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The path of energy in and out of the Earth climate system

3. The Trajectory of Climate Change: Energy and Economic Issues, Demographic Realities, Information from Science to Assist Public Policy and Personal Choices.

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The path of energy in and out of the Earth climate system

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  1. 3. The Trajectory of Climate Change: Energy and Economic Issues, Demographic Realities, Information from Science to Assist Public Policy and Personal Choices Catholic Climate AmbassadorsReflection and TrainingGlenn Patrick Juday, Professor of Forest EcologySchool of Natural Resources and Agricultural SciencesUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks Presentation Center, Los Gatos, CA04-06 March, 2011

  2. CHALLENGE:How to sustain thriving human life and responsibly manage Earth’ resources for the long term? A LARGE, COMPLEX, INTERACTING SYSTEM:• ENERGY (fossil, renewable, nuclear, etc.?) • HUMAN POPULATION (up, down, stable, old, young?) • ECONOMIC /TECHNICAL CAPACITY (poor, wealthy, proficient, unskilled?) • ENVIRONMENT (pristine, exploited, damaged?)PERSPECTIVE:It is a SCIENTIFIC mistake to identify ONE single element as THE problem.

  3. Faucet (IN) Drain (OUT) The path of energy in and out of the Earth climate system

  4. PART A: • DESPITE THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE “PEAK OIL” PERSPECTIVE, WE ACTUALLY DO HAVE ABUNDANT HYDROCARBONS, ESPECIALLY THE U.S.A. We are not running out of fossil fuels. Abundance, not scarcity is the problem.

  5. World Oil Proved Reserves (in billions of barrels) Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2178rank.html

  6. There will be fuel - NY Times • Published: November 16, 2010 • By Clifford Krauss • http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/17/business/energy-environment/17FUEL.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss • … Just as it seemed that the world was running on fumes, giant oil fields were discovered off the coasts of Brazil and Africa, and Canadian oil sands projects expanded so fast, they now provide North America with more oil than Saudi Arabia. In addition, the United States has increased domestic oil production • for the first time in a generation. • Meanwhile, another wave of natural gas drilling has taken off in shale rock fields across the United States, and more shale gas drilling is just beginning in Europe and Asia. Add to that an increase in liquefied natural gas export terminals around the world that connected gas, which once had to be flared off, to the world market, and gas prices have plummeted. • Energy experts now predict decades of residential and commercial power at reasonable prices. Simply put, the world of energy has once again been turned upside down.

  7. There will be fuel (ctd.) - NY Times Published: November 16, 2010 By Clifford Krauss http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/17/business/energy-environment/17FUEL.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss … Add up the shale, the deepwater drilling and Canadian oil sands, says Edward L. Morse, the head at commodity research at Credit Suisse, and what you get is less dependency on OPEC and hostile countries like Venezuela. Synthetic oil made from Canadian oil sands has become the largest single source of imported oil this year, far more than from any OPEC country. Mr. Morse said the demand side of the equation also helped. He noted that American demand for gasoline appeared to have peaked in 2007 and could decline by 15 to 20 percent by 2020 because of increasingly efficient cars and a federal mandate requiring that renewable fuels, like ethanol, blended into transportation fuels must increase to 36 billion gallons in 2022, from nine billion gallons in 2008… “When you add it up,” Mr. Morse noted, “you get something that very closely approximates energy independence.”

  8. In the past 12 months, coal's share has dropped from 49 percent to 45 percent of U.S. electric generation. Trend in U.S. Electric Generation Sources Energy Source 1996 2009 Coal 52 % 45 % Natural gas 13 % 23 % Nuclear 20 % 20 % Renewable 02 % 04 % Source: US Energy Information Administration

  9. The United States has already dramatically cut its emissions and probably has already complied with the Kyoto/Copenhagen goals for reduced emissions. In 2007, the U.S. emitted 6.12 billion metric tons of carbon. In 2008, emissions fell to 5.92. In 2009, while President Obama was promising that the U.S. would cut its emissions to 5.0 by 2015, the American economy and public -- on their own -- cut the emissions to 5.5 billion. Most likely, by the time the 2010 measurements are in, we will have reached the Obama goal. While many attribute the cut to the recession, which presumably will end sometime, the fact is that emissions dropped before the recession hit and have continued to fall. A big part of the reason is the reduction in the use of coal to generate electricity. SOURCE: Without cap and tax, U.S. has reduced carbon emissions Tuesday, March 1, 2011 - 4:51pm Submitted by Dick Morris http://www.thecitizen.com/blog/50

  10. Top Ten Countries by Oil Shale Resource Volume in Place (in billions of barrels) SOURCE: Chapter 1: An Overview of Oil Shale Resources Emily Knaus,1 James Killen,2 Khosrow Biglarbigi,1 and Peter Crawford1 1INTEK, Inc., Arlington, VA 22201 2U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC 20585 c s .o rg 0 -1 03 2 .c h0 01 IN: Oil Shale: A Solution to the Liquid Fuel Dilemma; Ogunsola, O., et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2010.

