Dissertation Committees Dr. Farideh Farazmand, Chair Dr. John M. Cipolla Dr. Joan Scialli

1. Defense Dissertation Committees Dr. Farideh Farazmand, Chair Dr. John M. Cipolla Dr. Joan Scialli Yu-chin Pang August 22th, 2007

2. Comparative Analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve in Central and Eastern Europe and South and East Asia

3. I. Introduction Background Problems Purposes Terminology Contexts V. Discussion Interpretations Implications Conclusions Limitations Recommendations II. Literature Review Theoretical Models Empirical Studies Recommendations and Gaps IV. Results Final Data Producing Findings of Research Questions Results of Hypotheses III. Research Methods Theoretical Framework Research Questions and Hypotheses Research Design Evaluation of Methodology

4. Backgrounds and Problems

5. Economic Development and Industrialization

6. Introduction—Purpose • General Analyzingand comparing the economic development and environmental deterioration of two country groups with comparable income levels —transitional CEE and non-transitional SEA countries from 1990 to 2006

7. Introduction—Purpose • Specific • Macroeconomic and emissions indicators • Percentage changes in macroeconomic and emissions indicators • Inverted-U curvilinear relationship • Significant fewer emissions in CEE

8. Introduction—Terminology • Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Hypothesis: Emissions EKC 0 GDP per capita

9. Introduction—Terminology Ownership of Instruments Economic Systems Private Market Capitalism Command Capitalism Central Decision making Private Command Socialism Market Socialism Public

10. Introduction—Terminology Economic Growth Theoretical: Change in the production capacity of a country over a certain period time Operational: GDP per capita in constant 2000 international dollars

11. Introduction—Terminology GDP Per Unit of Energy Use Theoretical GDP divided by the total energy used within a country Operational GDP per kilogram of oil equivalent of energy use in 2000 constant international dollars in purchasing power parity rate (PPP)

12. Introduction—Terminology Secondary Industrial to GDP Theoretical Contributions of industrial sector to total GDP of a society Operational Value added in industrial sector in constant 2000 international dollars

13. Introduction—Terminology Foreign Direct Investment Theoretical A long term investment by foreign investors who residentiary in a country and acquire ownership of an enterprise in another country. Operational Net inflows of foreign direct investment as percentage of GDP

14. Introduction—Terminology International Trade Theoretical Sum of a country’s total export of goods and services plus total import of goods and services Operational Percentage share of international trade of GDP

15. Introduction—Terminology Environmental Deterioration Theoretical: Aggravation of atmosphere pollution Operational: CO2: carbon dioxide (tons per capita) SO2:sulphur dioxide (kg per capita)

16. Introduction—Justification Significance Rare and unique in history Researchability Macroeconomic and environmental indicators are well documented in international organizations Feasibility Variables are measurable and definable in theoretical and empirical studies Time and timing Time and timing involution is accessible and management

17. IntroductionDelimitation and Scope • Economic develop and environmental emissions indicators • 8 CEE and 6 SEA countries • Transitional economies and market capitalism • High and middle income countries • 1990 to 2006

18. Literature ReviewTheoretical Models—micro perspective (2) Neoclassical Marginal Analysis (1) Elasticity Analysis Emissions Emissions Ε>1 Cost, Revenue MSC, f (production) Ε< 1 MSR, f (utilities) Emissions GDP per capita GDP per capita

19. Literature ReviewEmpirical Studies—macro perspective • Transboundary • Trade liberalization • Foreign direct investment • Latecomer Advantage Pollution havens Emissions EKC Race to the bottom Latecomer advantage Pollution halos 0 GDP per capita

20. Literature Review—Gaps Ownership of Instruments Market Capitalism Private Decision making Private Central Command Socialism Public

21. Research Methods—Research Questions • What are the macroeconomic indicators and per capita emissions of CEE and SEA countries from 1990 to 2006, or the most recent data available? • What are the over time percentage changes in macroeconomic indicators and percentage changes in per capita emissions of CEE and SEA countries from 1990 to 2006, or the most recent data available? • What are the differences in macroeconomic indicators and per capita emissions of CEE versus SEA countries from 1990 to 2006, or the most recent data available?

22. Research Methods—Research Hypotheses Hypothesis 1 There is a significant curvilinear explanatory relationship between macroeconomic indicators and per capita emissions in CEE countries from 1990 to 2006, or the most recent data available.

