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New baseline of the ICS subproject

New baseline of the ICS subproject. Technical Advisory Committee 2018-10 (TAC#18) Hector Novella, Deputy Project Manager. www.europeanspallationsource.se 2018-10-18. cTAC#18: Charge questions. c3) Concerning the new baseline for the ICS construction project plan:

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New baseline of the ICS subproject

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  1. New baseline of the ICS subproject Technical Advisory Committee 2018-10 (TAC#18) Hector Novella, Deputy Project Manager www.europeanspallationsource.se 2018-10-18

  2. cTAC#18: Charge questions c3) Concerning the new baseline for the ICS construction project plan: • Is the new baseline for the construction project plan appropriate - do you find any particular weaknesses? • Is the planning methodology, including planning quality objectives, sufficient and relevant? New baseline of the ICS subproject

  3. Outline • ICS Project status • Re-baselining method followed • End of Construction (how ICS transitions to Initial Operations) • Cost impact • Integrated Schedule • Re-baselined procurement plan • Examples of Work Breakdown Structures in ICS schedule • ICS risk management • ICS Q management • ICS control & monitoring (metrics) • Summary New baseline of the ICS subproject

  4. ICS Project status

  5. ICS project performance graph 2016-2020ICS project status New baseline of the ICS subproject

  6. ICS project EV graph 2018-08ICS project status (* No InKind included) • Current Status • Cumulative cost variance for ICS is within established variance reporting thresholds. • Cumulative schedule variance -3 850 k€ (Previous month -3 958 k€). • Cumulative SV for In-kind -1 882 k€ (Previous month -1 970 k€). Main contributors:MicroTCA deliveries (PSI) (-1 063k€) - delivered but not ticked off.EtherCAT deliverables (ESTONIA) (-583 k€) - re-planned but TA not amended. MEBT (ESS Bilbao) (-497 k€) - known delay. • Cumulative SV for cash -1 968 k€ (Previous month-1 988 k€).Main contributors: • Equipment (WP6): -1 421k€ (Previous month -1 472 k€). • Conclusion: The cash SV above reflects the ongoing activities during the reset of EV and will within a couple of months time come closer to ‘0’. The In-kind SV above reflects that updates are needed in the tick-off procedure, plan, and TA:s. New baseline of the ICS subproject

  7. ICS project EAC 2018-08ICS project status New baseline of the ICS subproject

  8. Re-baselining method

  9. ICS planning process foundationsRe-baselining method • Based on ESS Process for Planning (ESS-0019598) • Conformant with ISO/IEC 15288 (Systems Engineering). • Conformant with ESS Handbook for Engineering Management (ESS-0092276). • Approach taken: • ICS construction planning is Schedule oriented (vs Cost) and Time oriented (vs Resource). • Top-down approach for most of the plan, with some refinements bottom-up. • Rolling out detail in stages (every year). • One plan (work packages or work units are integrated). • Automated scheduling (supported by Primavera et al.). • Deliverable or Milestone-focused (seeking robustness to uncertainties). New baseline of the ICS subproject

  10. BoundariesRe-baselining method • Fixed budget for ICS. • ICS budget may be distributed among Work Packages according to ICS criteria. • ESS Integrated Master Schedule is our reference to report on the same milestones. • ESS top level requirements for reliability and availability set the quality level of ICS deliverables. New baseline of the ICS subproject

  11. Scheduling processRe-baselining method • Plan from the top down • Start thinking about the overall project deliverables • Break down into greater detail • Add tasks and milestones • Outlining deliverables and activities (in a measurable way) • Timescale in relation to detail • Key milestones at key decision points • Enter work against tasks • Best-guess (“duration” in exceptional cases; “work” = ManMonth) • Large-duration: rolling wave / estimated (late tasks) • Link related tasks together(logical sequence) • Benefit from L1, L1b, L2, L2b milestones • Resource load the schedule • IKC, personnel, services (contractors, travel, etc.) New baseline of the ICS subproject

