. 9561 (2007), pp. 537–538.

  12. KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERAL • VARIOUS METRICS FOR LIKELIHOOD Risk of dying in a plane crash Per mile? Per flight? Per average American? Per average flier? Per frequent flier? Averages over what period? (10 yr. avg. includes 9/11)

  13. KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERALFun With Numbers! PROBABILITIES GENERAL OR SUB-POPULATION SPECIFIC? • Radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer in America. (EPA) • It kills between 3,000 and 32,000 Americans per year. • 85% OF THEM ARE SMOKERS

  14. KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERALFun With Numbers! PROBABILITIES ANNUAL OR LIFETIME? The average American’s chance of getting cancer each year is roughly 1 in 225. The average American woman’s lifetime risk of getting cancer is 1 in 3. For men, it’s 1 in 2.

  15. KEY ELEMENTS OF RISK IN GENERALFun With Numbers! ABSOLUTE or RELATIVE? A risk that is one in a million for the average person, and doubles, goes up 100% in relative risk, but is still only 2 in a million in absolute deaths

  16. ABSOLUTERELATIVEHow many? How Many COMPARED to something else

  17. RISK NUMBERS RELATIVEVS.ABSOLUTE • Relative annual risk of dying on the job rose 65%. (Subhead, lead) • Absolute annual risk of dying on the job went from 15 in a million to 25 in a million. (not mentioned anywhere in the story)

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