GSBS 6001 Managing Under Uncertainty Introduction

1. GSBS 6001 Managing Under UncertaintyIntroduction Dr Sharon Ayson Senior Lecturer in Management Newcastle Business School Sydney CBD Campus

2. Overview • Lecture 1: Introduction to Course • Reading: Course Outline & Course Blackboard Site • Main themes: • Course, structure and personnel • Course learning materials • Course assessment • What is Managing Under Uncertainty? • Structure of Session: • Part One: Introduction to Course • Part Two: Discussion of Blackboard material

3. Course Coordinator and Lecturer - Dr Sharon Ayson • Room11.15, Phone826 26414, EmailSharon.Ayson@newcastle.edu.au • Academic background • Bachelor of Business (Marketing) NCAE now UWS, • Graduate Diploma in Administration (Public Sector) KCAE now UTS, • Graduate Diploma in Education (Adult Education) SCAE now UTS, • Master of Science and Society (UNSW) • Master of Management UTS, • Doctorate in Philosophy (PhD) UTS. • 18 years lecturing experience in three large Australian universities, visiting • academic positions held in Singapore, China and Japan. Last 6 years as • Associate Professor in Strategy. • Published over 80 research papers on Management, Strategy and Organisational Behaviour • Professional Background • 25 years industry experience as Middle and Senior manager in Stockbroking, International Banking (Commonwealth, Barclays) FMCG Research and Marketing (Unilever) • 20 years as Management Consultant Welcome

4. Managing Under Uncertainty The course develops foundation skills concerning managerial decision making

5. Course Objectives Successful Students will be able to: • Communicate an individual assessment of the concepts and value of decision making strategies • Recognise various decision making perspectives and techniques • Apply critical judgment, analytical and logical reasoning, strategic thinking and creative problem solving skills • Demonstrate effective application of managerial decision making to uncertain business contexts

6. Course approach to student learning By studying at this level and on this course, you are taking responsibility for the management of your learning • Use resources intelligently, including specialist support (see course outline) eg • NBS Postgraduate Student Manual • Learning Development Blackboard site • InfoSkills website • Become active learners in preparing for class and within class activities: • Prepare well for class • Integrate your ‘real-world’ workplace experiences to our learning • Work actively in groups (Norman & Schmidt, 2000) – positive affect on academic achievement • Utilise ‘pauses’ in class to confer and clarify with colleagues (Ruhl et al, 1987) • Use your learning in analysing and solving of case studies (Prince, 2004) • Understand the student policies critical to your success eg academic integrity • Get to know (and love) your friend, “Turnitin” • Respect each other in your collective learning

7. Our Learning Environment • Respect each other in your collective learning • Listen while I and others talk • Participate by questioning and sharing • Cooperate (and not compete) with each other • Live up to your commitments to your colleagues eg group contracts • Be on time to class and group meetings • Turn off mobile phones and use computers in class ONLY for class activity

8. Central Resource • Course Outline • This is the authoritative document for your course • Please note: • Course schedule: This details the Lecture activity; In class activity and Academic literacy tutorial activity • Academic Literacy Tutorials • Compulsory component of course • Focuses on student education as to the linguistic and structural conventions of written and oral communication in the discipline of management • Group work: • It is a critical part of the course – it facilitates peer and collaborative learning • Penalties • Late submission of assessments attracts penalties • Effective time management is critical to success

9. Course Learning Materials • Recommended Textbook • Fitzgerald & Ayson(2012) is a customised text • it contains 24 chapters taken from a diverse array of discipline textbooks • Availability: In e-book or printed text form (details on blackboard site)

10. Course Learning Materials • Blackboard https://blackboard.newcastle.edu.au/webapps/login/ Please familiarise yourself with the contents of Blackboard for this Course, in particular, the core menu: • Staff Contacts • Course Outline • Textbook purchase instructions • Course Materials • Assessment • Academic Integrity and Using Turnitin • NBS Postgraduate Student Manual