  12. Top level scope decompositionRe-baselining method Work package 01 Management and administration Work package 06 Equipment Work package 07 Control system infrastructure Work package 09 Personnel safety systems Work package 05 Machine protection Work package 03 Software services Workpackage 08 Physics Work package 04 Hardware core Work package 14 Test Stands Workpackage 10 Integration - Accelerator Work package 11 Integration - Target Work package 12 Integration - Instruments Workpackage 13 Integration - Conventionalfacilities Work package 20 Installation New baseline of the ICS subproject

  13. ICS Requirements* • ICS Project Charter • ICS Planning • ICS Schedule • ICS Project Mgmt Plan** ICS planning implementation overviewRe-baselining method • ICS Concept input output input output output * Top level ** Pending New baseline of the ICS subproject

  14. Rationale under ICS planning implementationRe-baselining method To help seeing the relation of ICS activities with the rest of ESS systems, we can categorize them according to what is needed to “switch-on” the Machine. • ICS critical activities are: • PSS (Personnel Safety System) • MPS (Machine Protection System) • CS (Control System) integration • ICS enabling activities are: • Software applications and services • Hardware core systems • CS Infrastructure • CS integration enhancements • ICS complementing activities are: • Operations oriented applications • Physics oriented applications • High Dependencies on other Division’s specifications • Minimum Viable Product to guarantee Start ofUser Program for ICS activities New baseline of the ICS subproject

  15. Key Schedule Assumptions(1/2)Re-baselining method • Dependencies • ICS has strong dependencies to stakeholders’ schedules - much of our re-baselining follows re-baselined schedules from Accelerator, Target, NSS and CF projects. We assume that our stakeholders’ schedules are fixed and accurate. • We have discussed in-kind deliverables with in-kind partners - after they have re-baselined with Accelerator, Target and NSS. We assume that in-kind partner delivery estimates are accurate. • End of construction • ICS has a four-staged approach for the transition from Construction to Initial operations. The definition of these transition milestones has not been changed. We have assumed that the definition will not be changed. • Services frameworks • ICS is currently using commercial frameworks for services such as installation work. We assume that we can continue using these frameworks even if centralized commercial frameworks will be available. New baseline of the ICS subproject

  16. Key Schedule Assumptions (2/2)Re-baselining method • Budget and cost • ICS has only partially reached its in-kind budget objective.We assume cash-conversion of the unallocated ICS in-kind budget. • Through empirical experience, we have made (more) realistic assumptions regarding installation time and cost. • We have not taken any increase of staff or contracted staff cost/hour into consideration.We have assumed constant hourly planning rates for the years to come. • It has not been clear if the cost for lab space will be charged to the projects in the year to come or not.We have assumed that cost for lab space is taken centrally by ESS in the time period. New baseline of the ICS subproject

  17. Schedule development and maintenanceRe-baselining method • The new baseline plan has been developed in a top-down way, while still adapting to stakeholder’s changes. • Due to the high level of dependencies between ICS and stakeholders, the agreement on integration milestones (level 1b type) is very important. • Any change in plans of ICS stakeholders implies consequent adaptations of ICS plans. This means that there still is much work to strengthen the new baseline plan. • An internal working group was defined to work with detailing and aligning the ICS plan aiming for better quality in the plan. • The internal working group meets every week to coordinate and prioritize work on the planning, with a project alignment meeting involving all work package managers every second week. New baseline of the ICS subproject

  18. End of Construction, or how ICS transitions to Initial Operations phase

  19. BackgroundTransition to Initial-Operations phase • 2016-Q2, ICS project schedule was re-baselined • Better understanding of the technical scope • New (first) installation plan defined • ICS project completion expected by 2019-Q4 • Two major later updates • 2016-Q4, Staged approach to Initial operations phase implied a calendar update • 2017-Q2, Value engineering implied an adaptation of the scope • 2018-Q2, (this) ICS Project Schedule re-baseline • Better understanding of dependencies with other ESS sub-projects • Installation plan in execution New baseline of the ICS subproject

