1 / 31

Market Potential and Sales Forecasting

Market Potential and Sales Forecasting. Chapter 06. Forecasts versus Potential. Five major uses of potential estimates. To make entry/exit decisions To make resource level decisions To make location and other resource allocation decisions To set objectives and evaluate performance

teenie
Télécharger la présentation

Market Potential and Sales Forecasting

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Market Potential and Sales Forecasting Chapter 06

  2. Forecasts versus Potential

  3. Five major uses of potential estimates • To make entry/exit decisions • To make resource level decisions • To make location and other resource allocation decisions • To set objectives and evaluate performance • As an input to forecasts

  4. Deriving Potential Estimates

  5. Useful Sources for Potential Estimates • Government Sources • Trade Associations • Private Companies • Financial and Industry Analysts • Popular Press • The Internet

  6. New or Growing Product Potential • Relative Advantage • Compatibility • Risk

  7. Methods of Estimating Market and Sales Potential • Determine who are the potential buyers or users of the product • Determine how many are in each potential group of buyers defined by step 1 • Estimate the purchasing or usage rate

  8. Market Potential: Electric Coil

  9. Uses of Sales Forecasts • To answer “what if” questions • To help set budgets • To provide a basis for a monitoring system • To aid in production planning • By financial analysts to value a company

  10. Scenario-Based Forecasts

  11. Judgment-based Forecasting Methods • Naïve extrapolation • Sales force composite • Jury of expert opinion • Delphi method • Electronic Markets

  12. Summary of Forecasting Methods

  13. Graphical Eyeball Forecasting

  14. Customer-Based Methods • Market Testing • Situations in which potential customers are asked to respond to a product or product concept • Market Surveys • A form of primary market research in which potential customers are asked to give some indication of their likelihood of purchasing a product

  15. Time-Series Forecasting Methods • Moving Averages • Exponential Smoothing • Regression Analysis

  16. Potential Customers by Industry and Size

  17. Sample Data

  18. Times-Series Extrapolation

  19. Time-Series Regression Example

  20. Trial over Time for a New Product

  21. Model-Based Methods • Regression analysis • Leading indicators • Econometric models

  22. Forecasting Method Usage

  23. Use of New-Product Forecasting Techniques by All Responding Firms

  24. Developing Regression Models • Plot sales over time • Consider the variables that are relevant to predicting sales • Customer status and traits • “Our” marketing programs • Competitive behavior • General environment • Collect data • Analyze the data

  25. Cereal Sales Data (monthly)

  26. Cereal Data

  27. Cereal Data Correlation Matrix*

  28. Regression Results: Cereal Data*

  29. Format for Reporting a Regression Model Based Forecast

  30. The Impact of Uncertain Predictors on Forecasting

More Related