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Methods for Leakage Estimation

Methods for Leakage Estimation. Dr. P. Sudha Centre for Ecological Sciences Indian Institute of Science Bangalore. Estimation of Leakage. Concept: Implementation of mitigation project should not lead to loss of environmental or C-benefits outside project boundary

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Methods for Leakage Estimation

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  1. Methods for Leakage Estimation Dr. P. Sudha Centre for Ecological Sciences Indian Institute of Science Bangalore

  2. Estimation of Leakage • Concept: Implementation of mitigation project should not lead to loss of environmental or C-benefits outside project boundary • Definition: “the net anthropogenic emissions by sources of GHGs and removal by sinks, which occur outside the project boundary and which is attributable to the (CDM) project activity".

  3. Types of Leakage • Primary leakage • Shift sources of biomass extraction and grazing • Shifting land conversion • Secondary leakage • Incentives leading to increased CO2 emissions • Positive spill over • No/Low Leakage Potential • Moderate/High Leakage Potential

  4. Methods for monitoring leakage • Monitoring by Area • Project activity boundaries • Regional/local boundaries • Global market boundaries • Monitoring by Key indicators

  5. Approach and Methods • Historical Records: Based on past records of land use conversion, tree felling, • From FD, Land Survey office • Participatory rural appraisal (PRA): • Group discussion with local stakeholders using maps • Locations of past and future land conversion • Locations and extent of fuelwood and timber extraction

  6. Leakage Estimation Resulting from Land Conversion • Estimate the ‘Base-year’ C-stock in different land use systems. • Step 1: Estimate land use pattern - land survey • Step 2: Estimate C-stock for each LUS by ‘plot method’ • Step 3: Through PRA, estimate the potential rates of land conversion for each LUS, • Step 4: Estimate the net loss of C-stock based on C-stock in ‘Base-year’ • Step 5: Estimate the aggregate carbon emission due to LUS and leakage of carbon benefits for the period selected.

  7. Leakage Estimation Resulting from Biomass Extraction Estimate and locate on a map, different LUS likely to be subjected to biomass extraction outside the project boundary Locate LUS already subjected to biomass extraction in the project area Estimate C-stock for ‘Base-year’ Through PRA, estimate the extent of land likely to be subjected to extraction of biomass Using estimates of C-stock in ‘Base-year’ for estimate the net loss of C-stock (tC/ha) Estimate the aggregate carbon emission, due to biomass extraction, to obtain total leakage of carbon benefits during the period selected.

  8. Leakage of carbon benefits • Leakage during period selected = • [(Area converted in each land use system) x (C-stock change/ha)] + [(Area subjected to biomass extraction) x (C-stock change/ha)]

  9. Factors contributing to leakage

  10. Options for Responding to Leakage • Project-level approaches • Project design elements incorporated in projects • Re-estimation of net GHG benefits • Macro-level approaches • National and regional baselines • Risk premiums and adjustment coefficients

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