Organiser: Paul Schreyer OECD Statistics Directorate

1. Conference of European StatisticiansSeminar: Impact of the Global Crisis on Statistical Systems Paris, June 2010Session 3: Social and household statistics Organiser: Paul Schreyer OECD Statistics Directorate

2. Introduction Session 3 Invited Papers: • Monitoring social change and the task of social statistics: development in the Netherlands (Paul van der Laan and Wim van Nunspeet, CBS Netherlands) • The Swedish Economy During two Crises (Petter Hällberg and Krister Näsén, Statistics Sweden) • Lessons Derived form the Crisis for Social Statistics (Inna Steinbuka, Eurostat)

3. Introducing the papers (1)Van der Laan & van Nunspeet • Background • Three economic stimulus packages in the NLD since Nov 2008 (total of 2% of GDP) • Social stimulus measures (part-time unemployment benefits, wage subsidies etc) • Questions posed by authors • Has traditional rapid information from social statistics been adequate to monitor effects of crisis and stimulus packages? • Is more short-term information needed in areas for which low-frequency social information prevails, such as living standards, well-being?

4. Introducing the papers (2)Van der Laan & van Nunspeet • Response: • Most data needs could be fulfilled with existing statistics • But some shortcomings became apparent and led to a quest for: (1) greater detail in some areas (e.g. group of young people, own-account workers) (2) more information on dynamics of income, labour markets etc.: can we follow individuals over time? (3) revisiting the scope of social statistics: are we measuring what really matters to people?

5. Introducing the papers (3)Petter Hällberg and Krister Näsén • Comparison of Sweden in 2 crises (early 1990s & current crisis) on the basis of LFS • Interesting conclusion: from a labour market perspective, the current crisis has been less severe than the 1990 crisis • But also interesting demonstration of the usefulness of dynamic data • Consider graph with simple static data on unemployment

6. Unemployed per 1000 persons (16-64), Sweden

7. Introducing the papers (4) • Interesting, but static data only tells part of the story • For instance, static data provides no information on transition probabilities: how likely is it to become unemployed if one is employed, outside the labour force, a man/woman etc? • Authors show dynamic data

8. Example for dynamic data: transition rates to unemployment during 2 crises in Sweden • On average, lower probability of unemployment now than in early 1990s • But not for people over 55 years of age • Disaggregated dynamic data tells different story about vulnerability than static data

9. Introducing the papers (5)Inna Steinbuka - Eurostat • Deals with crisis-related issues addressed by social statisticians in the European Statistical System • Key European statistics • Quarterly EU LFS • Labour market Principal European Indicators

10. Introducing the papers (6)Inna Steinbuka - Eurostat • Generally of good quality but: • Make better use of available data (e.g., analyse impact of crisis on specific groups of the population) • Improve timeliness and flexibility: a lag of 2 to 3 years for some annual data (income, poverty social protection) is too long • Improving timeliness: • Better coordination of fieldwork periods in member countries • Sharing tool and processes between countries • Exploit more fully potential of administrative data • Sub-samples for quick key indicators • Extending scope of existing data collections • More info on demand side of labour market

11. Common messages • Overall, social statistics did their job during the crises • But more detail needed in some areas • And shorter lags in other areas • Dynamic and panel data are key for many analytical purposes • Scope of social statistics may need revisiting and expanding, for example to consider subjective data • Increase flexibility of data collection and processing

12. Questions…Dutch paper • The paper mentions changes in the infrastructure of household survey to increase its flexibility – please provide some more information • The paper advocates a broader scope of social statistics to include also subjective data (feelings, opinions etc.). This is important because citizens will find that their views are recognised and voiced. Is there also a demand from analysts and policy makers for such data?

13. Question…Swedish paper • What are the statistical lessons you draw from comparing the two crises – has the present crisis given rise to different statistical challenges from the crisis in the early 1990s?

14. Question…Eurostat paper • The paper mentions the idea that well-established short-term surveys such as the LFS function as rapid response tools during a crisis (integration of additional questions e.g. on income). Has this idea been discussed with Member countries – what has been their reaction? • Have any other foreward-looking measures been discussed in the ESS to ensure responsiveness when the next crisis arises, very probably in a different area?

15. Thank you for your attention!