PARTIES, CAMPAIGNS, ELECTIONS, VOTING AND MONEY PT. 2

1. PARTIES, CAMPAIGNS, ELECTIONS, VOTING AND MONEY PT. 2

2. Party Components (Welch, p. 140) • Party in the electorate • The people who identify with a particular party • Party identification – may be psychological attachment or actual voter registration • Party organization • People who hold positions within the party (precinct chair, national convention delegate, etc.) • Party in government • Elected/appointed officials who belong to the party (e.g., Democrats in Congress, Republican executive branch officials in SC state government)

3. Current Party Coalitions • Democrats • Northeast, West Coast, industrial Midwest • African-Americans • Hispanics, other than Cuban-Americans in Florida • LGBT • Professional women • Government employees • Working class and middle income, esp. union members • Poor, non-high school/college graduates • More secular individuals (less religious/less frequent attendees at services)

4. Current Party Coalitions • Republicans • White Southerners, particularly males • Rocky Mountains and agricultural Midwest • Cuban-Americans in Florida • Those who are more religious (regular/more frequent churchgoers), especially evangelical Christians • Stay-at-home mothers • Economic conservatives (anti-tax) • Social conservatives (anti-gay rights, abortion) • Wealthy private-sector workers

5. Changes in voters’ party identification • Realignment vs. dealignment • Realignment is the emergence of a new majority party • Last two national realignments: 1896 (Republican) and 1932 (Democratic) • Dealignment occurs as more people consider themselves to be Independent rather than D or R; this has been the trend since about 1960, so now there is no majority party (neither one has more than half the electorate) • “Independent” is not a party, but the absence of a party; someone who considers the D’s to be too conservative and someone who considers the R’s to be too liberal may both be independent, but they’re not members of the same party

6. What Determines Your Likelihood of Voting? • Socioeconomic Status • Education • Income • Age • Race: Whites/Asians more likely than blacks/Hispanics • Political efficacy • Do you feel that your political participation matters?Do you feel that the political system responds to the needs of people like yourself?

7. Voting patterns • Straight-ticket vs. split-ticket voting • Straight-ticket: voting for all members of the same party (D President, D Senator, D Representative, etc.) • Split-ticket: voting for members of different parties for different offices (D President, R Senator, etc.)

8. Split-Ticket Voting and Divided Government • Straight-ticket voting tends to produce one-party control of government; historically, usually when there was a Democratic President, there was a Democratic Congress; when there was a Republican President, there was a Republican Congress • Split-ticket voting is much more common than historically; this can produce divided government, where the branches are controlled by different parties • Recent examples: • 1981-1987: R Pres. (Reagan), D House, R Senate • 1987-1993: R Pres. (Reagan/Bush), D Congress • 1995-2001: D Pres. (Clinton), R Congress • 2007-2009: R Pres. (Bush), D Congress • 2011-2013: D Pres. (Obama), R House, D Senate

9. Split-Ticket Voting and Divided Government PRESIDENT Senate • R 1953-1961 • D 1961-1969 • R 1969-1977 • D 1977-1981 • R 1981-1993 • D 1993-2001 • R 2001-2009 • D 2009-2013 • D 1955-1981 • R 1981-1987 • D 1987-1995 • R 1995-2001 • D 2001-2003 • R 2003-2007 HOUSE D 1955-1995 R 1995-2007 D 2007-2011 R 2011-2013

10. Is Divided Government Good or Bad? • Good for accountability – the branches of government are supposed to check each other and keep each other honest • Good if you don’t like what one party is trying to do (the health care bill would not have passed if the Democrats hadn’t controlled the Presidency and both Houses of Congress in 2010) • Bad if you’re trying to pass something and the two parties can block each other. Democratic Senate and Republican House have found it very difficult to agree on anything, and this Congress passed less legislation than any since 1947. (Congress’s current approval rating is 21%.)