  20. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 ICS projectHighLevel Schedule 2016-Q2Transition to Initial-Operations phase Global & Project MS First Installations Handover Completed First Beam on Target #1: Isrc+LEBT #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 WP Integrations Controls ready for integrated testing #2: +RFQ+MEBT #3: +DTL1 #4: +DTL2-4 #5: +NCFE+... to DUMP NMX controls ready for cold commissioning 1st Bldg integration complete #6: to TARGET WP Personnel Safety Accelerator PSS-2 complete Accelerator PSS-1 Target PSS complete WP Machine Protection Beam Interlock System installation started Beam Interlock System ready for High power beam commissioning WP SW, HW & Infrastructure Timing system components ready for procurement Temporary control room operational New baseline of the ICS subproject

  21. ICS transition MS to Init-Ops 2018-Q2Transition to Initial-Operations phase MS L1: ICS ready for Target ready for BoT MS L1: ICS ready for Accelerator ready for BoD 2022-01-13 2020-11-30 MS L1: ICS ready for Test beamline and Bunker ready for hot commissioning MS L1: ICS components ready for initial operations independently 2018-12-21 2022-05-31 2018 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 28 days Today 29 days • The level 1 milestones represent finalization of significant deliverables from the ICS construction project. • It also signifies the transition of ICS staff from the construction project to the initial operations project. • This transition is carefully planned and cost estimated in the new baseline plan. 1 day 1 day 26 days 1 day 20 days New baseline of the ICS subproject

  22. Rationale for transition milestones in ICSTransition to Initial-Operations phase Original approved Changed Request: CR0093 (ESS-0089370) New baseline of the ICS subproject

  23. Critical path for ICS sub-projectTransition to Initial-Operations phase • Due to the high level of dependencies towards stakeholders’ schedules, and • Since our schedule also has a high degree of parallelism in order to integrate multiple stakeholder systems into the ICS, we are working with critical deliveries(deliverables that risk blocking our stakeholders) to represent our critical path. New baseline of the ICS subproject

  24. Cost impact

  25. Factors driving ICS cost changesCost impact • Stakeholders announced delays and extended their plans to accommodate those delays • This means that the construction phase is longer than previously planned • ICS will need to keep staff for a longer time in the construction project than previously planned • For ICS this is about 11 M€ • The ICS construction cost estimate was created as ICS spawned from Accelerator division in 2014 • In 2016, a complete re-planning was made. The new plan did not change the total cost estimate of existing identified scope but redistributed some budget between work packages • In the re-planning, it was discovered that large parts of the ICS installation efforts had been omitted in previous plans. For ICS this is about 5 M€ New baseline of the ICS subproject

  26. Milestones - Construction -> Initial OperationsCost impact • The transition for ICS from Construction to Initial operations phase is defined by four major milestones • ICS Components ready for initial operations 2018-12-21 -> 2018-12-21 • ICS ready for Accelerator RBOT 2019-06-23 -> 2020-11-30 • ICS ready for Target RBOT 2020-03-31 -> 2022-01-30 • ICS ready for NSS Test Beamline 2020-10-15 -> 2022-05-31 New baseline of the ICS subproject

  27. ICS re-baselined budgetCost impact 1 Remaining budget = Approved budget - Actual cost 2 Contingency call: Cost to go through a Change Request to Change Control Board process (2018-04 - 05) 3 Forecast: Cost expected to be incurred but not yet approved as a budget change; unavoidable costs not in baseline 4 Risk: Cost estimates that the subproject will actively work to mitigate New baseline of the ICS subproject

  28. Summary of Cost Changes by CategoryCost impact • Cost changes for each category • Scope missing in original estimate (updated in 2018-04) • Installation cost 4.7 M€ • Cost for delay in transition to Init-Ops milestones • Staff: 8.2 M€ • Contractors: 2.2 M€ • Services and Travel: 0.8 M€ New baseline of the ICS subproject

