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Energy, development and health futures in poorer countries

Energy, development and health futures in poorer countries. Adrian Renton. Director IHHD. Background. A 1999 World Bank (WB) report claimed that GDP growth 1960-1990 accounted for only 15% of concomitant growth in life expectancy in developing countries.

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Energy, development and health futures in poorer countries

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  1. Energy, development and health futures in poorer countries Adrian Renton. Director IHHD

  2. Background • A 1999 World Bank (WB) report claimed that GDP growth 1960-1990 accounted for only 15% of concomitant growth in life expectancy in developing countries. • These findings were used repeatedly by WHO to support a policy shift away from promoting social and economic development, towards vertical technology-driven programmes. • I replicated the WB report using the Bank’s 2005 datasets, providing a new assessment of the relative contribution of economic growth. • I then combined the analysis with projections on energy use and economic growth to assess how many counties would be anticipated to have achieved Millenium development goals at different points in the future.

  3. Life expectancy at birth and under five mortality rate: 1960 and 2000

  4. WHO model and my model World Bank Model My Model Interaction Terms

  5. Proportion of improvement attributable to GDP growth

  6. Poorest countries : Predicted change in life expectancy at birth among females : 1970-2000 with and without 2% growth in GDP.

  7. World energy resources and use

  8. Linking Energy use to Health outcomes If we havei types of energy Ei = Annual Energy Use (type i) I = Energy Intensity in Production Pi = Proprotion of Energy contributed by type i Ei= GDP . I . Pi So we can • use year on year projections of GDP growth, energy intensity and proportion contributed by each energy type to calculate cumulative use. • Subtract this from current resource to estimate how much left in any year • Use our regression model describing relationship between GDP and Health outcomes to examine health trajectories.

  9. Projected Health, GDP and Energy Indicators

  10. Proportion of countries achieving stated levels in life-expectancy (female) and under five mortality, growth in share of world GDP of poorest countries and decline in gas and oil resources

  11. Key Points • WHO policy for vertical tech programmes based on false assumptions • Poorer countries may do worse healthwise with developing technology • Technology . GDP interaction means that development of technology improves health of the richer countries more (increase health inequalites) • Only 50% countries hit Millennium Health Goals at point of exhaustion of existing conventional oil and gas reserves.

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