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Major assumptions:

Objective: Retire ~7,000 MW of fossil Keep Big 9 + GAF Retire COF 5 instead of COF 1-4. Major assumptions: Acquisitions – limited for higher sensitivity; budget at new build and pursue opportunities at or below equivalent dollars PPAs – limited for higher sensitivity

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Major assumptions:

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  1. Objective: • Retire ~7,000 MW of fossil • Keep Big 9 + GAF • Retire COF 5 instead of COF 1-4 • Major assumptions: • Acquisitions – limited for higher sensitivity; budget at new build and pursue opportunities at or below equivalent dollars • PPAs – limited for higher sensitivity • New CTs or CCs require 5 years to build • North Carolina Compliance Strategy…

  2. Alternative #1 • Allow no acquisitions, i.e. new build only • Replace in groups near 3 CC capacity, 3x1 or 3 (1x1) • Comply with N.C. Order with retirement • Rank units as largest groups possible first • JSF in 2012(712MW) • WCF1-6 in 2014 (678MW) • JOF & SHF 1-9 in 2015 (2478MW) • KIF5-9 & ALF in 2016 (1646MW) • KIF1-4, COF5, SHF10 in 2017 (1151MW) • SHF10 may go with units 1-9 or in the last group pending economies of scale = retirement target

  3. Alternative #2 • Allow no acquisitions, i.e. new build only • Replace in groups near 3 CC capacity, 3x1 or 3 (1x1) • Comply with N.C. Order with retirement • Rank units by overall performance criterion listed below • JSF in 2012(712MW) • WCF1-6 in 2014 (678MW) • SHF10 & JOF in 2015 (1380MW) • SHF1-9 & KIF5-9 in 2016 (2120MW) • KIF1-4, ALF, COF5 in 2017 (1775MW) = retirement target

  4. Objective: • Retire ~7,000 MW of fossil • Keep Big 9 + GAF • Retire COF 5 instead of COF 1-4 • Major assumptions: • Acquisitions – limited for higher sensitivity; budget at new build and pursue opportunities at or below equivalent dollars • PPAs – limited for higher sensitivity • New CTs or CCs require 5 years to build • Recommendation: • Comply with N.C. Order via retirement, except KIF. • Retire beyond N.C. Order in groupings near a CC of a 3x1 or 3 (1x1) magnitude with time to build • Third, either rank by size or by performance for additional portfolio perspectives; i.e. alternative #1 or alternative #2 • Replacing this capacity with gas fired generation will be costly due to interstate pipeline scarcity. Most will require upgrades.

  5. The court mandated the following abatement measures at the four plants within 100 miles of the state:Bull Run: Complete the installation of a scrubber that was under construction at the time of the trial. Bull Run has one EGU and has an SCR in place.Kingston: Complete the installation of two scrubbers currently under construction sufficient to cover all nine EGUs by December 31, 2010. One scrubber is scheduled to go online in June 1, 2010 (units 1-5) and January 1, 2010 (units 6-9). No issues with current schedule as it relates to the ruling. John Sevier: Install scrubbers and SCRs sufficient to clean all four units by December 31, 2011. The plant currently has no scrubbers or SCRs. One of the units has an SNCR, and TVA said it will build SNCRs for the other three units that will operate while the SCR equipment is being built.Widows Creek: Install scrubbers and SCRs on six units that currently have no scrubbers or SCRs by December 31, 2013. The plant has eight EGUs. One unit has an SCR and a recently modernized scrubber; another unit has an SCR and an old scrubber that is schedule to be modernized.

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