  29. Integrated schedule

  30. Key integration milestones (1/5)Integrated schedule MS L1: ICS ready for Target ready for BoT MS L1: ICS ready for Accelerator ready for BoD 13/01/2022 30/11/2020 MS L1: ICS ready for Test beamline and Bunker ready for hot commissioning MS L1: ICS components ready for initial operations independently 21/12/2018 31/05/2022 2018 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Today 0 days L1b: PSS-0 complete 1/6/2018 64 days L1b: H01 CUB ready for ESS Server Hall installation start 2/7/2018 - 3/9/2018 51 days L1b: Electrical power information from CF available for ICS (access to the power scada in H06 clarified) 1/11/2018 - 21/12/2018 120 days L1b: IFC1410/IFC1420 test environment ready for stakeholders 2/1/2019 - 1/5/2019 New baseline of the ICS subproject

  31. Key integration milestones (2/5)Integrated schedule MS L1: ICS ready for Target ready for BoT MS L1: ICS ready for Accelerator ready for BoD 13/01/2022 30/11/2020 MS L1: ICS ready for Test beamline and Bunker ready for hot commissioning MS L1: ICS components ready for initial operations independently 21/12/2018 31/05/2022 2018 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Today 56 days L1b: RF Cell and LLRF Control ready 4/2/2019 - 1/4/2019 26 days L1b: PSS-1 validation start 17/6/2019 - 12/7/2019 61 days L1b: MP-SoS integration of design for Accelerator systems complete 3/6/2019 - 2/8/2019 68 days L1b: Controls for Cryogenic Distribution System for super-conductive linac installed and ready for operation 29/7/2019 - 4/10/2019 New baseline of the ICS subproject

  32. Key integration milestones (3/5)Integrated schedule MS L1: ICS ready for Target ready for BoT MS L1: ICS ready for Accelerator ready for BoD 13/01/2022 30/11/2020 MS L1: ICS ready for Test beamline and Bunker ready for hot commissioning MS L1: ICS components ready for initial operations independently 21/12/2018 31/05/2022 2018 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Today 53 days L1b: SRR #2 - Beam through RFQ + MEBT (and DTL1) 19/8/2019 - 11/10/2019 47 days L1b: PSS-1 re-validation start 16/12/2019 - 31/1/2020 55 days L1b: SRR #3 - Beam through DTL1-4 1/3/2020 - 24/4/2020 33 days L1b: PSS-Accelerator complete 7/9/2020 - 9/10/2020 40 days L1b: SRR #4 - Beam through DTL5 to DMPL 2/11/2020 - 11/12/2020 New baseline of the ICS subproject

  33. Key integration milestones (4/5)Integrated schedule MS L1: ICS ready for Target ready for BoT MS L1: ICS ready for Accelerator ready for BoD 13/01/2022 30/11/2020 MS L1: ICS ready for Test beamline and Bunker ready for hot commissioning MS L1: ICS components ready for initial operations independently 21/12/2018 31/05/2022 2018 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Today 138 days L1b: Target cryoplant (Helium) installation complete and ready for ICS installation start 1/7/2018 - 16/11/2018 96 days L1b: Target ready for ICS installation start - Target cabinets ready 7/10/2019 - 10/1/2020 45 days L1b: Access to D02 building to start Technical network installation granted by Target 2/12/2019 - 15/1/2020 129 days L1b: Access to D02 building to start Main control room installation granted by CF 9/9/2019 - 15/1/2020 152 days L1b: PSS ODH for Target validated 4/5/2020 - 2/10/2020 60 days L1b: Target Monolith systems WP4 - Functional/System Test -with ICS- start 1/2/2021 - 1/4/2021 47 days L1b: Target wheel WP2 - Functional / System Test – with ICS – completed 13/9/2021 - 29/10/2021 New baseline of the ICS subproject 93 days L1b: Target cryogenic cooling (He+LH2) system tests with ICS completed 2/8/2021 - 2/11/2021 35 days L1b: Target Station start integrated system test w/o beam with ICS 1/10/2021 - 4/11/2021

