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Thomas L. Vollrath Economic Research Service USDA

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Thomas L. Vollrath Economic Research Service USDA

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  1. Changing Agricultural Trade Patterns in North AmericaChanging Agricultural Trade Patterns in North AmericaAAEA-CAES WorkshopNorth American Free Trade Agreements: Policy Challenges for 2002 Farm Bill and BeyondSession I, August 8, 2001The Impacts of NAFTA and CUSTA on Agricultural Trade Flows Thomas L. Vollrath Economic Research Service USDA

  2. Chart 1: Intra-NAFTA agricultural trade grew faster than NAFTA trade with the rest of the world NAFTA CUSTA

  3. Total agriculture(USDA-defined) and the 4 subsectors • Bulk commodities • unmilled grain, oilseeds, raw fiber • Processed intermediates • flour, feed, vegetable oils, spun fiber, live animals • Fresh produce & horticultural products • fruits, vegetables, nuts, flower, horticultural products • High-value-processed products • fresh & frozen meats, pasta, breakfast cereals, wine, beer, food preparations

  4. Chart 2:The dominance of bulk exports has declined considerably since 1974-76

  5. Chart 3: Mexico now exports more fresh produce and horticultural products than bulk commodities

  6. Chart 4: U.S. processed food exports to Canada and Mexico & U.S. FDI in food manufacturing move in tandem CUSTA NAFTA

  7. Chart 5: The U.S. is a more important market to Canada and Mexico than either of these countries are to the United States NAFTA CUSTA CUA

  8. Chart 6: The U.S. captures a much larger share of the Mexican market than exporters in Mexico secure in the U.S. NAFTA

  9. Chart 7: The U.S. also captures a much larger share of the Canadian market than exporters in Canada achieve in the U.S. CUSTA

  10. Chart 8: U.S. agricultural exports to Canada (Mexico) were 3.6 (6.3) times greater than would have been predicted in the absence of special inducements and impediments CUSTA NAFTA

  11. Chart 9: The farm economies in all three NAFTA have undergone substantial structural change NAFTA CUSTA

  12. Chart 10: NAFTA countries have developed or strengthened comparative advantages in HVPP post-CUSTA/NAFTA CUSTA NAFTA

  13. Chart 11: The United States is a big winner exporting meats across the board NAFTA CUSTA

  14. Field crops and high-value products • Field crops • rice, wheat, corn, and other cereals • soybeans, rapeseed, and other oilseeds • cotton and other plant fiber • fresh fruits, vegetables, and nuts • legumes and tubers • other crops • High-value products (HVP) • pasta, bakery products, and breakfast cereals • meat and meat products • processed fruits and vegetables • beer, wine, soft drinks, distilled alcoholic beverages • other food preparations

  15. Chart 12: Pre-NAFTA downward trends in U.S.-to-Mexico complementarities reversed themselves during 1994-98 NAFA NAFTA NAFTA

  16. Chart 13: Increased complementarities characterize U.S.-Canadian trade post-CUSTA CUSTA CUSTA

  17. Summary of key findings • Explosive growth in intra-NAFTA trade • Changes in the composition of ag trade • Changes in the geographical distribution of member-country trade • Increased competitiveness within NAFTA • “Neighborly” trade more important most everywhere, except for Mexican exporters • Some evidence that structural changes are beneficial

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