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Perspectives on cost efficiency and technological change Eva Alfredsson, Fil Dr , Swedish agency for Growth Policy Ana

Perspectives on cost efficiency and technological change Eva Alfredsson, Fil Dr , Swedish agency for Growth Policy Analysis. Inför Köpenhamn: Knäckfrågor för Klimatet, SNF 12 sept. 2009. Tunnel.

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Perspectives on cost efficiency and technological change Eva Alfredsson, Fil Dr , Swedish agency for Growth Policy Ana

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  1. Perspectives on cost efficiency and technological change Eva Alfredsson, Fil Dr, Swedish agency forGrowth Policy Analysis Inför Köpenhamn: Knäckfrågor för Klimatet, SNF 12 sept. 2009

  2. Tunnel Hypothetical relationship – Flexible mechanisms are based on an assumption that rich countries are more efficient in terms of CO2/GDP Hypothetical relationship between GDP and carbon dioxide emissions

  3. – higher incomes leads to higher emissions – so far! The relationship between GDPppp and CO2 emissions is linear 2005 US, Canada, Australia, UK China, India Not: Kolekvivalenter kan konverteras till ton koldioxid genom att multiplicera med 44/12Carbon dioxide emissions – data from Energy Information Agency (EIA)GDP – data from IMF http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2006/02/data/download.aspx.

  4. OECD och Eurostat “...GDP comparisons across countries should be made with PPPs… “

  5. CO2-efficiency - Only purchase power parity (ppp) adjusted measures give a correct picture High-income country Low-income country 1 kg CO2 2 euro  0,5 kg/Euro 1 kg CO2 0,5 euro  2 kg/Euro

  6. CO2-efficiency - Only purchase power parity adjusted measures give a correct picture

  7. Technology is global • We drive the same cars • We fly the same airplanes • We produce steel in the same type of factories • We produce electricity using the same technology and fuels – primarily fossil

  8. The choice of policy– depends on the characteristics of the problem Hypothetical relationship Taxes/flexible mechanisms Investments and R&D Command and Control (regulations) + + + + + + + + + + + + + ++ + + + + + + + 1-4, importance in descending order

  9. + Additional factors • The size of the challenge – replacing fossil energy sources with renewables • The limited time – 2050

  10. The size of the challenge 19 000 TWh 2006 36 000 TWh 2050 (1.5% p.a.)  30 000 TWh CO2-free energy 1 nuclear power plant = approx 5 TWh  6000 TWh No single technology can achieve this  All reasonable options must be implemented in parallel Source: Staffan Jacobsson, Energi och Miljö, Chalmers Tekniska Högskola

  11. Wind energy Source: Staffan Jacobsson, Energi och Miljö, Chalmers Tekniska Högskola

  12. Wind energy Source: Staffan Jacobsson, Energi och Miljö, Chalmers Tekniska Högskola

  13. Transport sector EU regulation:120 g per kilometer 2012 The increase is reduced from + 40 % to + 30%!

  14. How can the transport sector in EU reduce emissions by 20% by 2020 • Cars: 70 gram per kilometer 2012 • Trucks: fuel efficiency 90 % compared to the current level • 50 % of all transports (people and commodities) move to environmentally better alternatives – walking, cycling, public transport, trains etc Teckning: Lars Andersson

  15. Technology neutrality and focus on cost efficiency Technology neutrality and focus on short term cost efficiency leads to: • Sequential implementation NOT parallel – Which we Need! • Implementation of existing mature technology NOT innovation and new technology – which we need! Bergek, Jacobsson, 2009

  16. Conclusions • We are all in this together! We all depend up on inventing and implementing a sustainable development course. • We need a short to medium term (2050) professional implementation strategy • Clear goals • Resources! • Frequent sharp evaluations (rebound effect etc) • In parallel we need research on how to achieve a sustainable development in the long time perspective Kyoto protocol

  17. Feed-in tariffs sounds like a great idea ! /Eva

  18. Dr Eva AlfredssonSwedish institute for growth policy analysis www.tillvaxtanalys.se

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