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Overview of 2004 Election

Overview of 2004 Election. 3,371,013 2,831,066 278 49 911. 1013 2 29 237 58.2. Numbers to Watch in 2004. W. A. 1. 1. M. E. M. T. 4. N. D. 3. 3. O. R. V. T. M. N. N. H. 7. 3. I. D. 1. 0. 4. W. I. 4. N. Y. S. D. 1. 1. 3. 3. M. I. 3. W. Y. R.

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Overview of 2004 Election

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  1. Overview of 2004 Election

  2. 3,371,013 2,831,066 278 49 911 1013 2 29 237 58.2 Numbers to Watch in 2004

  3. W A 1 1 M E M T 4 N D 3 3 O R V T M N N H 7 3 I D 1 0 4 W I 4 N Y S D 1 1 3 3 M I 3 W Y R I 3 4 P A C T I A N J 2 3 N E 8 7 1 5 O H 5 I L U T D E N V 2 1 I N 2 2 3 5 W V 4 C O 1 2 C A D C M D 5 3 8 5 4 V A K S M O 1 0 K Y 1 3 6 1 1 8 N C T N 1 4 O K A Z N M A R S C 8 8 G A A L M S T X L A A K F L H I 2 0 0 0 P r e s i d e n t i a l R e s u l t a n d E l e c t o r a l V o t e T o t a l M A 1 2 1 8 1 1 5 6 8 1 3 9 7 3 2 9 3 2 5 4 2 0 0 0 G o r e R e s u l t ( E l e c t o r a l V o t e s ) G o r e ( 2 6 7 E l e c t o r a l V o t e s ) B u s h ( 2 7 1 E l e c t o r a l V o t e s )

  4. 2000 Final Vote Gore/Nader = +3,371,013 over Bush

  5. 10 Closest States in 2000

  6. 2000 Election – Electoral Vote Change 00/04

  7. 1996 Presidential Election Votes 49.2% 40.7% 8.4%

  8. 1996 Clinton Job Approval 49.2% 40.7%

  9. 1996 Job Approval and Presidential Election Votes 49.2% 40.7% 8.4%

  10. 1984 Presidential Vote 58.8% 40.5%

  11. 1984 Reagan Job Approval 58.8% 40.5%

  12. 1984 Job Approval and Presidential Election Votes 58.8% 40.5%

  13. 1992 Presidential Election Votes 42.9% 37.1% 18.8%

  14. 1992 Bush Sr. Job Approval 42.9% 37.1% 18.8%

  15. 1992 Job Approval and Presidential Election Votes 42.9% 37.1% 18.8%

  16. 1980 Presidential Vote 50.7% 41% 6.7%

  17. 1980 Carter Job Approval 50.7% 41% 6.7%

  18. 1980 Job Approval and Presidential Election Votes 50.7% 41% 6.7%

  19. Incumbent president’s job approval rating is the single most accurate predicator of his final vote

  20. 2004 Presidential Vote 44% 7%

  21. Bush Job Approval 49% 48%

  22. Bush Right Track/Wrong Track 54% 40% Source: Democracy Corp

  23. Carter, Reagan,Bush Sr., Clinton and Bush Jr. Job Disapproval in Election Year 59% 55% 48% 33% 32%

  24. The Race to 270 Electoral Votes 2000 Bush states and new electoral vote total after reapportionment. (7 EVs gained) Source: Cook Election Preview/National Review

  25. The Race to 270 Electoral Votes 2000 Gore states and new electoral vote total after reapportionment. (7 EVs lost) Source: Cook Election Preview/National Review

  26. Battleground EVs After Reapportionment Source: Cook Election Preview/National Review

  27. Economic Factors Influencing 2004 Election Gray indicates states performing better than national average Source: Economy.com/NY Times

  28. Gray indicates states performing better than national average Source: Economy.com/NY Times

  29. Important Dates in 2004 Holidays/ Memorial Day Important Independence Day Dates Transfer of Power to Iraqi Govt. Labor Day 9/11 Election Day Dem Convention 2004 Summer Olympics GOP Convention Debates

  30. Phase 1 – Defining the Race (present – July) Phase 2 – Conventions/Olympics - Democratic Convention - Olympics - Republican Convention Phase 3 – General Election - September Phase 4 – Debates - 9/30 - 10/13 Phase 5 – End Game - 10/14 – 11/2 Phases of the Campaign

  31. 2000 Presidential Vote by Senate Seatand House Districts

  32. W A N H M T M E N D M N V T O R M A I D W I N Y S D M I W Y R I C T P A I A N E N J O H I N U T N V I L D E W V C O D C F I T Z G E R A L D ( R ) C A V A K S C A M P B E L L ( R ) M D K Y M O N C T N E D W A R D S ( D ) O K A Z S C N M N I C K L E S ( R ) A R H O L L I N G S ( D ) G A A L M S M I L L E R ( D ) T X A K * L A M U R K B R E A U X ( D ) F L G R A H A M ( D ) H I 2 0 0 4 O p e n U S S e n a t e S e a t s B u s h C a r r i e d A l l S t a t e s E x c e p t I l l i n o i s O W S K I ( R )

  33. Numbers to Watch in 2004 • 3,371,013 – Gore/Nader Plurality • 2,831,066 – Nader Raw Vote • 278 - Bush Electoral Votes Now Based on 2000 Results • 49% - Bush’s job approval • 9/11 • 10/13 – Final Debate • 2% - Change in Real Household Income • 29 – Number of States Bush Carried • 237 – Number of Congressional Districts Bush Carried • 58.2- Turnout percentage of voting age population in 2000

  34. Overview of 2004 Election This election is ours for the taking

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