  34. Key integration milestones (5/5)Integrated schedule MS L1: ICS ready for Target ready for BoT MS L1: ICS ready for Accelerator ready for BoD 13/01/2022 30/11/2020 MS L1: ICS ready for Test beamline and Bunker ready for hot commissioning MS L1: ICS components ready for initial operations independently 21/12/2018 31/05/2022 2018 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Today 92 days L1b: Test beamline ready for ICS controls installations 5/7/2021 - 5/10/2021 89 days L1b: Test beamline ready for ICS PSS installations 19/7/2021 - 15/10/2021 78 days L1b: Test beamline assembled and ready for ICS (PSS) commissioning test 13/12/2021 - 28/2/2022 1 day L1b: Bunker ready for ICS controls installations 27/4/2022 1 day L1b: Bunker ready for ICS PSS installations 27/4/2022 New baseline of the ICS subproject

  35. Key Level 2 MilestonesIntegrated schedule The level 2 milestones are relevant ICS and also include some important in-kind milestones: New baseline of the ICS subproject

  36. Schedule Delays: Lessons LearnedIntegrated schedule • It is difficult to optimize the ICS staffing plan to match peaks of stakeholder activity • Staffing up too early would consume unnecessary budget and, too late would cause stakeholder delays • Staffing has to be continuously updated - good controls engineers are not available on short notice • Lesson learned: intense interaction with stakeholder planners is essential - not only technical • ICS in-kind projects are more difficult than expected • We have had to learn how to do in-kind “from scratch” • It is difficult for us to affect decisions and process progress on a country-ministerial level • Lesson learned: ICS in-kind projects need intense project management - not only technical • ESS internal technical coordination is not trivial • Sometimes technical tracks and ideas have been pursued with little coordination • Technology/methodology standards have been hard to agree on without a strong centralized approach • Lesson learned: technical/methodology discussions take time - centralizing early helps reduce delays New baseline of the ICS subproject

  37. Schedule Delays: Corrective MeasuresIntegrated schedule • Mitigations from ICS have primarily focused on improving and intensifying stakeholder interaction - especially when it comes to planning • Improved contact points in all work packages • Introduction of in-kind manager (end of 2016) has helped reducing and mitigating delays - but is still not trivial • Other mitigation actions focus on the planning and execution of project scope • With the new baseline plan, ICS can adjust to new, more understandable stakeholder plans • ICS had used experiences from early activities to better estimate and sequence plans such as installation and commissioning • The experiences can also be used to tune the execution speed/cost balance towards stakeholder’s plans In general many ICS activities have a dependence to/from stakeholder activities. Delays on any side have a negative effect on both sides. New baseline of the ICS subproject

  38. Re-baselined procurement plan

  39. Working with ICS procurement plan 2018Re-baselined procurement plan • ICS procurement plan [ESS-0291029] • Built with agreement from all ICS work package managers. • Trying to find synergies among ICS groups. • Gives an idea of work-volume to help ESS procurement group plan their staffing needs. • Consumption of framework services. • Renewals of framework services. • With direct link towards Primavera WP-06 Equipment. • ESS procurement working group. • Meeting every second week to review and update the status of upcoming procurement needs. • ESS procurement coordination forum. • Meeting once a month to prioritize procurements across divisions. New baseline of the ICS subproject

  40. ESS WG Procurement PlanRe-baselined procurement plan New baseline of the ICS subproject

  41. ESS procurement coordination forumRe-baselined procurement plan • Example of agreed prioritization for ICS on w1840: Primavera P6 ID New baseline of the ICS subproject

  42. Examples of WorkBreakdownStructures

  43. WP-04 Hardware Core Components New baseline of the ICS subproject

  44. WP-05 Machine ProtectionSystem New baseline of the ICS subproject

  45. WP-07 Control SystemInfrastructure New baseline of the ICS subproject

  46. WP-09 Personnel Safety System New baseline of the ICS subproject

  47. WP-20 Installation (1/2) New baseline of the ICS subproject

  48. WP-20 Installation (2/2) New baseline of the ICS subproject

  49. ICS installation home (Confluence + JIRA) 06 ICS installation home 01 Introduction 02 ICS installation process 03 ICS installation schedulling 04 Installation coordination meetings and lessons learnt 05 ICS installation actions per system group (JIRA) 06 ICS installation details per building (JIRA) 07 ICS installation MoM 08 ICS installation issues 09 ICS on-site rentals/services tracking New baseline of the ICS subproject

  50. ICS risk Management

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