INNOVATION AND TECHNICAL PROGRESS: BENEFIT WITHOUT RISK? 11-13 September 2006, Ljubljana, Slovenia

1. Risk Analysis for the Infrastructure of a Hydrogen Economy O.A. Rosyid, D. Jablonski, U. Hauptmanns INNOVATION AND TECHNICAL PROGRESS: BENEFIT WITHOUT RISK? 11-13 September 2006, Ljubljana, Slovenia

2. The scarceness of fossil fuels and the resulting price increases have put alternative energies on the agenda. Hydrogen: may play an important role enables one to store energy and put it into end use at the time and place desired production sources: electricity (nuclear energy), renewable energy sources (wind, sun), electricity produced during hours of low consumption by a country’s electric power system A large-scale introduction of hydrogen into an economy requires that the risks associated with it should be at least not higher than those of existing technologies, e.g. LPG ROLE OF HYDROGEN 1. Introduction2. H2 Economy3. Methods4. Example5. Risk 6. Conclusions

3. INFRASTRUCTURE 1. Introduction2. H2 Economy3. Methods4. Example5. Risk 6. Conclusions Potential hydrogen applications in Germany: • cars – fuel cell supplying an electric motor or combustion engine • households – fuel cell combined heat and power units (FC-CHP) In order to implement such systems the following infrastructure is needed:

4. STUDY OBJECTS 1. Introduction2. H2 Economy3. Methods4. Example5. Risk 6. Conclusions Activities in the hydrogen economy and study objects representative of its risk

5. RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL 1. Introduction2. H2 Economy3. Methods4. Example5. Risk 6. Conclusions

6. EVENT TREE FOR GH2 RELEASE 1. Introduction2. H2 Economy3. Methods4. Example5. Risk 6. Conclusions Accident scenarios are described by event trees, based on experience with accidents.

7. GH2 STORAGE 1. Introduction2. H2 Economy3. Methods4. Example5. Risk 6. Conclusions

8. FAULT TREE 1. Introduction2. H2 Economy3. Methods4. Example5. Risk 6. Conclusions

9. RELIABILITY STUDY 1. Introduction2. H2 Economy3. Methods4. Example5. Risk 6. Conclusions Examples of reliability data and test intervals Analytical solution of the fault tree leads to 96 minimal cut sets. Characteristic distribution parameters of the frequency of release: • 5th centile: 3.9·10-8 yr-1 • Expected value: 1.0·10-6 yr-1 • 95th centile: 3.8·10-6 yr-1

10. CONSEQUENCES Probit equations: 1. Introduction2. H2 Economy3. Methods4. Example5. Risk 6. Conclusions Pressure wave: Heat radiation: Death by tank fragment impact Death by overpressure Death by heat radiation

11. RISK 1. Introduction2. H2 Economy3. Methods4. Example5. Risk6. Conclusions Individual risk was calculated by combining the expected frequency of tank rupture with the conditional probabilities of death, weighted by corresponding probabilities of the event tree. • uncertainties of the results for the consequences were not assessed • risk is low and rapidly decreases with distance – no one in direct vicinity of the plant (exclusion area)

12. CONCLUSIONS 1. Introduction2. H2 Economy3. Methods4. Example5. Risk 6. Conclusions • Risk of the hydrogen economy is not higher than that of a competing option, namely LPG. • Risk of the storage of gaseous hydrogen under pressure analysed here is low and can be tolerated, if current international risk objectives, i.e. individual risk around 10-6, are used as a yardstick. 3. There is no obstacle from the perspective of safety to implementing a “hydrogen economy”

13. Risk Analysis for the Infrastructure of a Hydrogen Economy O.A. Rosyid, D. Jablonski, U. Hauptmanns INNOVATION AND TECHNICAL PROGRESS: BENEFIT WITHOUT RISK? 11-13 September 2006, Ljubljana, Slovenia Further details to be found under: www.uni-magdeburg.de/iaut/as