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How Many Bachelor’s Degrees Does Florida Need by 2025? Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment September 26

How Many Bachelor’s Degrees Does Florida Need by 2025? Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment September 26, 2012 Tampa, Florida Supporting Information Presentation by Jan Ignash, Board of Governors. Percentage of 2010 Population (25-34) with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher. 2.

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How Many Bachelor’s Degrees Does Florida Need by 2025? Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment September 26

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  1. How Many Bachelor’s Degrees Does Florida Need by 2025? Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment September 26, 2012 Tampa, Florida Supporting Information Presentation by Jan Ignash, Board of Governors

  2. Percentage of 2010 Population (25-34)with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 2 Florida is ranked 37th overall and last among the ten most populous states in the percent of its 25-34 year old population with a Bachelor’s or higher. 41% 28% 35% 29% 37% 31% 29% 28% 26% 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4thQuartile 25.6% USA: 31% BIG 10: 31% Source: National Center for Higher Education Management (NCHEMS) analysis of American Community Survey (ACS) Educational Attainment by Degree-Level and Age-Group – see link.

  3. Percentage of Florida’s 2010 Population with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 3 By Gender and Age Group Relative to National Average • Florida needs to increase Adult Education Enrollment Efforts • Florida’s younger men trail women of the same age and older men. • Florida’s current 25-34 year old population, both men and women, trail the national averages. Source: Board staff analysis of American Community Survey (ACS) Educational Attainment by Degree-Level and Age-Group.

  4. 4 • Florida’s Production of Bachelor’s Degrees per 18-24yr Population • Is Below the National Average 63.5 Florida is ranked 34th in the ratio of bachelor’s degrees awarded per 1,000 18-24 year olds. 54.9 69.4 55.4 53.4 43.0 47.6 41.3 40.5 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4thQuartile 48.2 USA: 52.7 BIG 10: 52.1 Source: National Science Foundation State Indicators (table 8-16) – see link. Note: The most recently available data is for 2009.

  5. Florida’s per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP)is among the lowest in the country 5 $51,880 $33,390 Florida is ranked 40th in its per capita GDP for 2010. $38,930 $35,920 $44,770 $45,680 $39,660 $37,120 $44,270 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4thQuartile $34,980 USA: $41,840 BIG 10: $40,660 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Per capita real GDP by state in 2010 measured in chained (2005) dollars – see link.

  6. Florida’s per capita Net Earnings (by place of residence) is among the lowest in the country 6 Florida is ranked 45th overall and last among the ten most populous states in per capita Net Earnings by place of residence in 2011. $42,100 $29,700 $34,600 $31,900 $38,600 $38,700 $30,500 $32,400 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile $38,200 $27,500 USA: $35,600 BIG 10: $34,400 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Net Earnings by place of residence – State income and employment summary (table SA04). US Census Bureau (July 2011 population estimate for 18yr old and older). Note: Net earnings is earnings by place of work (the sum of wage and salary disbursements, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income) less contributions for government social insurance, plus an adjustment to convert earnings by place of work to a place-of-residence basis.

  7. Florida ranked 33rd in Knowledge Jobsin 2010 New Economy Index 7 Source: New Economy Index 2010 report ranked Florida as 21st in the Nation, but 33rd in Knowledge-based jobs - see link. Note: “knowledge jobs” indicators in this section measure seven aspects of knowledge-based employment – see p.14.

  8. The U.S. College Attainment Gap Compared to the Most Educated OECD Countries 8 Source: Closing the College Attainment Gap between the U.S. and Most Educated Countries, NCHEMS - see link.

  9. Education Pays:Median Earnings and Tax Payments by Education 9 Source: College Board, Education Pays (2010) Note: Based on 2008 data from full-time, year-round workers aged 25 and older. Taxes paid include federal income, Social Security, Medicare, state and local income, sales and property taxes,

  10. Increased Educational Attainment Reduces Need for Social Services 10 Sources: Unemployment data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Poverty data from US Census, 2006-10 American Community Survey (table S1501).

  11. Supply Methodology: Historical growth trends 11 Sources: U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics (IPEDS) data.

  12. Actual and Projected Public High School Graduates with Standard Diplomas in Florida 12 FLDOE projects flat growthfor standard diplomas* through 2016. Historically, 48% - 55% of standard diploma recipients enroll in Higher Ed in Florida. Source: BOG staff analysis of FLDOE diploma projections to 2015-16 (as of Feb, 2012) and FETPIP Annual Outcomes Reports. Note*: projections do not include Race to the Top goals, or graduation rate increases.

  13. 13 Percentage of Florida’s18-24 Year Olds Enrolled in College Is Below the National Average 38% Florida is ranked 31st in the percent of its 18-24 year olds who are enrolled in Higher Education 39% 40% 37% 35% 41% 41% 33% 31% 32% 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4thQuartile 34% USA: 36% BIG 10: 36% Source: NCHEMS staff analysis of IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey and US Census Population estimates – see link. Note: The most recently available data is for 2009.

  14. 14 Florida’s Projected Undergraduate Enrollment in 2025 Additional Undergraduate Enrollment in Florida Florida’s 18-24 year old population is projected to increase by 147,000 from 2010 to 2025. If Florida enrolls 34% of the 18-24yr old population in 2025, then Florida is projected to add 50,000 undergraduates. If Florida enrolls 36% of the 18-24yr old population in 2025, then Florida will add more than 85,000 undergraduates. Source: EDR population estimates (Nov. 2011) for 18-24 year old age group (average between 2020 and 2030 projection) – see link. Note: EDR projects the 20-24 age group will grow faster than 18-19 age group.

  15. Domestic Migration Overview 15 • Typically, most of Florida’s population growth is from net migration. • In 2030, net migration is forecast to represent 87 percent of Florida’s population growth. Source: EDR, May2012 – see link.

  16. Florida’s Future Population Growth is Slower & Older 16 Florida’s Projected Growth by Age Historically, population growth has been the Florida’s primary engine of economic growth. However, Florida’s overall population growthis forecast to remain relatively flat – averaging between 0.8% and 1.1% between 2010 and 2030 (compared to the 3% annual rate from 1970 to 1995). EDR estimates that the majority of Florida’s growth over the next two decades will be from people 60 years old and over. SOURCE: EDR, May 2012 – see link.

  17. Nonagricultural Employment by Industry Florida, July 2012 (Seasonally Adjusted) 17 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program, released August 17, 2012. Prepared by: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center.

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