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Constitutional Baseline Survey

Constitutional Baseline Survey. Conducted on Behalf of the Transitional National Assembly, Constitutional Drafting Committee. Nationwide Public Opinion Survey July 20 – 25, 2005. Methodology.

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Constitutional Baseline Survey

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  1. Constitutional Baseline Survey Conducted on Behalf of the Transitional National Assembly, Constitutional Drafting Committee Nationwide Public Opinion Survey July 20 – 25, 2005

  2. Methodology • Field research was conducted by an Iraq based polling and research firm with more than two years experience conducting over 60 polls for various government, NGO and private clients • Face-to-face interviews were conducted July 20 - 25, 2005 • Interviews wereconducted by more than 200 trained male and female Iraqi interviewers across the country. • Interviews occurred in 17 of 18 governorates, excluding al-Anbar Governorate due to security considerations • A total of 2,884 valid interviews were obtained from a total sample of 3,200 rendering a response rate of 90.12 percent. • The overall margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.75 percent. • Please contact Chris Hobbs, UNOPS Public Opinion Research Specialist for more information. Chris_Hobbs19@hotmail.com, +962 (0) 79 670 2513

  3. Demographics in Brief • SEX: Male (47.2%), Female (52.8%) • AGE: 18 – 24 (21.5%), 25 – 34 (28.8%), 35 – 44 (24.0%), 45 – 54 (14.3%), 55 and over (11.4%) • AREA: Urban (67.9%), Rural (32.1%) • ETHNICITY: Arab (79.9%), Kurd (15.3%), Turkman (2.3%), Chaldo-Assyrian (0.9%), No Answer (1.7%) • RELIGION: Sunni (30.1%), Shia (52.5%), Muslim, unspecified sect (16.2%), Christian and other (1.2%) • Detailed Demographic Data is located following the presentation of full survey results

  4. Detailed Demographics

  5. Of the 52.8 percent of women making up the survey, interviewers took note of their traditional covering, or lack there of: n=1524

  6. Educational Distribution n=2884

  7. Employment Demographics n=2884

  8. Monthly Household Income n=2884

  9. Did the respondent appear to be influenced by another person present at the time of the interview? (Interviewer Observation) n=2884

  10. Breakdown of those influenced during the interview: n=635

  11. Survey Results Nationwide Public Opinion Survey July 20 – 25, 2005

  12. Overall Political and Economic Environment

  13. Do you feel that Iraq is generally heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? n=2884

  14. Do you feel that Iraq is generally heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? – REGION

  15. Do you feel that Iraq is generally heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? – ETHNIC/RELIGIOUS GROUPS

  16. If you feel Iraq is generally heading in the RIGHT direction, why? n=1238

  17. If you feel Iraq is generally heading in the WRONG direction, why? n=1260

  18. Thinking about the future, do you feel that life in Iraq will be better, the same, or worse in: n=2884

  19. Thinking about the future, do you feel that life in Iraq will be better, the same, or worse in:SUNNI ARABS

  20. Thinking about the future, do you feel that life in Iraq will be better, the same, or worse in:SHIA ARABS

  21. Thinking about the future, do you feel that life in Iraq will be better, the same, or worse in:KURDS

  22. Which of the following do you feel are the three most important issues of concern to you, your family and neighbors? n=2884

  23. To what degree do you think that the current Iraqi government has been effective or ineffective since taking office in March 2005? n=2884

  24. To what degree do you think that the current Iraqi government has been effective or ineffective since taking office in March 2005? -- REGION

  25. On what issue do you feel that the government has been MOST effective? n=2884

  26. On what issue do you feel that the government has been LEAST effective? n=2884

  27. The United Nations in Iraq

  28. Do you generally have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the United Nations? n=2884

  29. Since the fall of the last regime, how effective or ineffective would you describe the United Nations mission in Iraq? n=2884

  30. Since the fall of the last regime, have you, a member of your family, or a business or organization that you work for received assistance from any United Nations program? n=2884

  31. In which of the following areas do you feel the United Nations is currently most effective at providing assistance in Iraq? n=2884

  32. To what degree do you feel the United Nations should play a larger or smaller role in Iraq? n=2884

  33. If you feel there is a larger role for the UN in Iraq, in which areas should they expand their role? n=1628

  34. Constitution and Elections: Institutions and Processes

  35. How much confidence do you have in the current Transitional National Assembly to draft a constitution acceptable to the Iraqi people? n=2884

  36. How much confidence do you have in the current Transitional National Assembly to draft a constitution acceptable to the Iraqi people? –ETHNIC and RELIGIOUS

  37. How much have you read, seen or heard about the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI)? n=2884

  38. How much have you read, seen or heard about the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI)? -- REGION

  39. How much confidence do you have in the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI) to administer future elections? n=2884

  40. How much confidence do you have in the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI) to administer future elections? -- REGION

  41. Transitional Administrative Law Timing Mandates • Only 17.8 percent of those surveyed could correctly identify the 15 August 2005 mandate for the completion of a public draft of the new constitution. • Conversely, 72.1 percent admitted “not knowing” the deadline and 8.6percent identified the date incorrectly. • Only 14.2 percent of respondents correctly identified the 15 October 2005 TAL mandated deadline for the constitutional referendum. • A total of 73.2 percent admitted “not knowing” the deadline and 10.8 percent identified the date incorrectly.

  42. How much have you read, seen or heard about the constitution or the drafting process in the media? n=2884

  43. How much have you read, seen or heard about the constitution or the drafting process in the media?—REGION

  44. Which of the following sources of information do you TRUST most in regards to information about the constitution? n=2884

  45. Which of the following sources of information do you TRUST most in regards to information about the constitution? n=2884

  46. To date, how would you rate the progress made by the Transitional National Assembly in drafting the new constitution? n=2884

  47. Constitution and Elections: Participation

  48. Have you ever participated in a discussion, forum or other event on the constitution hosted by a political party or organization? n=2884

  49. Have you ever participated in a discussion, forum or other event on the constitution hosted by a civic or non-governmental organization? n=2884

  50. How willing would you be to attend a live public forum on the constitution hosted by a civic or non-governmental organization? n=2884

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