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The Scale of a Sustainable Bioenergy Resource

The Scale of a Sustainable Bioenergy Resource. Elliott Campbell Assistant Professor College of Engineering University of California, Merced. Climate. Economies. Water. Growth of US Ethanol Production. 2008 Corn Harvest.

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The Scale of a Sustainable Bioenergy Resource

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  1. The Scale of a Sustainable Bioenergy Resource • Elliott Campbell • Assistant Professor • College of Engineering • University of California, Merced

  2. Climate

  3. Economies

  4. Water

  5. Growth of US Ethanol Production 2008 Corn Harvest Ethanol consumes 29% of the US corn harvest, but provides only 2% of US transportation energy

  6. Biofuel Impacts: Food Prices (Johansson and Azar, Climatic Change, 2007)

  7. Biofuel Impacts: Ecosystem Emissions (Fargione et al., Science, 2008)

  8. Roadmap • Scale of the Resource • Crop Yields • Land Areas • Energy Conversion Pathways

  9. 1) Scale of the Resource

  10. Integrated Assessment Method 1) Abandoned agriculture areas from historical land use data (HYDE, SAGE) 2) Exclude agriculture-to-forest and agriculture-to-urban (MODIS12C1) 3) High estimate of potential yields from ecosystem model (CASA) 4) Regional bioenergy potential on abandoned agriculture lands. 1700 1710 1720

  11. Area of Abandoned Agriculture (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, ES&T, 2008)

  12. Potential Bioenergy from Abandoned Agriculture (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, ES&T, 2008)

  13. Field Trials • Unplanned Experiments • EBI Model Inter-comparison • Top-Down Yields from Carbonyl Sulfide 2) Crop Yield

  14. Herbaceous Crop Trials on Marginal and Abandoned Cropland (Tilman et al., Science, 2006; Schmer et al., PNAS, 2008)

  15. Field Studies with NSF REU • Native Grass Field Trials (DeBolt, University of Kentucky) • Abandoned Coal Mines and Secondary Forests (Fox, University of Kentucky)

  16. An Unplanned Experiment An Unplanned Experiment… County: Logan, ND

  17. EBI Plant Model Inter-Comparison • Comparison for field sites • Comparison for regional area estimates of marginal lands

  18. Top-down yields using Carbonyl Sulfide (COS)

  19. Experiment • Airborne Measurements(Blake, UC Irvine; Vay, NASA/Langley; Montzka NOAA/ESRL) • Regional Atmospheric Model (Carmichael, U Iowa) • Ecosystem Model (Collatz, NASA/GSFC) (Campbell et al., Science, 2008)

  20. Tropospheric Drawdown Total Model Components Total Model Components Drawdown COS (ppt) Drawdown CO2 (ppm) (Campbell et al., Science, 2008)

  21. County-Level Areas • Tracking Current Expansion 3) Land Area

  22. Data Sets • County • County-level total crop area based on USDA data • 1850-1997, annual • HYDE • 5 minute, based on state-level data • 1700-2000, decadal • SAGE • 5 minute, based on state-level data • 1700-1992, decadal

  23. County-Level Abandoned Agriculture

  24. Where are biofuels going?

  25. Mostly a change in corn rotations but not everywhere…

  26. 4) Energy Pathway

  27. Land use efficiencies of bioenergy alternatives 30-40% 92% 80-90% 75% 0.1-1.0% 97% 45-47% 20%

  28. a) Ethanol b) Bioelectricity (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, Science, In Review)

  29. Corn Switchgrass (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, Science, In Review)

  30. Corn Switchgrass (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, Science, In Review)

  31. High Efficiency Combustion • Bioelectricity: IGCC power plant • Ethanol: Hybrid vehicles

  32. High Efficiency Combustion • Bioelectricity: IGCC power plant • Ethanol: Hybrid vehicles Ethanol Bio-electric

  33. High Efficiency Combustion • Bioelectricity: IGCC power plant • Ethanol: Hybrid vehicles Ethanol Bioelectricity averages 75% greater distance Bio-electric

  34. UC Merced Service Learning and the EPA P3 Sustainability Competition

  35. Thank you! • Elliott Campbell • ecampbell3@ucmerced.edu • tel: 209.631.9312 • skype: elliott.campbell

  36. Other Renewables (Pro et al., Journal of Cleaner Production, 2005) Area to meet U.S. Transportation Demand

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