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Observations on: The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan: Pattern Recognition

Observations on: The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan: Pattern Recognition. Lorcan Dempsey VP Research and Chief Strategist CNI Spring 2004 Task Force Meeting Alexandria, April 16 2004. Overview. The library community?. The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan.

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Observations on: The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan: Pattern Recognition

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  1. Observations on:The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan:Pattern Recognition Lorcan Dempsey VP Research and Chief Strategist CNI Spring 2004 Task Force MeetingAlexandria, April 16 2004

  2. Overview The library community?

  3. The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan Customary Board of Trustees 3 year review This year: Worldwide scan User perspective In format for sharing with membership

  4. Pattern recognition We have no future because our present is too volatile. We have only risk management. The spinning of the given moment’s scenarios. Pattern recognition …

  5. Worldwide Scan • 100 people interviewed • 29 countries selected • 60% of the world’s population • 85% of world’s gross domestic product

  6. Scan content Social Technical Economic Research & learning Library

  7. The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The social landscape The Social Technical Economic Research & learning Library

  8. Trends • The ‘Amazoogle’ effect • Generations • The fabric of collaboration • The value of the library Technology is what has been invented since you were bornAlan Kay

  9. Internet search & answer NASA Quest Pregunte a un expero Schools Online Project ScienceLine Scientific-American: Ask the Expert Ammdoc.com Buscamed Eclevelandclinic.com Econsults.partners.org Enviar pregunta Expertdoc.net Findcancerexperts.com Go Ask Alice Mdexpert.com Physician referral center Poser une question Pregunte a RxExpress Ask Joan of Art National Museum of Art Reference Desk Ask Made iVillage AskLISA Laboratorio de estudos urbanos Abuzz Advice Trader Answers.com Ask An Expert Sources.com AskERIC AskJeevesAskVRD.org Ask the Old Buzzard CNN’s Ask an Expert Page Consejos practicos Google Answers Internet Public Library “Ask A Question” Keen.com Pregunta a los expertos Taxcafe Wondir Ask Auntie Nolo AskBAR Experts.com Poser un question Ask-A-Geologist As Ask Volcanologist Ask Dr. Math Ask Dr. Universe Ask Shamu How Things Work MAD Scientist Network Social landscape OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003)

  10. Microcontent Last Minute Addition: Worldwide Microcontent Market 2003 - $1Billion Includes: ring tones, logos, screen savers, micro games, etc. “By 2007, Amazon.com’s revenue from microcontent sales will exceed $500million.” (0.6 probability) • Top Ten Tech Searches 2003 • Ringtones • Digital Cameras • Mobile Phones • HDTV • MP3 Players • iPod • TiVo • Plasma TV • DVD-R • Camcorders OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003) http://search.yahoo.com/top2003

  11. The Amazoogle effect • Three perceived attributes? • Comprehensive • Accessible • Immediate gratification The net generation doesn’t love a wall

  12. The fabric of collaboration: Social software The collaboration technology fabric OCLC – compiled from various sources (August 2003)

  13. Trends Net generation Self-sufficiency Seamlessness Abundance Library Increasingly called to define value against the Amazoogle horizon Opportunity and challenge Social landscape

  14. The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic landscape The economic Social Technical Economic Research & learning Library

  15. Economiclandscape • Changes in “funding of the public good” • Normal cycles or permanent changes? • Sources of library / education funds • Uses of library funds • Resource allocations • Trends, shifts

  16. Library spending U.S., Japan, U.K., Italy and France represent nearly 75% of the total estimated 2000 worldwide library spending $29 billion LibEcon (August 2003)

  17. Uses of library funds Staff 53% 33% 46% Materials stock 27% 7% Other 17% 14% ARL libraries 2001-02 eContent/subscriptions 3% Worldwide average for libraries in sample countries 2000-01 LibEcon (August 2003); ARL (2003)

  18. Trends • Questioning the value of the public good • Education • Public services • Need for evidence of value

  19. The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical landscape The technical Social Technical Economic Research & learning Library

  20. Technology landscape • A non-Library technology review Where we looked and who we consulted: • Technology periodicals / publications • Leading technology vendors • Top technology analysts

  21. Trends • Ambient connectivity and embedded computation • Unplug and play • Coping with abundance • Open source • Convenience vs privacy

  22. A new era – ambient and embedded Adapted from: Gartner Inc. 2003

  23. Ambient and embedded • In an electronically nomadicised world I have become a two-legged terminal, an ambulatory IP address, maybe even a wireless router in an ad hoc mobile network. • Those who just want a simpler life may choose to unplug, and to live off the grid in Idaho. But for this particular early 21st Century nodular subject, disconnection would be amputation. I am part of the networks and the networks are part of me. … I am visible to Google. I link therefore I am.

