TREMOVE: from policy simulations to support for emissions projections

1. TREMOVE: from policy simulations to support for emissions projections TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections Thessaloniki, 30/10/2006

2. Impact Assessment of Transport Policies with TREMOVE • TREMOVE model: a basic tool for the Impact Assessment of transport-related policy proposals at EU level. • Analysis of the economic and enviromental impacts of transport and environment policies, focusing on vehicle technologies / emission factors and economic instruments • 1st version for Auto Oil II (1998-2000) (9 countries, road only) • New version developed for CAFE and NEC (21 countries, all modes) • Further development on track: all Member States + Accession / Candidates Countries, better user interface, more flexibility) • The model is / will be used for: • Euro 5/6, Euro VI Emission standards • CO2+Cars Strategy Review • Truck retrofit • Infrastructure charging (Eurovignette) • Fuel and vehicle taxation • Technical options for maritime pollution

3. A complex model… Source: Transport & Mobility Leuven

4. Stakeholder consultation & transparency • 2001 Model review: • Decision to further develop Tremove 1, to cover all EU-15 MS + future MS, and all transport modes • Data sources should be preferently EU-wide. Link with SCENES for complex policy scenarios. • TREMOVE Contact group • 2001-2002, ad-hoc group of modellers and country experts. • 2004: enlargement to CAFE-WGTSPA members: need to further calibrate based on country data • 13 versions in 3 years. • v2.32b used in Euro 5/6 (march 2005) • v2.40 used for ASSESS and country consultation end 2005 • v2.43b used for CO2+Cars impact assessment • V2.44 to be used for Euro VI • Not all model versions and baseline available on the website (only end-products for consultation and contract deliverable) • Principle: complex but not a black box: all parameters and dataset are available.

5. Example of TREMOVE simulation for a Euro-standard scenario Δ Emissions Δ cost for transport (purchase + running) Absolute cost Δ transport demand Emission factors Scenario: Δ Cost vehicle Δ Emission factors Δ fuel consumption Δ vehicle stock Δ new cars sales Relative lifetime costs Δ split between vehicle categories (size, fuel)

6. TREMOVE model structure and data needs Transport demand Baseline Exogeneous: from DG TREN models or national baselines Knowledge needs Data needs Demand volumes and patterns, costs Transport demand Module Transport users reactions to changes in generalised prices of transport supply Demand elasticities of substitution vehicle stock by technology, costs Vehicle Stock Module Estimate sales of new vehicle taking into account natural scrappage, price of new vehicles and transport demand Parameters for vehicle choice and stock renewal Emission inventories Pollutant Emissions Module Calculate fuel consumption, pollutant and greenhouse gases emissions, in a « Well to Wheel » perspective Emission Factors (COPERT, JRC-WtW) Welfare Module Calculate changes in consumer and producer surplus, cost of public funding, and environmental benefits External cost values, revenue recycling options

7. Transport demand baseline is exogeneous • TREMOVE needs a consistent and detailed transport demand forecast as input • Evolution of transport volumes [pkm,tkm] • Per transport mode / freight category • Per region (metropolitan, other urban regions, rural) • Per road type • Per time period (peak or off-peak) • Evolution of transport user prices [€/km] • Currently European network model ‘SCENES’ is used to produce baseline: • Consistent between countries • Calibrated on Transport In Figures (Eurostat)

8. SCENES • The SCENES model is a European-wide multi-modal integrated passenger and freight transport model. • The model provides transport demand forecasts for both 2010 and 2020, based on a set of macro-economic and trade assumptions. • A traditional four-stage model: • Trip generation determines the frequency of origins or destinations of trips in each zone by trip purpose , as a function of land uses and household demographics, and other socio-economic factors • Trip distribution matches origins with destinations, often using a gravity model function, equivalent to an entropy-maximizing model. • Mode choice computes the proportion of trips between each origin and destination that use a particular transportation mode. • Route assignment allocates trips between an origin and destination by a particular mode to a route. • Features: • Freight demand model based on regional economic model (REM) using input-output techniques or trade-based matrices of goods movements. • The passenger demand model uses a uniform trip generation and distribution mechanism, based on the age, employment and car ownership profiles of the population in each model zone

9. Vehicle Stock modelling • Surviving Stock • the stock per vehicle category surviving from the year t-1 is calculated, based on Weibull functions where survival decreases with the age of the car. • New Sales (Stock Size) • Translation of the demand (vehicle-km in year t) into “desired stock”, based on the average mileage of the vehicle category (fleet and transport volume statistics of 1995 or later) • The difference between desired stock and surviving stock gives the sales of new vehicles in year t. • Vehicle Types and Technologies (Stock Composition) • Amount of new vehicles (small cars) divided into vehicle types (small gasoline car, small CNG car etc.) using a car sales logit model. • The model estimates the shares of the vehicle types based on the total lifetime price of the car, insurance, maintenance, fuel, and consumer preferences. • Detailed Vehicle-km • For each vehicle type, we obtain a complete description of the forecasted age structure and thus technology structure. • The annual mileage per vehicle type evolves with the vehicle’s age. Combing this with the age structure we obtain, for each type, an estimate of the number of vkm driven by vehicles of a given age.

10. Calibration issues • A double consistency is required: • Vehicle volume = Activity number / load factor = Vehicle stock x mileage • The model is sophisticated (bottom-up approach) and extremely data-hungry if we want accuracy in the results • Statistics on vehicle stock and lifetime parameters not updated (1995, TRENDS project ESTAT/TREN). • Better info at national level, but time consuming. • Consistency with fuel consumption: • Split urban/non urban, speeds • Fuel tourism and transit • Emissions: • Copert IV still not implemented (in a few weeks…) • Earlier introduction euro standards & retrofit not included • No established process for bilateral consultation • No close co-operation so far with other energy/climate/air models

11. Transport demand:baseyear 2000 calibration Examples for Germany Consistency across countries

12. Objectives 2006-2007 • Short-term: Focus on vehicle stock data • 1-year project to be launched in Dec 06 • Use the database, TREMOVE and COPERT 4 to improve and ensure consistency of transport emission calculations (EMEP/CORINAIR) • Work in cluster with transport and energy models • TREMOVE (DG ENV / TML / LAT / IPTS) • TRANS-TOOLS (DG TREN / IPTS) • PRIMES (NTUA) – Transport module • POLES (IPTS): currently some transport modules (e.g. Air) • Model maintenance and further improvement under a stable context • JRC (IPTS+IES) • EC4MACS LIFE consortium • Transform the former « Tremove Contact Group » into an expert group on transport modelling • EC / UNECE / EEA / Member States / Other models & research projects • Exchange of information and common understanding on transport demand projections, vehicle stock, emission factors, costs, etc.

13. Milestones • By March 2007 (TML) • Flexibility to introduce National or alternative baselines • More friendly user interface • Later in 2007 (JRC-IPTS) • Revised source code and user interface, better coupling with COPERT. • TREMOVE then converted into a practical tool that can be used by MS for their transport stock and emissions projections. • To be discussed at next TREMOVE contact group meetings (Dec 2006, Feb 2007) • Consistency across EU. • Enable detailed modelling of the impact of regulations and economic instruments on modal shift, vehicles and fuels sales. • Specific request: TREMOVE currently enlarged to 10 additional countries: • Remaining EU-25 (Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Slovakia), Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia and Turkey, by Jan 2007. • Need to contrast the available information on transport demand, vehicle stock, etc. with the detailed assumptions used for emissions inventories and projection

14. Thank you for your attention!