The Warning Project

1. The Warning Project

2. Our presentation Project overview � rationale, methods What the Austin respondents said Where they get their weather information? Who are the folks who say they would drive through flooded roads ? What the respondents think about watches/warnings & �false alarms�? How does previous trauma experience affect flash flood perception? Focus on AUSTIN & FLASH FLOODS Our recommendations & suggestions for future directions QUESTIONS & your recommendations for future collaborations

3. Sample demographics Mostly female (60%) Relatively well educated (81% college to graduate school)

4. The last major research findings on warnings are 30 years old What about cell phones, Internet, private & public sources of information? How are diverse urban populations interpreting warnings?

5. Our 2003-2007 project aimed to Evaluate impacts of Demographic change New & different sources of information Test conventional wisdom about False alarms/ close calls

6.  Public response components Hear/receive Understand Believe Personalize Decide to act Take appropriate action

7. Why Austin & Denver Similarities Large Growing cities Diverse populations Vulnerable to flash flooding We selected Austin and Denver as our case studies for several reasons: they both are large metropolitan areas with a diverse population and are vulnerable to flooding. Areas that they differ is the frequency of events, although both vulnerable, Austin has had more recent flooding events and Austin also has many low water crossings where Denver does not. We selected Austin and Denver as our case studies for several reasons: they both are large metropolitan areas with a diverse population and are vulnerable to flooding. Areas that they differ is the frequency of events, although both vulnerable, Austin has had more recent flooding events and Austin also has many low water crossings where Denver does not.

8. Warning project methodology Survey Development 1 year Input from officials & hazards researchers Survey format Likert scale & true/false Demographic questions Experience with flash floods & trauma Surveys in English & Spanish to selected respondents Survey is available � for follow up studies

9. Denver & Austin 2005 case studies Mail survey 6000 surveys sent to residents in or near the floodplain 1017 surveys returned In the Denver, 2005 case study we mailed about 3000 surveys to residents in or near the flood-plain. With 419 questionnaires returned. 535 surveys Follow-up senior centers community centers parents from an elementary school college geography class 419 returned from random mailings 19 from community centers 35 from Fairview Elementary school parents 62 from CU Denver students In the Denver, 2005 case study we mailed about 3000 surveys to residents in or near the flood-plain. With 419 questionnaires returned. 535 surveys Follow-up senior centers community centers parents from an elementary school college geography class 419 returned from random mailings 19 from community centers 35 from Fairview Elementary school parents 62 from CU Denver students

10. What Austin respondents said Where do people get their weather information? Best way for officials to warn you about a flash flood?

11. Most important source of weather information

12. Thinking about your most recent flash flood experience, tell us where you found out about the flash flood in Austin

13. A flash flood warning indicates a more serious threat than a flash flood watch

14. I take flash flood warnings seriously

15. The best way for officials to warn you about a flash flood?

16. Summary: information sources Traditional sources continue to be strongly utilized Internet plays an important role Cell phones are not used by many respondents for weather information In regards to information sources, traditional sources of Television, local radio and environmental cues continue to be strongly utilized. Yet use of Internet is growing, 35% of Denver respondents and 42% of Austin respondents reported using the internet. But cell phones are use by a small percentage of both Denver and Austin residents. And Austin residents were more likely to use NOAA weather radios with almost 25% reporting their use. Environmental cues continue to be important.In regards to information sources, traditional sources of Television, local radio and environmental cues continue to be strongly utilized. Yet use of Internet is growing, 35% of Denver respondents and 42% of Austin respondents reported using the internet. But cell phones are use by a small percentage of both Denver and Austin residents. And Austin residents were more likely to use NOAA weather radios with almost 25% reporting their use. Environmental cues continue to be important.

17. Flash flood scenario Driving in my mid-size car The water starts to rise rapidly Intersection with at least 18 inches of water Hear a National Weather Service flash flood warning on the radio The surveys included several scenarios, one is a driving scenario. We�ve selected specific intersections in both cities that are prone to flooding and used this as a location for the scenario. In both scenarios they are: Driving in mid-size car The water starts to rise rapidly Approaching an Intersection with at least 18 inches of water And they Hear a flash flood warning on the radio Then we asked questions regarding their perceptions and behaviors. It is important to note that in regards to all surveys what people say they will do may not be the same as what they would actually do in the situation.The surveys included several scenarios, one is a driving scenario. We�ve selected specific intersections in both cities that are prone to flooding and used this as a location for the scenario. In both scenarios they are: Driving in mid-size car The water starts to rise rapidly Approaching an Intersection with at least 18 inches of water And they Hear a flash flood warning on the radio Then we asked questions regarding their perceptions and behaviors. It is important to note that in regards to all surveys what people say they will do may not be the same as what they would actually do in the situation.