23. Research Methods—Research Hypotheses Hypothesis 2 There is a significant curvilinear explanatory relationship between macroeconomic indicators and per capita emissions in SEA countries from 1990 to 2006, or the most recent data available.

24. Research Methods—Research Hypotheses Hypothesis 3 There is a significant curvilinear explanatory relationship between percentage changes in macroeconomic indicators and percentage changes in per capita emissions in CEEcountries from 1990 to 2006, or the most recent data available.

25. Research Methods—Research Hypotheses Hypothesis 4 There is a significant curvilinear explanatory relationship between percentage changes in macroeconomic indicators and percentage changes in per capita emissions in SEA countries from 1990 to 2006, or the most recent data available.

26. Research Methods—Research Hypotheses Hypothesis 5 The percentage change in macroeconomicindicators and country categories are significant explanatory variables of the percentage changes in per capita emissions from 1990 to 2006, or the most recent data available.

27. Research Methods—Research Hypotheses Hypothesis 6 There are significant fewer per capita emissions in CEE countries than that in SEA countries from 1990 to 2006, or the most recent data available.

28. Research Methods—Hypothesized Relationship Secondary Industry to GDP Economic Growth: per capita GDP GDP per unit of energy use H1 toH5 H1 to H5 Economic Backgrounds H1 to H5 Industrialization H1 toH5 H5 EKC Hypothesis Global Linkage H5 H1 toH5 H5 CEE H1 to H5 H1 to H5 H6 CEE H1 toH5 Foreign direct investment Emissions H6 Existed in literature Being tested International trade

29. Research Methods—Research Design • A quantitative, non-experimental, correlational (explanatory), causal-comparative, cross country and time series secondary research design • Data from The World Bank and Stern (2005) were adopted to answer the research questions and test the hypotheses

30. Research Methods—Research Questions Answered Macroeconomic indicators: GDP per capita, GDP per unit of energy use, Secondary industrial to GDP, Foreign direct investment, International trade Emissions: CO2 and SO2 CEE versus SEA Each CEE and SEA countries and all CEE countries as one group and all SEA as another

31. Research Hypotheses Tested Research Methods—

32. Results—Descriptive StatisticsAverage GDP per capita by year Unit: in 2000 US Dollars n=128 in CEE n= 96 in SEA

33. Results—Descriptive StatisticsAverage GDP per capita by regions Unit: in 2000 US Dollars n=128 in CEE n= 96 in SEA US$4,258 US$2,393

34. Results—Descriptive Statistics Average GDP per capita by countries US$20,625 US$806 US$8,926 US$3,242 Unit: in 2000 US Dollars

35. Results—Descriptive StatisticsAverage GDP per unit of energy use by regions Unit: constant 2000 PPP dollar per kg of oil equivalency 4.40 3.75

36. Results—Descriptive StatisticsAverage shares of macro-indicators to GDP by regions 145 110 35 40 3.8 4.1

37. Results—Descriptive StatisticsAverage per capita CO2emissions Unit: per capita tons

38. Results—Descriptive StatisticsAverage per capita CO2 emissions by regions Unit: per capita tons 8.32 n=112 in CEE n= 84 in SEA 2.57

39. Results—Descriptive StatisticsAverage per capita CO2 emissions by countries 14.53 per capita tons 14.53 per capita tons 0.92 n=112 in CEE n= 84 in SEA 3.75 13.79

40. Results—Descriptive StatisticsAverage per capita SO2 emissions by years Unit: per capita kg

41. Results—Descriptive StatisticsAverage per capita SO2 emissions by regions Unit: per capita kg 747.36 396.51

42. Results—Descriptive StatisticsAverage per capita SO2 emissions by country 100 615 1,138 25.17 Unit: per capita kg

43. Results—Descriptive StatisticsPercentage changes in per capita GDP by year

44. Results—Descriptive StatisticsAverage percentage changes in indicators

45. Results—Descriptive StatisticsAverage percentage changes in per capita CO2 8.7 -5.4 2.7 2.4

46. Results—Descriptive StatisticsAverage percentage changes in per capita SO2 5.9 -14.9 -6.3 -6.7

47. Results—Inferential StatisticsHypotheses Testing:H1 to H4

48. Results—Inferential StatisticsHypotheses Testing:H5 and H6

49. Discussion—InterpretationsInferential Hypothesis Testing for CO2 emissions in CEE countries

50. Discussion—InterpretationsInferential Hypothesis Testing for SO2 emissions in CEE countries