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Ryan Howard’s Unique Journey to the Big Leagues

Ryan Howard’s Unique Journey to the Big Leagues. John D. Cappello jcappello@optimal-design.com Cell 609-970-4779. 1. Introduction. SABR Member since 2007 Stats & Strat-o-matic fanatic in ’70s MSEE Drexel University – Comp HW Engineer “Stealing Greatness” coming March 2010. 2.

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Ryan Howard’s Unique Journey to the Big Leagues

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  1. Ryan Howard’s Unique Journey to the Big Leagues John D. Cappello jcappello@optimal-design.com Cell 609-970-4779 1

  2. Introduction • SABR Member since 2007 • Stats & Strat-o-matic fanatic in ’70s • MSEE Drexel University – Comp HW Engineer • “Stealing Greatness” coming March 2010 2

  3. The Great Ones Arrive Early • Bill James: “Any hitter who is destined to become a great ballplayer will reach the majors at an early age. I know of no clear-cut exception to this rule in the history of baseball.” • 27 years ago in 1982 Abstract • One exception: Ryan Howard • Late arrival defies all that he’s accomplished so far • Delay more complicated than just Jim Thome 3

  4. Power hitter • Comparison to greats • 500 HR club • Ruth: pitcher to hitter • McGwire/Schmidt 4a

  5. Howard 2+ yrs later • Starter at 26 1/2 4b

  6. 400 HR club • Active projections • McGriff 4c

  7. Howard still 2+ yrs later • RH “latest bloomer” 4d

  8. Other half of story • HR Rate • McGwire: 2 halves • RH: mind-boggling • Disclaimer • RH: Expect a drop 5

  9. Ryan’s HUGE Career Numbers • Start like Kiner’s • Fastest to 100 games • Benchmark – MVP voting • 56 HRs on 9/8/2006 6

  10. CITIBANK MYTH – Raw HRs • Exaggerated influence • Citibank Park great place to hit • RH: No preference 7a

  11. Forbes Field and Ralph Kiner • Demo of sig. ballpark effect • 1946 – Forbes Left Field 365’ • 1947 – Greenberg, bullpen (18/25) • “Greenberg’s Gardens” => “Kiner’s Korner” • Kiner: 62% HRs at Forbes ’47-’52 • RH: ballpark not so obvious *SABR HR Log – David Vincent 7b

  12. CITIBANK MYTH – HR Rate • Get around “absolute-ness” raw #’s • Slight favor to Citibank Park • 14.1 still 40+ HRs in 600 AB • RH: Monster HR hitter anywhere 7c

  13. Howard’s Scatter Plot - 2006 season - (hittrackeronline.com) • Excellent distribution • Typical pwr hitter will pull - smaller “wheelhouse” in strike zone • RH: no safe spot horizontally 8a

  14. Howard’s Scatter Plot - 2007 season - (hittrackeronline.com) 8b

  15. Howard’s Scatter Plot - 2008 season - (hittrackeronline.com) 8c

  16. Pujols’s Scatter Plot - 2006 season - (hittrackeronline.com) • > 50% pulled • Even for high-average hitter 8d

  17. King of the K • Write down 180-200 K’s • MReynolds, JCust • Theory: HRs come at expense of K’s, lower AVE • But, wait a minute…he did hit .313 in ’06 • Charlie Manual, 2004: “He doesn’t strike out because he strides too quick and tries to hit the ball too hard…he strikes out because he waits to see the ball. He lets the ball get too deep on him, and hekind of rushes. And that’s a good sign. That’s very good.” 9a

  18. Ryan’s Hot and Cold Streaks • Examined game-by-game #’s for trends • Difficult with Pujols, Musial, Gwynn • RH: #’s show definite ON-OFF switch • Judgment call 9b

  19. Ryan’s Hot and Cold Streaks COLD .159 – 20 HR – 248 K (20 HR, 240 K per 600 AB) HOT .331 – 155 HR – 431 K (66 HR, 182 K per 600 AB) (Career Split: 70/30) • RH: Individual seasons have similar splits • Batting AVE correlated with HRs • Don’t talk about GThomas, RDeer, DKingman • RH: Different breed 9c

  20. Historically great success, so…WHAT TOOK HIM SO LONG? • We know about Thome • Elite HR Hitters in history + Bill James • RH: What was so “un-special” early on? Jeff Manto (Howard’s manager at single-A in Lakewood): • “Too raw – no fundamentals” • “Far from major league ready – no sure thing” • “Had to hit his way to the big leagues” • “Developmental joy.” Mike Arbuckle (Phils asst. GM during Howard’s development): • “Club philosophy: Player development takes time” (see Utley, Chase) • “Ryan had contact issues” • “Flier in the 5th round” • “Rather have Thome for new ballpark” • “Other teams also concerned” (trade rejections) 10

  21. How did Albert do it? • Practically same age • 4 years difference ROYs • Pujols: Unwanted to Superstar in < 2 years 11

  22. Concluding Remarks… • Questions? • Two basic observations • With HR spread to all fields + .331 AVE during HR streaks = “NEVER TRY TO PULL!” • With late arrival + dominating performance, RH one-of-a-kind in history, will follow WStargell, WMcCovey into HOF

  23. Special thanks to: • www.baseball-reference.com • SABR HR Log (David Vincent) • www.hittrackeronline.com (Greg Rybarczyk) • www.highbeam.com • Jeff Manto • Mike Arbuckle

  24. Ryan Howard: pitch-by-pitch breakdown Albert Pujols: pitch-by-pitch breakdown

  25. Barry Bonds: pitch-by-pitch breakdown

  26. Albert Pujols: pitch-by-pitch breakdown

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