ENSEMBLES – Progress Report WP6.2 meeting, Helsinki

1. ENSEMBLES – Progress Report WP6.2 meeting, Helsinki Chris Hewitt, Met Office Hadley Centre, April 2007 Project Office can be contacted on ensemblesfp6@metoffice.gov.uk Web site is http://www.ensembles-eu.org

2. Strategic Objectives • Develop an ensemble prediction system based on global andregional Earth System models, validated against observations and analyses, to produce a probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales • Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System • Exploit the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance

3. System development and assembly Understanding, evaluation Impacts, Scenarios and policy Model ‘engine’: hindcasts, climate integrations Research Themes (RTs) summary

4. Progress: GCM seasonal to decadal Three different seasonal to decadal forecast systems to estimate model uncertainty: • Multi-model system for s2d forecasts installed at ECMWF built from EUROSIP operational activities and DEMETER experience • Perturbed parameter system, built from the decadal prediction system (DePreSys) at the Met Office • Stochastic physics system, from the CASBS system developed for medium-range forecasting at ECMWF Design of a set of common experiments to determine the benefits of each approach. All show promising aspects. Improved ocean data assimilation systems for s2d prediction

5. Progress: GCM centennial Multi-model ACC simulations (IPCC 4AR) • Conducted historical runs (1860-2000) • and scenario runs (IPCC A1B, A2, B1) • including Hadley Centre perturbed parameter runs, maybe other GCMs

6. Defined RCM domain ERA40 hindcats (1961-2000) at 50km resolution: 11 completed, 7 already in the central archive ERA40 runs at 25km resolution underway Matrix of driving GCMs/RCMs devised 0.22º (25km) grid mesh (courtesy of Burkhardt Rockel) Progress: regional modelling

7. OLD (ECA daily dataset)NEW Progress (continued) • Scientific analyses (e.g. cloud feedbacks, carbon, sea-ice, …) • Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios (including provision of interim pdfs from PPE to RT6) • Publicly available Climate Explorer http://climexp.knmi.nl/ further developed as integrated diagnostic tool • Producing daily gridded datasets for Europe (on same grid as RCMs), particularly for evaluating extremes • New emissions scenario developed (A1B baseline, stabilise to 450ppmv CO2eq)

8. Progress (continued) • Editable publications page available, hosted by UREADMM • Publications of ENSEMBLES results starting to appear in journals. ENSEMBLES Technical Reports series created • Need to increase the publicity of the results of the project • Participation at international meetings: EGU, AGU, EMS, ESSP, side-events at COP/MOP, joint meetings with WHO and OECD • West Africa to be the non-European RCM domain later in project • We are developing links with other projects and programmes (e.g. AMMA, ADAM, CECILIA, CIRCE, CLAVIER, DYNAMITE, Euro-Limpacs, GMES, MERSEA, QUANTIFY, WMO/WCRP mainly CLIVAR and GEWEX) • Our General Assembly is growing in popularity, internally and externally. GA2007 in Prague, 12-16 November • Expanding the “affiliated partners” (16 currently, more requested)

9. Affiliated partners • FAO, Rene Gommes, RT5&6 • WHO, Bettine Menne, RT5 • University of Zurich, Nadine Salzmann, RT6 • ESSC, John Christy, RT5 • Dept. Geography, Nat. Univ. of Ireland, Kieran Hickey, RT5 • NCAR, Guy Brasseur, Jerry Meehl, Linda Mearns, RT2A&2B • FRGCG, Michio Kawamiya, RT1&2A • CCSR (University of Tokyo), Masahide Kimoto, RT4 • Nat. Inst. Earth Sciences, Toru Nozawa/Seita Emori, RT2A • SINTEF Energy Research, Atle Harby, RT6 • University of Copenhagen, Eigil Kaas, RT2A • University of Exeter, David Stephenson, RT4 (&5?) • Nat. Acad. Of Scientists of Ukraine, Alexander Palonski, RT6 • University of Newcastle, Hayley Fowler • OURANOS Climate Analysis group, Daniel Caya/Diane Chaumont, RT2B • Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics Network (CRCMD), Colin Jones

10. Stream 2 simulations – GCMs • s2d hindcasts 1960 onwards (previously 1991-2001) • Hindcasts underway. Expected completion Aug08 • Models: IFS/HOPE (ECMWF), ARPEGE/OPA (CNRM and CERFACS), HadGEM1a and DePreSys (METO-HC), ECHAM/OM1 (IfM-GEOMAR), INGV • 1860-2000 historical simulations and 21st Century scenarios using updated models and E1 (previously A1B, A2, B1) • Spin-up of control runs underway • 20thC historical simulations by Aug07, may be 3 months later • 21stC scenarios expected Aug08 • Models: DKCM (DMI), HadGEM2-AO and HadCM3C (METO-HC), MPIMET, EGMAM (FUB), CNRM, CNRS-IPSL

11. Stream 2 simulations – RCMs • ERA40 hindcasts (1961-2000) at 25km. • Most in data archive, aiming for all by June 07 • 1950-2050/2100 (A1B and different driving GCMs) at 25km • Due Aug07, may be 4 months later • Models: METO-HC, SMHI, MPIMET, ICTP, CNRM, ETH, DMI, UCLM, KNMI, C4I, GKSS, CHMI/CUNI, Met.no • RT3 RCM system developed, for use in RT2B by end April 07 • Weighting of members of RCM ensembles, due Aug07 • Recommendations and guidance on methods for construction of probabilistic regional climate scenarios by Feb08 • Assessment of robustness of sds techniques using GCM and RCM output by Feb08

12. Plans for 2007 • Develop data archives • s2d @ ECMWF building on DEMETER database • RCM @ DMI building on PRUDENCE database • GCM @ MPIMET (http://ensembles.wdc-climate.de) building on IPCC WCDC activities • Daily gridded dataset for surface climate variables for Europe, due Aug 07 • Develop impacts models (e.g. crops, water resources, energy) • Develop statistical downscaling tools • Improved estimates for changes in extreme events • Workshops (Joint ENSEMBLES/CLIVAR workshop; 5th Study Conference on BALTEX)

13. Outreach plans • Further develop links with CLIVAR: • joint workshop with Task Force on Seasonal Prediction, June 2007 • discussions with WGCM • Further develop links with other WCRP projects: • joint workshop with CFMIP, April 2007 • GEWEX, e.g. joint involvement in BALTEX conference, June 2007 • Develop links with other EC projects (e.g. AMMA joint workshop, Feb07) • ENSEMBLES General Assemblies are now attracting other groups

14. Concluding remarks – innovative work • Brings together largely separate communities and integrates world-leading European research: s2d,anthropogenic climate change, global modellers, regional modellers (dynamical and statistical downscaling),scientific understanding,evaluation with observations,application modellers to deliver climate impacts, emission scenario developers, training programmes • Multi-disciplinary approach allows exchange of knowledge, ideas and techniques – for example extensive work on extremes • Multi-model ensemble-based probability approach will quantify uncertainty, increase understanding, influence the development of the next generation of models, leading to uncertainty reduction in the future • Examples of new products: • multi-model RCM system at 25km resolution • probabilistic methods for use for GCMs, RCMs, impact models • probabilistic predictions from s2d2c timescales to explore impacts • gridded observations for Europe with estimate of uncertainty • public availability of large datasets • developments to the publicly available Climate Explorer • on-line tools for users to downscale Ensembles simulations

15. Questions