11. Party coalitions and turnout • The Democratic coalition is larger than the Republican coalition, but Republicans are more likely to vote, and to vote consistently. This makes the two parties roughly equally balanced. • Gender gap: Since 1984, it has consistently been observed that women are more likely to vote Democratic and men are more likely to vote Republican. • Obama has a 9-point advantage among women Romney has a 10-point advantage among men (Gallup Poll completed Oct. 28, 2012)

12. Why parties are weaker than historically • Split-ticket voting makes it less likely that one party will control both legislative and executive branches • Party organizations used to recruit candidates, and now people tend to recruit themselves • Direct primaries give voters, not parties, control over who wins party nominations • Candidates have independent sources of funding and are no longer as dependent on parties to provide money, staff and materials for their campaigns

13. Why parties are weaker than historically • Voters have more sources of information (nonpartisan media, Internet) and don’t rely on parties/partisan media for their political information and voting cues • Parties no longer control patronage (government jobs) and social services – nonpartisan government programs provide things like welfare; this was particularly important for urban party machines in helping new immigrants assimilate and find work • Progressive reforms: Secret ballot, professional nonpartisan civil service • Weaker parties and lower voter turnout go hand-in-hand

14. Turnout of Voting Age Population in Presidential Elections Since 1960 (Eligibility Up, Turnout Down) • 1960: 63% • 1964: 62% • 1968: 61% • 1972: 55% • 1976: 54% • 1980: 52% • 1984: 53% • 1988: 50.1% • 1992: 55% • 1996: 49.3% • 2000: 51% • 2004: 56% • 2008: 57% • 2012: Projected to be higher than 2000, lower than 2004/2008

15. Voter mobilization • Registration drives (parties, campaigns, other groups) – get your potential supporters registered so they can vote • Identify supporters (contact voters to determine their preference, know who’s voting for you) • Persuade the undecided • Mobilization: After you’ve identified your supporters, make sure they vote – help with absentee ballots, rides to the polls, make sure their votes are cast and counted • GOTV = Get Out the Vote

16. Campaign Finance (Money in Politics) • For most of our history, money in federal elections was unregulated. Candidates didn’t have to disclose who their contributors were or how much they got • 1971 Presidential Election Campaign Act: Public financing through a check-off on the federal tax return (originally $1, now $3) established the Presidential Campaign Fund • A presidential candidate who raised $10,000 in each of 25 states during the primaries was eligible for matching funds from this fund (raise $1, get $1, double your money)

17. Campaign Finance • Accepting money from this fund required complying with spending limits in each state • In 2000, George W. Bush was the first successful nominee not to accept matching funds – he could raise more than twice as much on his own, and didn’t have to comply with spending limits • Several candidates turned down the matching funds in 2004 • Only John Edwards among major-party candidates accepted it in 2008 • No one took it this year • Obama and Romney have each raised approximately $1 Billion in campaign funds for the general election

18. Campaign Finance • In response to the Watergate scandal, Congress enacted the Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) of 1974 • Enacted limits on how much campaigns for federal office (President, US Congress) could raise from specific individuals and corporations. Currently $2300 for individuals. • The Federal Election Commission (FEC) was established in 1975 to monitor and enforce federal election laws. • Most money raised by campaigns goes to advertising, particularly in early primary states during the nomination process and swing states during the general election.

19. Campaign Finance • Independent expenditures: A group not affiliated with a party, campaign or candidate may use its own resources to express support or oppose a candidate or cause. • Political Action Committee (PAC): An interest group which supports and contributes to a campaign/issue on behalf of a specific group of people (Bank of America, United Auto Workers, etc.), subject to contribution limits in federal elections.

20. Campaign Finance • Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 imposed limits on the amount of money an interest group could make as an independent expenditure. • Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010): The Supreme Court ruled that this is an unconstitutional infringement on freedom of speech – an individual or corporation has the right to spend unlimited amounts of its own money to convey a message. • This is the first time the Court has ruled that corporations have the rights of individuals.

21. Campaign Finance • “SuperPACs” have emerged in 2012 specifically to make independent expenditures on behalf of their causes/candidates. • Examples: “Restore Our Future” supports Romney, “Priorities USA Action” supports Obama. • They do have to report to the FEC who their donors are but can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money. • SuperPACs have spent just over $0.5 Billion to influence the presidential election.