  11. World Shale Oil Resource (conceivable that it could be produced) (in billions of barrels) Russia: 247 rank = #2 (1/10th of USA) USA: 2,085 rank = #1

  12. PART B: WHO (HOW MANY) ARE THE WE? • The baby boom period was unique demographically.• The native-born U.S. population is not replacing itself, except for fertile subgroups.• U.S.total population growth was sustained by immigration and age structure (echo boomers and longer life spans)

  13. U.S. Public Land Law Review Commission (1965-1970) Final Report Page 3: “In pursuing our work, we took cognizance of the fact that between the year 1965, when we started our work, and the year 2000, the population of the United States will have grown by over 100 million people.”

  14. United States Population, Actual and Projected (in Millions) 1970-2050 2010 = 308.5 (Jan est.) (19% short of projection) Year 2000 = 281.4 Actual Projected Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.

  15. up down U.S. fertility/natality TFR 1980 2000 Births 1920 1940 1960 Births TFR # of births per woman in lifetime pros- perity absol. # of births (000’s) depression TFR #Births in U.S. 1960 1920 1940 1980 2000

  16. “baby boomers” “echo boomers” U.S. population pyramid “baby boomers”

  17. Carlson, Allan. 2006. The Family Factors: Lessons from History About the Future of Marriage & Family in the United States Touchstone, January/February. • 1945–1964: fertility rose for all American religious groups, but rose far more rapidly and stayed high longer among Catholics. • The American Baby Boom was disproportionately “a Catholic thing.” Total marital fertility rate: Non-Catholics Catholics Early 1950 3.15 3.54 Early 1960s 3.14 4.25

  18. Well-known law of sociology: The more education a woman receives, the fewer children she has. • Baby Boom: Large families were mainly among the best educated Catholics. In 1950s, college-educated Catholic women bear more children than Catholic women without a high-school degree. • Increased fertility primarily among younger parents: Through 1965, each new cohort of parents was more pro-natalist in attitude than group before. • Unique conjunction in America of 3 trends at same time (A) marriage rate rose, (B) divorce rate fell, (C) marital birth rate rose.

  19. Foreign-born Residents in the U.S. Population

  20. World Population Outlook: 2008 Update (UN Population Division) High Medium Low

  21. Dramatic decline in fertility in China

  22. Actual Projected

  23. Actual Projected 14%

  24. PART C: • SO, ADDING THIS ALL UP, WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

  25. Establishing climate change awareness, culture, actions, and policies will take place in an environment of:• AGING AND GENERALLY DECLINING POPULATIONS IN MOST COUNTRIES• ABUNDANT FOSSIL FUEL RESOURCES• POTENTIAL MODEST TO MODERATELY HIGH REAL-PRICE INCREASES IN FOSSIL ENERGY COSTS• UNKNOWN - Innovation Freedom Wealth trajectory Solidarity Social chaos/cohesion

  26. “Ego sum via veritas vita” “I am the way the truth and the life.”

  27. The kind of universe we live in Ordered Rational Abundant/vast Having properties oriented toward supporting life

  28. The discipline of love Self awareness Self discipline Self control Self mastery Capacity for self donation

  29. A message to the people of Alaska from Pope John Paul II (May 1984)

  30. When I arrived on my first visit to your beautiful State, dear people of Alaska -- and it is beautiful, your State -- I remember being welcomed by a lovely little child, Mary, who reached out and handed me a bouquet of forget-me-nots, your State flower. Shortly afterwards that little girl was called home to her heavenly Father, but her loving gesture is not forgotten... … Today I'm here in person to give you the assurance that I have not forgotten you. Even when I am miles away, I hold the people of Alaska and those of the whole of the United States close to me in my heart. I do not forget you, for we are linked together by bonds of friendship, of faith, and of love.

  31. The city of Fairbanks reminds us also of another direction, for it is called ``the heart of the golden north.'' Here in this vast State … peoples of many diverse backgrounds find a common home... This wonderful diversity provides the context in which each person, each family … is challenged to live in harmony and concord, one with the other. To achieve this aim requires a constant openness to each other on the part of each individual and group -- an openness of heart, a readiness to accept differences, and an ability to listen to each other's viewpoint without prejudice. Openness to others, by its very nature, excludes selfishness in any form. It is expressed in a dialog that is honest and frank, one that is based on mutual respect.

  32. Openness to others begins in the heart…Only with a new heart can one rediscover clear sightedness and impartiality with freedom of spirit, the sense of justice with respect to the rights of man, the sense of equity with global solidarity between the rich and the poor, mutual trust and fraternal love.

  33. Here in Fairbanks, you have the opportunity to rediscover such values and express them in your harmonious relationship with your neighbor, which reflects the stupendous harmony of nature which pervades this region. May God grant you the strength to express this harmony in your own lives, in your relationships with others. May He give you the courage to share generously and selflessly the blessings that you yourselves have received in abundance.

  34. THE END OF PRESENTAION 3. The Trajectory of Climate Change: Energy and Economic Issues, Demographic Realities, Information from Science to Assist Public Policy and Personal Choices

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