EPRI Y2K Program

1. EPRI Y2K Program The Electric Power Industry and Y2K Embedded Systems Jim Fortune Operations Manager - Y2K Program EPRI hfortune@epri.com 650-855-2500

2. EPRI This is a Y2K Readiness Disclosure.

3. Presentation Outline • EPRI’s Y2K Program • Embedded System Issues • Potential Utility Impact • How Are We Doing? • Contingency Planning Issues • Mitigation Strategies • Industry Timeline & Sample Scenarios • Summary

4. EPRI Y2K Program Objectives • Facilitate information exchange & collaboration via: • industry-wide web site and knowledge base • workshops, seminars, and conferences • Provide technical leadership to the electric industry • Communicate & develop an awareness and understanding of Y2K embedded systems issues • Coordinate activities with other intra and inter industry organizations • Coordinate field testing and vendor participation • Assist in developing contingency planning • Facilitate Y2K readiness of essential support services such as natural gas and telecommunications

5. EPRI Y2K Program Status: Today • 114 Members • North American Utilities 90 (over 80% of sales) • International Utilities 14 • Other Industries 10 • EPRI Knowledge Base w/ over 20,000 data sources • 5 Quarterly Workshops held - over 2500 attendees • 10 Specialty Workshops held - over 700 attendees • 5 Regional Workshops for Distribution Co’s held

6. EPRI Y2K Program: Tomorrow • 6th Quarterly Workshop - Chicago, August 2-6 • Natural Gas Workshop - Houston, June 22-23 • Asian Workshop - Hong Kong, June 28-30 • 7th Quarterly Workshop - October • Attorney Workshop - Chicago, June 22 • Caribbean Workshop - Puerto Rico, September • TransAlta Roll-over Test, July 7, 8 & 9 • Early Warning System • And More

7. Embedded Systems Issues Date-related problems with microprocessor-based devices Impacted by several high risk dates, not just 12/31/1999 roll-over (eg, 8/22/99, 9/9/99, 2/29/00) Problems can exist at the chip or firmware level There are over 25 billion chips in service worldwide

8. Embedded Systems Issues • Vendor “compliance” statements are not always reliable • Finding and correcting potential problems is difficult, time consuming, and very expensive • New devices are not automatically compliant • Non-compliant devices can impact system performance until they are replaced

9. Potential Utility Impact • Most information is generated, transmitted and/or analyzed via microprocessor-based equipment • A moderate-sized utility may have over 30,000 devices in its generation and T&D systems

10. Identified Embedded Systems Devices within the Electric System

11. Potential Utility Impact (cont.) • Prudency, regulatory, and legal issues surround and further complicate the overall effort • All elements of the utility enterprise can be impacted by each other (including customers and suppliers) • There is not 100% assurance that all problems will be found and fixed • Contingency planning at all levels is a MUST!

12. Reducing Y2K Risks Testing & Remediation High Impact Contingency Planning Low High Probability of Occurrence

13. Server hardware and software PC hardware and software PC operating systems Computer BIOS operating systems DCS operator interface date display Data loggers incorrect date display Digital electric meters Digital fault recorders Digital relays Digital controllers - substations Network management software PBXs and router support software Continuous emissions monitor data recording software or analyzer software Annunciator (alarm) systems sequence of events recorder Precipitator controls Miscellaneous support systems – analyzers, recorders, etc. Main frame computers Software applications Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems Security access systems Fax machines Y2k is Real - Types of Anomalies Found Source: NERC

14. How Are We Doing ? • Testing results continue to indicate minimal impact of Y2k on ability to operate • Based on 75% of testing and remediation completed as of April 30, 1999 • Contingency planning initiated • Initial industry drill completed April 9, 1999

15. How Are We Doing? With 82% of testing and remediation done, results indicate minimal impact of Y2k on ability to operate electric systems of North America < 3% failure rates in unremediated systems Primary functions not affected Source: NERC

16. How Are We Doing?Industry Average Readiness Progress Status Source: NERC

17. How Are We Doing ? • On average, industry is close to meeting readiness targets: • Remediation and Testing – 5/31/1999 • Y2k Ready – 6/30/1999 • Few items (typically 1-5) scheduled later • Some programs reporting non-essential items • Could operate with facilities ready by 6/30/1999

18. How Are We Doing ? - Generation • Over 60 remediated fossil generation plants have been rolled-over in North America. • Many companies plan to leave their base-load fossil generation in post 2000 time frames. • U. S. nuclear units cannot be rolled-over due to NRC rules. • One Canadian nuclear unit will roll-over. • At least four hydro-systems including SCADAs have been rolled-over in North America.

19. How Are We Doing?Resources Reporting They Will be Ready for Y2k The sum of the non-nuclear and nuclear generation reporting to NERC is 798,309 MW. Based on historical data, demand estimates for the transition period into the Year 2000 are expected in a range between 514,034 MW (70%) and 367,167 MW (50%) of system peak demand. A conservative estimate is that the generation that will be available and Y2k Ready will exceed the highest electrical demand during the transition to the Year 2000 by at least 55%. Source: NERC

20. How Are We Doing ? - T&D • T&D systems have few embedded problems other than : • Substation controls and automation • SCADA and EMS • Grid reliability issues revolve around telecom reliability: • Utilities’ private networks can be verified • Public networks, regional and local companies cannot be verified by testing.

21. Good Results BUT Nagging Concerns • On-line generating unit/station testing • How much is appropriate ? • Verifying the Roll-Over Test Process • Hidden Real Time Clocks • Can we do a conclusive industry test ? • Catalog testing verses inventory testing • Catalog testing leaves concerns • Inventory testing not usually feasible • Telecom network inter-operability issues

22. Contingency Planning: Key Operating Risks • Voice and data communications • Partial loss communications, excess voice traffic • Unusual load patterns and minimum generation conditions • Very dependent on weather and location • Loss of generation • Transmission trips • Distribution trips • Fuel supplies • Severe storm or severe cold

23. Contingency Planning : Key Mitigation Strategies • Backup voice systems • Semi-manual operations (field personnel) • Personnel at key facilities with backup communications • Operate interconnected • Excess generation on-line or standby • Standby units running & serving house loads • Reduced transfers • Fuel reserves and mix options • Oil, gas, hydro (reservoirs/pumped storage), nuclear • Staffing, training, drills

24. Industry Timeline • April 9 drill - Walk through of operations under back-up communications • May 4-5 mid-term contingency plan review • July 8-9 review of contingency plans • Goal for plans to be “as ready for use as they can be” given remaining operating uncertainties • September 8-9 drill - Full industry alert • Backup communications systems operational

25. Sample Scenarios • Loss of primary voice systems • RTU failures • Partial loss of EMS/SCADA • Key control centers, substations, power plants • Some included • Gas systems • Emergency notifications • Black start drill • Pre-prepared failure scenarios

26. Summary • Test results are revealing less problems than originally thought (only 5-6% remediation required to be “Y2K Ready”) • Major utilities are “on schedule” • Intra/inter industry and customer communication and coordination still required • Need customers to operate “normally”

27. Summary • Remaining questions: • Have we found everything? Is the testing complete and valid? • Adequate contingency plans? • Readiness of small distribution companies • Readiness of telecommunication systems • Readiness of key industrial customers and suppliers