  24. Unplug and play • Software “pieces” • Web services • Distributed Common services • Google API • Amazon API • In 2002, 6.2% of Amazon revenues, or $246 million, came from using Web services to become an e-commerce platform. Content services Application services The User Presentation services OCLC Research (August 2003)

  25. How to organize a newabundance?Role of library approaches?

  26. Hype or Hope? “How close are we to the Semantic Web that Tim Berners-Lee describes? Yes, and my American garage door talks to my Belgian toaster, and they agree I am hungry. Great idea. I think it will take a long time to realize, and that we will go through several generation of enabling technologies before we find ones that are suitable to actually get the job done.” —Herbert Van de Sompel Salton’s Home Hub 2004 Consumer Electronic Show

  27. Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning landscape Research & learning Social Technical Economic Research & learning Library

  28. Research & learning landscape • Changing pattern of research and learning behaviours • … • Changing patterns of scholarly communication • Lifelong learning trends • The need for place • Social exchange

  29. Learning for work Learn, adapt, change • In 2001, US$23 billion • In Fortune’s 100 fastest growing companies, 2 of top 10 are e-learning companies • $400 million in Asia Pacific by 2005

  30. oclc taskforce on elearning • Diffusion of information skills and use through the learning process • Life cycle management of learning materials • Systems interaction between library and learning management systems ? Picture courtesy Dan Rehak, Carnegie Mellon University

  31. Scholarly information flow discovery, harvesting discovery, linking, embedding Aggregators harvesting Learning object creation, reuse Data analysis, transformation, mining, modeling deposit, self archiving deposit, self archiving Researchand e-science Learning & teaching Repositories Data creation, capture and gathering, lab experiments fieldwork, surveys, grids media… Courses, modules, learning management systems, learning portals… validation discovery, linking, embedding publish, discovery peer-reviewed journals Conferences, abstracting and indexing services, etc. Picture adapted from Liz Lyon

  32. Complex • Resource management • Personal, institutional, other • relationships • A service and role question

  33. The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The library landscape The Social Technical Economic Research & learning Library

  34. Interviews “Libraries should reallocate positions to newer kinds of jobs: digital scholarship, open source projects, etc.” “Librarians cannot change user behavior and so need to meet the user.”

  35. Interviews “Paper content is being moved off-site to make room for things like cafes and information commons, but what stays and what goes? We do not have good tools for these decisions.” “The idea of the balanced—but unread—collection is disappearing.”

  36. Collections grid Books Journals Newspapers Gov. docs CD, DVD Maps Scores Freely-accessible web resources Open source software Newsgroup archives • Research and learning materials • ePrints/tech reports • Learning objects • Courseware • E-portfolios • Research data Special collections Rare books Local/Historical newspapers Local history materials Archives & Manuscripts, Theses & dissertations stewardship high low low uniqueness high

  37. Some issues Does structure of costs reflect new roles? Reallocation of resources? Digital resource management . Skills Mainstreaming special collections Engagement with research and learning Grant funding

  38. Application architecture Common services I’m looking for something through my library’s portal. Content services Application services The User Presentation services OCLC Research (August 2003)

  39. Application architecture Directory: user profile Directory: service description Directory: ILL policy Authentication Common services Directory: local knowledge base Reference db OpenURL resolver Circ/ILL system Article db Request broker Query broker Content services Application services The User Presentation services OCLC Research (August 2003)

  40. Interconnected library environment • More complex library systems environment • ILS, portal, resource sharing, resolver, digital asset management, … • More complex institutional systems environment • Learning management system, university portal, local government portal, … • Growing use of shared services • Directory, identity management, trust management, …

  41. And … Social Technical Economic Research & learning Library

  42. Trends & implications global membership search Technology Research e-learning self-sufficient public good Open-source Web services rights management e-commerce collaboration seamless Library Economic OCLC Social

  43. A turning point • Engagement with research, learning and living in new ways • Create value • Skills and values

  44. Read the full report www.oclc.org/membership/escan Print copies available at same URL $15 to cover print and postage

  45. The pattern is new … The knowledge imposes a pattern and falsifies For the pattern is new in every moment

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