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Ch.13 World Wave Climate Ch.14 Forecasting the Waves

Ch.13 World Wave Climate Ch.14 Forecasting the Waves . Science of Forecasting Waves GNM 1136 Mr. Werner. Questions to Consider. What do you want to know about your destination before you travel there? Surf Consistency Temperatures (land and water) Wind Patterns

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Ch.13 World Wave Climate Ch.14 Forecasting the Waves

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  1. Ch.13 World Wave ClimateCh.14 Forecasting the Waves Science of Forecasting Waves GNM 1136 Mr. Werner

  2. Questions to Consider • What do you want to know about your destination before you travel there? • Surf Consistency • Temperatures (land and water) • Wind Patterns • Animal Life (sharks, jellies, etc… • Type of Break (reef, rocks, sand, etc…) • Localism • Language Barriers • Lodging

  3. Wave Measurements from Space • Satellites – radar altimetry • Article Link

  4. Challenge • When is the North Atlantic more active? • South Pacific? (fig.13.1, 13.2) • How do these maps relate to surfable wave heights? • Why are the two ocean basins so different?

  5. Wave Climate Zones • North Pacific • North America • Caribbean • Mexico/Central America • South America • S. Pacific Islands • Hawaii • Europe • Mediterranean • Africa • Indian Ocean • East Asia • Australia • New Zealand

  6. Wave-Current Interaction • Biggest Waves on Earth? (Fig. 13.3) • World’s Biggest Tsunami • Rogue Wave Observations off the US West Coast • New York Times • Bermuda Triangle – National Geographic Video

  7. Ch.14 Forecasting the Waves

  8. About Wave Models • Derived from multiple mathematical models • Wind = atmospheric calculations – layers • Waves = grid system • Computer calculates predictions every 20 minutes for approximately 10 days = a model “run” • Each calculation builds off of the previous one. • Done twice a day. • Smooth color lines are used to differentiate between wave heights. • Wave model is highly dependant on Wind model.

  9. Wave Height & Period • Significant wave height – Hs or H1/3 = average height of 1/3 of all the waves • Significant Period – Ts – average period of about 10-15 successive prominent waves • Peak Period – period on spectrum that contains the most energy. Similar to Ts. • Wave height and period examples

  10. Buoy Reports • Current data – not predicted (Table 14.1) • Look at trends (36 hours) – Multiple uses • Delaware Buoy • Will the wave height be the same on the beach?

  11. Understanding Weather Maps • Surface weather analysis chart • Lab Activity

  12. Wavewatch III Model • How to Read a Wave Model • NOAA – Understanding Wavewatch III • Wavewatch III • Current Model –WW3 • http://stormsurf.com/

  13. Be Careful • Wave Models can be very tricky because of local bathymetric effects. • Do not rely entirely on one model – combine all models together for the best results. • Look at local winds, tides, period and direction

  14. Quote from Stormsurf.com • “The wave models provide an easy to read analysis and forecast of sea state conditions two times per day for 3 days (for the NOAA Suite) and one week (for the FNMOC Suite). The precaution about using wave models for swell prediction is doubly important. It's a model that uses a model to make a prediction. That is, the wave model uses an atmospheric model to determine the future state of the atmosphere, then makes a prediction of how the atmosphere will affect the water under it. So there's lot's of room for error.”

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