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How do Meteorologists Make a Forecast?

How do Meteorologists Make a Forecast?. Ross A. Lazear February 29, 2012. Why the discrepancy? Forecasting is often extremely challenging!. There are *many* forecasts made available to the public… *National Weather Service *The Weather Channel *AccuWeather *Wunderground *Your iPhone

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How do Meteorologists Make a Forecast?

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  1. How do Meteorologists Make a Forecast? Ross A. Lazear February 29, 2012

  2. Why the discrepancy?Forecasting is often extremely challenging! There are *many* forecasts made available to the public… *National Weather Service *The Weather Channel *AccuWeather *Wunderground *Your iPhone …etc…

  3. Types of Forecasts *Nowcasting (Up to six hours) *Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days) *Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal *Climate (IPCC)

  4. *Nowcasting (Up to six hours) *Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days) *Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal *Climate (IPCC) Types of Forecasts

  5. When will the thunderstorm hit? When will the snow taper? When will the rain change to snow/sleet/freezing rain? Nowcasting

  6. Radar Satellite Soundings Nowcasting Tools

  7. Surface (airport) observations Nowcasting Tools

  8. *Nowcasting (Up to six hours) *Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days) *Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal *Climate (IPCC) Types of Forecasts

  9. Computer models needed! Models use: -Current surface observations -Upper air observations -Previous forecast …and then… Short/Medium Range Forecasting

  10. From MetEd / UCAR Short/Medium Range Forecasting

  11. GFS - 16 days, global, U.S.A. NAM - 84 hours, N. America, U.S.A. HRRR/Rapid Refresh, 18 hours, U.S.A. ECMWF - 10 days, global, U.K. UKMET - global, U.K. NOGAPS - global, U.S.A. (Navy) JMA - Japan CMC - Canada WRF - Multiple domains, also run locally at Albany! Models

  12. *Nowcasting (Up to six hours) *Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days) *Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal *Climate (IPCC) Types of Forecasts

  13. Various global “signals” that help meteorologists forecast on longer time scales. -ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) Long Range/Intraseasonal/Seasonal

  14. Also… -Lots of other complex atmospheric waves in the tropics… Long Range/Intraseasonal/Seasonal From Dr. Paul Roundy, UAlbany

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