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1. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page date: 7 August 2012

09. 1. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page date: 7 August 2012. Title : Enhanced use of GOES for estimating land surface wetness with application to wildfire forecasting at the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Status : Progress Report Project Leads:

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1. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page date: 7 August 2012

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  1. 09 1. FY12-13 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Pagedate: 7 August 2012 Title: Enhanced use of GOES for estimating land surface wetness with application to wildfire forecasting at the NOAA Storm Prediction Center Status: Progress Report Project Leads: Robert M RabinNOAA/NSSLrabin@ssec.wisc.edu Phillip Bothwell NOAA/NWS/SPCphillip.bothwell@noaa.gov Other Participants: Marouane Temimi NOAA/CREST/CCNY Jan Stepinski CREST/CCNY student 11

  2. 2. Project Summary • Provide estimates of surface dryness from rate of daytime warming • Validate GOES-based dryness index with independent estimates: AMSR-E, SMOS, and in-situ data 22

  3. 3. Motivation / Justification • Supports NOAA Mission Goal(s):Weather and Water, Climate • Addresses need for improved estimates of surface dryness and fuel loads for forecasting wildfires (SPC) and model initialization • New use of GOES observations • Implementation completed but validation needed 33

  4. 4. Methodology Validate GOES-based Dryness Index with temporal and spatial patterns of: University of Amsterdam/NASA multi-sensor products of surface soil moisture, vegetation water content, and land surface temperature (Owe et al. 2008, Holmes et al., 2009) SMOS L-Band estimates of soil moisture (European Space Agency) In situ soil moisture: such as are available CREST network, OK meso network Surface Bowen ratio and evapotranspiration from the GOES-based ALEXI model (previously funded GIMPAP project). 44

  5. 5. Expected Outcomes New tool to provide fire weather forecasters daily changes in surface wetness and fuel loads. It is expected that the products will be enhanced with the availability of GOES-R data; especially with the enhanced resolution and capability of directly estimating NDVI from the ABI Index will be more readily accepted with further validation 55

  6. 6. First Year - Preliminary Results • Began comparisons of GOES dryness index with the University of Amsterdam products of surface soil moisture, vegetation water content (based on AMSR-E) for 2011. • Expect negative correlation between soil moisture and GOES dryness index. Magnitude of correlation: • depends on land surface type • exhibits a seasonal dependence Shrub, Grassland: negative early in growing season Forest, Crop: negative later in growing season Starting comparisons with in-situ soil moisture (Milbrook, NY NOAA/CREST station) 66

  7. GOES-13 Heating Rate: 25 June-09 July 2011 Yellow/Red: Dry Green: Wet

  8. GOES-13 Heating Rate Anomaly: 25 June-09 July 2011

  9. Sample scatterplot Surface type: scrub Correlation: -.60 Date of Scatter plot AMSR-E problem sensing moisture through dense vegetation?

  10. Forest Crop Grasslands corr = -0.38 corr = -0.29 corr = -0.10 corr = 0.12 corr = 0.48 corr = 0.37 Unexpected positive Correlation: Lack of data? Next steps: Segregate results by NDVI USGS land use

  11. 7. Possible Path to Operations Already available in NAWIPS at SPC Further Refinement as needed Implement at NESDIS SAB Make product available to AWIPS2 1111

  12. 8. FY13 Milestones FY 2012: 1. Acquire and process data for validation 2. Analyze and compare AMSR-E, SMOS (if available) and in situ data FY 2013: 1. Publish results 2. Implement and train for use at SAB and elsewhere 1212

  13. 9. Funding Request (K) 1313

  14. 10. Spending Plan FY13 Travel support (NSSL): $1.5 K $ 1.5K Travel (R. Rabin) Q2 and Q3 2 trips Norman-NESDIS/SAB (Maryland) 1414

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