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Model intercomparison

Latest thinking of the emission inventory community Jochen Theloke, Hugo Denier van der Gon and Chris Dore. based on official data. based on ESPREME data. MSCE-HM = 0.62 Obs CMAQ = 0.68 Obs. MSCE-HM = 0.32 Obs CMAQ = 0.32 Obs. 30-40% underestimation. 70% underestimation.

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Model intercomparison

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  1. Latest thinking of the emission inventory communityJochen Theloke, Hugo Denier van der Gon and Chris Dore

  2. based on official data based on ESPREME data MSCE-HM = 0.62 Obs CMAQ = 0.68 Obs MSCE-HM = 0.32 Obs CMAQ = 0.32 Obs 30-40% underestimation 70% underestimation Model intercomparison Annual meanCd concentration in precipitation (2000)

  3. Emissions of As, Cd, Cr, Ni and Pb in Europe in the year 2000 (ESPREME data base)

  4. Future Projections of Pb emissions to air for the EU27

  5. Theloke, Denier van der Gon, Pacyna, Kummer, Geftler, Friedrich, Nitter, Überarbeitung der Schwermetallkapitel im CORINAIR Guidebook zur Verbesserung der Emissionsinventare und der Berichterstattung im Rahmen der Genfer Luftreinhaltekonvention http://www.umweltdaten.de/publikationen/fpdf-l/3662.pdf

  6. Theloke, Denier van der Gon, Pacyna, Kummer, Geftler, Friedrich, Nitter, Überarbeitung der Schwermetallkapitel im CORINAIR Guidebook zur Verbesserung der Emissionsinventare und der Berichterstattung im Rahmen der Genfer Luftreinhaltekonvention http://www.umweltdaten.de/publikationen/fpdf-l/3662.pdf

  7. Theloke, Denier van der Gon, Pacyna, Kummer, Geftler, Friedrich, Nitter, Überarbeitung der Schwermetallkapitel im CORINAIR Guidebook zur Verbesserung der Emissionsinventare und der Berichterstattung im Rahmen der Genfer Luftreinhaltekonvention http://www.umweltdaten.de/publikationen/fpdf-l/3662.pdf

  8. Missing Sources • Accidental/malicious fires • dwellings, factories, other buildings, vehicle fires • Demolition • Corrosion/abrasion of metal structures • Galvanizing • Non-thermal processing of scrap metals • e.g. shredding of scrap metals • Industrial processes • e.g. cement batching, quarrying, powder coating • Abrasion of road surfaces by motor vehicles

  9. Non-anthropogenic Sources Non-anthropogenic Sources • Natural Sources • not currently included or estimated. Estimates available from Ilyin & Travnikov (2005) • Marine Sources • not currently included or estimated. Estimates available from Ilyin & Travnikov (2005) • Resuspension • Estimates available from Ilyin & Travnikov (2005) suggest significant contributions for Pb and Cd (trebling the 2004 Cd emissions in the UK). • However estimates from Vincent and Passant (2006) for Cd, Pb, As, Ni suggested resuspension was not a major source.

  10. Further progress has been made in assessing sources and emissions of HMs to the atmosphere at a country and regional (European) level At least 3 European wide emission inventories have been presented by groups of emission experts for the reference year 2000: ESPREME (for HMs), TNO ( HMs and POPs), and MSC-E (HMs and POPs) Emission estimates prepared by expert groups are higher than the estimates provided by countries (so-called official estimates) The modellers community recommended to use the research based emission inventories for HMs e.g. ESPREME in their estimates of concentrations, deposition, and critical load due to more completeness and consistency (=> but not more accuracy!!! ) Conclusion (1)

  11. There is a need for more iteration between modellers and emission inventory to reduce uncertainties. Information on specific episodes and/or regions where the mismatch between modelled and observed concentrations is largest may give us clues which sources to review and focus on. Adjusted inventories could go into the models again, see any improvement? Lacking of consistency between national estimates To by-pass this problem it would be good to also work on consistent "scientific" emission databases which do not necessary match with the offcial reported data, do NOT claim to be true but are consistent and thereby better suited for analysis, scenario studies etc. Conclusion (2)

  12. There are improvements need to be made However we are currently limited by data availability Recommendations for Future work Point Sources: Obtain more information on whether fugitive emissions are included in current estimates Combustion Sources: Obtain more comprehensive data on metal content of fuels Brake and Tyre Wear: Review and consolidate existing literature information “Missing” Sources: Make some initial estimates by improving PM10 estimates (not straightforward!) Natural Sources: Incorporate estimates into emissions inventory Validation & Verification After conducting these improvements, reassess the estimates derived from modelling in light of updated emissions inventory estimates. Conclusion (3)

  13. Thank you for your attention

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