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Exiting from Fragility: Making the New Deal a Real Deal

Exiting from Fragility: Making the New Deal a Real Deal. The Dialogue continues. A plan for discussion. In order to get out of fragility, we need to use the Fragility Spectrum to assess: Where we are now Where we want to be How to get there How to measure our progress

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Exiting from Fragility: Making the New Deal a Real Deal

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  1. Exiting from Fragility: Making the New Deal a Real Deal The Dialogue continues...

  2. A plan for discussion In order to get out of fragility, we need to use the Fragility Spectrum to assess: • Where we are now • Where we want to be • How to get there • How to measure our progress • ....with ongoing and inclusive political dialogue to ensure success

  3. WHERE ARE WE NOW? The Fragility Spectrum: First, a country uses the spectrum to assess its current situation for each of the PSGs1 Fragility Spectrum for Country X: Progression out of fragility A country might decide, through inclusive political dialogue at the country-level 2, that it is at Security Stage 3, ‘Restore’ EXAMPLE ONLY The description should reflect a country’s current situation as closely as possible 3 (1) New Deal, Section ii, Sentence 1; (2) New Deal, Focus, Section ii, Sentence 2

  4. WHERE DO WE WANT TO GO? One Vision: Second, a country decides where it would like to get to and the timeframe to achieve it Fragility Spectrum for Country X: Progression out of fragility A country might decide that it would like to reach Security Stage 5, ‘Rebuild’, within the next five years EXAMPLE ONLY 5 3

  5. HOW DO WE GET THERE? One Plan: Third, countries choose from a range of policy options to take them from where they are to where they want to get to Fragility Spectrum for Country X: Progression out of fragility • e.g. Policy options to get from Security Stage 3 to Stage 5 include: • DDR and retrieve arms • Public sensitisation campaign • Recognise veteran rights • Regulate private security sector • Reform security sector • [Other] EXAMPLE ONLY 5 3

  6. HOW DO WE MEASURE PROGRESS? Countries then choose from a menu of indicators to measure progress: Use PSGs to Monitor Country-level Progress3 Fragility Spectrum for Country X: Progression out of fragility A menu of indicators means countries can choose indicators which are practical and applicable to them • e.g. Indicators for Security Stage 3 could include: • Number of deaths from organised conflict (GPI) • Heavy weapons per 100,000 people (GPI) • Homicide rates per 100,000 (UNOCD) • Share of IDPs to total population % (WDI) • [Other] EXAMPLE ONLY 5 3 (3) New Deal, Section ii, Paragraph 5

  7. The Fragility Spectrum generates comparable ratings for each country in the g7+ and is the basis for global indicators to be developed Fragility Spectrum for Country X: Progression out of fragility EXAMPLE ONLY 5 3

  8. Using the Fragility Spectrum gives us a Fragility Exit Plan: this is FOCUS, a new way of engaging with fragile states Fragility Exit Plan for Country X: This Fragility Exit Plan Supports and is based on ongoing inclusive political dialogue and enables countries and civil society to communicate to their people where they are, where they want to go, and how they are going to get there ACompact will set out how donors can support the delivery of the Fragility Exit Plan…

  9. TRUST, a new set of commitments, is operationalised through the Compact and linked to the Transitional Stages using the TRUST Matrix TRUST Matrix: A Compact “can take different forms at different points in transition out of fragility… and can guide the choice of aid modalities”4 EXAMPLE ONLY The TRUST matrix is a menu of modalities, showing the TRUST commitments at each stage of fragility (4) See compact definition in New Deal, Section 2, paragraph 4

  10. The Compact is comprised of the Fragility Exit Plan together with the TRUST commitments for the relevant Transitional Stage COMPACT: “Compacts allow partners to focus on the most critical areas whilst providing a mechanism that can build mutual trust.” - INCAF FOCUS: the ‘What’ TRUST: the ‘How’

  11. Next steps: • The g7+ to develop a shared understanding of ‘fragility’ and each of the Transitional Stages • Joint working group(s), supported by sector experts and researchers, to develop content of the Fragility Spectrum based on g7+ understanding: • Descriptions of each Transitional Stage • Policy options for each stage • Indicators menus for each stage and global indicators • International Dialogue members to agree the definition of ‘Compact’ based on this architecture and write policy guidance as agreed in the New Deal

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