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FAO. CGIAR. WMO. GECAFS Vision. A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to environmental stress. Fundamental Questions. How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions?

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  1. FAO CGIAR WMO

  2. GECAFS Vision A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to environmental stress.

  3. Fundamental Questions • How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions? • How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security? • What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions?

  4. Key Terms Global Environmental Change changes in the biogeophysical environment Food Systems an interconnected set of processes and activities Food Security a state or condition underpinned by food systems

  5. Global Environmental Change Changes in the biophysical environment caused or strongly influencedby human activities For example changes in: Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality Nitrogen availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level

  6. Global Environmental Change Examples of human activities leading to GEC: Agricultural intensification Freshwater extraction Fisheries overexploitation Waste production Deforestation Fossil fuel consumption Urbanisation Land reclamation

  7. Components of Food Systems & Key Elements FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS • Affordability • Allocation • Preference • Nutritional Value • Social Value • Food Safety FOOD AVAILABILITY • Production • Distribution • Exchange

  8. Food Security • exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (definition from the World Food Summit) • emphasizes access for individuals, households, communities to food.

  9. GECAFS Goal To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of GEC on food systems and to assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptive responses aimed at improving food security.

  10. Achieving the Goal • Improve understanding of the interactions between food systems and key socioeconomic and biogeophysical components of the Earth System. • Deliver the new science necessary to assist policy formulation for improving food security in the face of GEC. • These are to be undertaken simultaneously

  11. Global Environmental Change and Food SystemsResearch Conditions & Scenarios Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks Decision Support Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems Adaptation

  12. Research Approaches • 1. Conceptual & Methodological Research • Food Systems Concepts • Vulnerability Concepts • Scenario Construction • Decision Support Systems • 2. Food Systems Research in • Indo-Gangetic Plain • Caribbean • Southern Africa

  13. Conceptual & Methodological Research Developsa GEC science agenda that: • targets generic science issues • improves understanding of the interactions between the Earth System and Food Systems • integrates natural and social sciences • adds value to basic science by underpinning applied science • underpins regionally-based food systems research Conditions & Scenarios Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks Decision Support Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems Adaptation • International networking approach • Led by small, specialist committees • Coordinated by dedicated Science Officers • Specific funding applications, mainly to science agencies

  14. Regional Food Systems Research Develops a GEC science agenda that: • targets regional scientific issues • relates to regional development needs • interacts effectively with the regional policy making process • encourages more support for the regional science communities • provides contexts for conceptual research Conditions & Scenarios Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks Decision Support Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems Adaptation • Regional studies approach • Led by regional scientists assisted by GECAFS IPO • Specific funding applications, mainly to development agencies

  15. Caribbean Indo-Gangetic Plain Main GEC Issues Climate variability & extreme events Water availability Land degradation Sea currents & salinity Biodiversity loss Sea level Predominant Diet Pattern Mixed, mainly imported (majority) Roots/tubers & fish (sig. minority) Key Policy Issues Food security and self-sufficiency Trade policies and competitiveness Exporting quality produce & processed products Poverty in rural communities Main GEC Issues Climate variability Glacier and snow melt Water availability & quality Nitrogen availability & cycling GHG emissions Predominant Diet Pattern Rice & fish (east IGP) Wheat/rice & meat (west IGP) Key Policy Issues Increased agric. production Limiting env. degradation Improved socioecon. conditions Reduced labour migration Southern Africa Main GEC Issues Climate variability & ENSO Climate mean values Water availability & quality Land degradation Biodiversity loss Predominant Diet Pattern Meat & Maize/Tubers Mixed (significant minority) Key Policy Issues Food security and self-sufficiency Regional integration and trade Rural infrastructure and market access Disaster response and “safety nets”

  16. Research Relevance and Partnerships Science Socio- economic Natural

  17. Research Relevance and Partnerships Science Agendas Development Agendas Science Socio- economic Natural

  18. Research Relevance and Partnerships Science Agendas Development Agendas Policy Makers Resource Managers Science Socio- economic Natural

  19. Food Systems Concepts Research Questions • What parameters describe food systems so as to facilitate GECAFS research? • Within given food systems, which parameters are most sensitive to GEC? • Who are the agents within each major food system, what are their roles, and how do they interact?

  20. Food Systems Vulnerability Research Questions • What are the dimensions of risk in vulnerable food systems? • What are the levels of present risks and how sensitive are they to present trends and future scenarios of vulnerability? • How do risks compare among vulnerable populations, between regions and from the local to regional scales?

  21. GECAFS Southern Africa initiative

  22. GECAFS Southern Africa “Issue Identification”Workshop Development Bank of Southern Africa Midrand, South Africa April 2003 Objective To identify the key issues of concern and information needs for national and regional planning with regard to food provision in the context of Global Environmental Change

  23. GECAFS DBSA Workshop April 2003 • Overarching questions identified: • What are the vulnerable points in the food systems in Southern Africa? • What are the range of options to reduce vulnerability (e.g. productions systems, trade, political)? • What factors need to be included in comprehensive scenarios (climate change is one of many factors)? • Is information delivered of adequate quality, timeliness and resolution? • How can capacity be increased to deliver and translate technical information to improve policy formulation?

  24. GECAFS DBSA Workshop April 2003 • Key outputs 1 • Food security needs to be addressed at both SADC and national levels • A significant proportion of the region’s food is “self provided” (especially in rural areas); but intra- and inter-national trade is also important • National Food Security relates to satisfying national requirements from domestic production and trade • National Self Sufficiency relates to satisfying national requirements from domestic production alone

  25. GECAFS DBSA Workshop April 2003 • Key outputs 2 • Agriculture in SADC is now gearing more towards commercial crops (e.g. tobacco, horticulture), and thus away in part from subsistence crops (e.g. maize, sorghum) • Increasing self-sufficiency will require empowering the producer to a greater extent with regard to access to credit, insurance, land rights, etc. • Institutional arrangements across the region lead to inconsistencies regarding access to technology and financial instruments.

  26. Activity since DBSA Workshop • Follow-up discussions with region’s scientists, resource managers, policy-makers and donors • => review of information needs • Improved definition of Food Systems research • Preparative discussion meeting (UCT, mid-September 2004)

  27. Apr 04 GECAFS SAF “Issue Identification” WS DBSA Food Systems London Oct 04 SAVI Cape Town Oct 04 • Dec 04 • Food Systems WS • Gaborone • Day 1: Food Systems • Day 2: Vulnerability of Food Systems aspects • Day 3: Vulnerability of Food Systems to GEC. } DSS Florida Jan 05 • Research Questions on Vulnerability of Food Systems and Impacts • Proposal for next WS Scenarios Dhaka Mch 05 Mid 05 GECAFS SAF Research Planning WS Research Questions on Adaptation & Feedbacks Research Proposal Preparation

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