11. Course Assessment • Assessment • Predominantly individual tasks • Assignment tasks, learning outcomes, assessment criteria posted on blackboard and in the Course Outline • Assessment 1: Observation Review 20% Due 11;59pm Sunday 30th September • Assessment 2: Individual Case Study Analysis: Individual decision making framework (40%) • Single case study report to be completed by 11:59pm Sunday 28th October • Assessment 3: Personal Case Study Reflection (40%) Due: 11:59pm Sunday 25th November

12. What is managing under uncertainty? “Nothing is permanent but change” “Change is inevitable in a progressive society. Change is constant” It is change, continuing change, inevitable change, that is the dominant factor in society today. No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be … This, in turn, means that our statesmen, our businessmen, our everyman take on a science fiction way of thinking.

13. What is managing under uncertainty? • The only constant is change … and, in today’s increasingly technological age, the rate of change is increasing seemingly exponentially • And yet decisions continue to be made …. … decision making is a part of life …. … for the manager, it is a matter of survival and success • From an academic perspective, there is no ‘grand theory’ but many disciplines contributing to better understanding decision making but each through their own disciplinary ‘lens’ … but what is a decision?

14. What is managing under uncertainty? • Defining a decision ‘Acts of choice between alternative courses of action designed to produce a specified result, and one made on a review of relevant information guided by explicit criteria’ (Rose, quoted by Weeks in Salaman and Thompson, 1980:187) A commitment to action (Mintzberg, 1983:188) ‘Decision making comprises three principal phases: finding occasions for making a decision; finding possible courses of action; and choosing among courses of action’ (Simon, in Harrison, 1999:4)

15. What is managing under uncertainty? Defining a decision “A moment, in an ongoing process of evaluating alternatives for meeting an objective at which expectations about a particular course of action impel the decision maker to select a course of action most likely to result in attaining the objective’ (Harrison, 1999:5) ‘A conscious and human process, involving both individual and social phenomena, based on factual and value premises, which includes a choice of one behavioural activity from one or more alternatives with the intention of moving towards some desired state of affairs’ (Shull et al in Harrison, 1999:4)

16. What is managing under uncertainty? Defining a decision ‘..the point of selection and commitment … The decision maker chooses the preferred purpose, the most reasonable task statement or the best course of action” (Emory & Niland in Harrison, 1999:5) “To say a person has made a decision may mean (1) that he has started a series of behavioural reactions in favour of something or it may mean (2) that he has made up his mind to do a certain action, which he has no doubts that he ought to do. But perhaps the most common use of the term is this: “to make a decision” means (3) to make a judgment regarding what one ought to do in a certain situation after having deliberated on some alternative courses of action’ (Ofstad in Harrison, 1999:4)

17. What is managing under uncertainty? Class Tasks: (You will be allocated the following questions in different groups) 1a Is a decision a process or an outcome? 1b What makes a good decision? • Considering the definitions, what is common and what is missing? • Try to identify what you consider to be the key words when defining a decision and try and place them into a sequence? • What will guarantee success in decision making?

18. Profile of a decision • Understanding the profile of a decision is not simple! • It can be analysed in many ways: the decision maker, the decision type, the decision context, the decision outcome, the decision process, the decision as part of a organisational system of decisions • It can be viewed through different lens’: human values, human psychology, organisational psychology, sociology, social psychology, mathematics, statistics, economics, ethics • It has resulted in many ‘models’ normative or classical models; organisational models; political models, process models • The models have formed the foundations for both qualitative and quantitative disciplinary approaches • In this course, we will draw upon a number of these models but with a qualitative ‘process model’ approach, with a behavioural disciplines orientation

19. Summary Today: • Introduction to course • Main themes: • Course, structure and personnel • Course learning materials • Course assessment • What is managing under uncertainty? Next Week: • Lecture 2: Nature of Decision making • Reading and Preparation: Posted on blackboard under ‘Course materials’