18. Driving through flooded roads Overview How many people? What are the risk factors? Which risk factor is most important?

19. �If traffic started moving forward, I would attempt to cross the water�

20. �Regardless of the vehicle I'm driving, if the water were covering most of the tires on the truck in front of me, I would attempt to drive through the water�

21. �If I were driving an SUV, truck, or 4-wheel drive instead of a car, I would attempt to drive through the water�

23. What percentage of Austin respondents say they would drive through flooded roads stratified by�

24. � age group

25. �whether they agree or disagree with the statement �I take flash flood warnings seriously�

26. � whether they agree or disagree with the statement �Most flash-flood deaths are associated with vehicles�

27. Modeling behavior

28. Summary: Vehicles in floods Fewer people in Austin drive through flooded roads than in Denver Critical risk factors are age & attitudes about flood warnings

29. False alarm questions What are public perceptions of false alarms? Is �cry wolf� concept accurate for flash flood warnings? How do demographic characteristics influence perceptions about false alarms?

30. Realizing it�s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls Moving on to the second question �Realizing it�s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls� The difference between Austin and Denver residents was not statistically significant. Majority of respondents, 78%, agreed they would rather have more warnings with the possibility of more false alarms.Moving on to the second question �Realizing it�s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls� The difference between Austin and Denver residents was not statistically significant. Majority of respondents, 78%, agreed they would rather have more warnings with the possibility of more false alarms.

31. Austin by GenderRealizing it�s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls We see the same trend in Austin. Majority of both men and women would prefer more warnings, but women are more likely to endorse this question.We see the same trend in Austin. Majority of both men and women would prefer more warnings, but women are more likely to endorse this question.

32. Officials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash flooding The difference between Austin and Denver residents was not statistically significant. We can see that the large majority of respondents, 85%, disagreed that officials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash flooding.The difference between Austin and Denver residents was not statistically significant. We can see that the large majority of respondents, 85%, disagreed that officials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash flooding.

33. Summary: False alarms People would rather have more warnings with the possibility of a false alarm or close call False alarms may not reduce confidence in the warning process Officials are not viewed as too sensitive Need to re-evaluate conventional wisdom Demographic characteristics do matter Gender: females may be more tolerant of false alarms

34. Trauma defined� A traumatic event is defined as an event that threatened your life or someone close to you where you felt intense fear, horrified, or helpless such as being in a natural disaster, terrorist attack, major accident such as a car accident, physical attack, sexual assault, mugged.

35. Did you feel adequately warned by the most recent flash flood in Austin? Individuals with 5 or more lifetime traumas reported that they did not feel as adequately warned as individuals who did not report any trauma history.

36. After the storm in Austin on October 17, 1998, I knew about assistance that was made available after the flood event Being traumatized may influence the recovery process as well. High trauma exposed individuals reported significantly less awareness about assistance following the October 98 flood than non-trauma exposed individuals.

37. More interesting findings when we cross ethnicity with trauma exposure Highly traumatized Hispanic individuals reported more agreement than Caucasian traumatized people that they would get in a vehicle and drive away during a flash flooding scenario when they were at home

38. Perceptions of government warnings . High trauma exposed Hispanics also agreed more than did traumatized Caucasians that government officials were too sensitive to flash flooding

39. Posttraumatic stress symptoms What is PTSD. Psychological distress resulting from trauma exposure Intrusive thoughts Avoidance Hyperarousal Numbing

40. Perception impact of PTSD symptoms Individuals with clinically high levels of posttraumatic distress indicated that: they had been more exposed to a life threatening weather related trauma before than those with no distress they agreed more than no distress people that flooding would cause dams and other preventive structures to fail they agreed more than no distress individuals that officials were too sensitive to flash flooding

41. Summary: Trauma How we process warning information is relative to our life histories, our culture, and our current emotional states�.

42. Limitations Expectations were too ambitious Aimed to inform National Weather Service and emergency managers specifically how to be more effective Survey Sampling response Demographic representation Typical survey limitations Much more data & many more findings than we can talk about today

44. Las Vegas billboards � for drivers!

45. Possibilities for future directions & collaborations Focus on actual behavior � not perceptions Use the videos at the automated gates? Use the videos at the crossings Talk with people about why they did what they did & what information they had/didn�t have when they made their decisions

46. Potential partners Isabelle Ruin - University of Grenoble, France Flash flood problems in France - similar to Austin Finishing her Ph.D. on perceptions and behaviors of tourists & locals in flash floods Julie Demuth � National Center for Atmospheric Research Doing research on communicating uncertainty about weather

47. Thanks to the Watershed Protection Dept., Office of Emergency Management & National Weather Service Forecast Office Austin/San Antonio