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A visit to the Baltic Nest Institute September 21 – 25, 2009

A visit to the Baltic Nest Institute September 21 – 25, 2009. Sharon Tickell C2C CoP Participant Presentation given on 11/11/2009. CSIRO C2C Community and the BNI. Part of the purpose of the CoP is to enable us to learn from other people people working in the C2C field.

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A visit to the Baltic Nest Institute September 21 – 25, 2009

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  1. A visit to the Baltic Nest InstituteSeptember 21 – 25, 2009 Sharon Tickell C2C CoP Participant Presentation given on 11/11/2009

  2. CSIRO C2C Community and the BNI • Part of the purpose of the CoP is to enable us to learn from other people people working in the C2C field. • Fred Wulff, Senior Advisor to the BNI, was a guest at the first C2C CoP Workshop in May 2009. He issued an invitation to any interested CSIRO people to visit his institute. • Three members of the C2C Community accepted that invitation in September 2009: • Karen Fielding-Smith (CMAR Hobart; Bio-geochemical modelling of the Derwent Estuary). • Frederieke Kroon (CSE Townsville, GBR) • Sharon Tickell (CMAR Cleveland, SEQ C2C MSE) CSIRO. A visit to the Baltic Nest Institute

  3. About the BNI • First, was the Nest application… • Decision support tool for the Baltic Sea and its drainage basins. • Originally developed for eutrophication research • Runs large-scale, whole-of-system models. • Now, the BNI is a department of the Stockholm Resilience Institute (part of Stockholm University). • SRI does policy development – generates expert opinions. • Many scientists also belong to other university departments. • Funding ratio is ~60% Government/40% Project. • Politics everywhere… • 9 countries, with very different economies. • Heavy industry, intensive agriculture, pristine wilderness, fisheries, commercial shipping… • Main policy-making target is HELCOM (EU agency for Baltic Sea). CSIRO. A visit to the Baltic Nest Institute

  4. BNI Software: Nest (http://nest.su.se/nest/) • Java Client for a Web Service Application • Model runs are done on the server (some pre-canned) • Results returned to the client for visualization. • Nothing is written back to the database. • Designed for use in expert and non-expert modes. • 1st generation models are mostly empirical • Chosen for a consistent approach to all river basins rather than local precision. • Results are most useful for rankings than numbers. • Able to detect location where action is needed, but not to recommend actions. • Enough to get policy makers to trust the application as a tool. • 2nd generation (due for public release in 2010) will be more rigorous. CSIRO. A visit to the Baltic Nest Institute

  5. BNI Software: BED and DAS • Baltic Environmental Database: http://nest.su.se/bed/ • Central database for observational data related to the Baltic Sea. • Currently 73 agencies are involved in data collection (politics!). • Includes hydrology & other data – some datasets back to 1896! • Some data is stored remotely – e.g. EMAP data from Oslo. • Anyone can submit new datasets for inclusion (manual process). • Web front end allows anyone to build and execute queries. • Interface between database and R • Data Assimilation System (DAS) • Makes observational data from BED fit the grid for your model: • Interpolation, extrapolation to any grid (bilinear algorithm) • Geographical cross-sections, layers, transects • Web application does on-demand visualisation. CSIRO. A visit to the Baltic Nest Institute

  6. BNI People: Many Thanks! CSIRO. A visit to the Baltic Nest Institute

  7. Symposium: “Planet under Pressure” • Run by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. • Sessions on: • The Arctic (5 speakers) • Land, atmosphere and ocean connections (4 speakers) • Planetary Boundaries (4 speakers) • Panel Discussion: Communicating Risk and Uncertainty (7 panel members, including an EU politician, science journalist and insurance actuary) • Presentations are available at http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=495 CSIRO. A visit to the Baltic Nest Institute

  8. Symposium Keynote: Johan Rockström • “Planetary Boundaries” presentation • From the paper “A safe operating space for humanity”, published in Nature,Vol 461, 24 September 2009. • What is required to avoid the crossing of critical thresholds that separate qualitatively different climate system states? • Suggested boundary values of 350 ppm CO2 and 1 W m-2 above pre-industrial level (required to stay within Holocene limits). CSIRO. A visit to the Baltic Nest Institute

  9. It’s not all office work… CSIRO. A visit to the Baltic Nest Institute

  10. Contact Us Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176 Email: enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au Thank you CMAR Sharon Tickell Software Engineer, SEQ C2C MSE Project Phone: 07 3826-7249 Email: sharon.tickell@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au/cmar

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