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R&D PROGRAM RISK ASSESSMENT. Yuri Tsenkov UNWE – DNRS. SECURITY AND DEFENCE R&D MANAGEMENT: POLICY, CONCEPTS AND MODELS. CONTENT. What is risk What causes it The assessment process Likelihood indicators Consequence indicators Risk profile. Introduction.
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R&D PROGRAM RISK ASSESSMENT Yuri Tsenkov UNWE – DNRS SECURITY AND DEFENCE R&D MANAGEMENT: POLICY, CONCEPTS AND MODELS
CONTENT • What is risk • What causes it • The assessment process • Likelihood indicators • Consequence indicators • Risk profile
Introduction • The risk assessment is vital part of the risk management system, thus it is part of the good management and a base for achieving better program and project results. • The risk assessment is aimed at identifying and evaluating the accidental events which, should they occur, may have a negative impact on the achievement of the program goals and the magnitude of their impact.
What is risk? • Risk is exposure to the consequences of uncertainty. • In a project context, it is the chance of something happening that will have an impact upon objectives. RISK LikelihoodConsequence
Causes for risk • Risks arise because of uncertainty about the future. Risk exposure may arise from: • Possibility of economic, financial or social loss • Physical damage or injury • Delay • Changes in the relationships between the parties involved in the supply, ownership, operation and maintenance of assets
The assessment process • Determine the potential risk bearing events • Determine the consequences of each risk, should the event occurs; {development of likelihood indicators} • Assesses the likelihood of those consequences occurring; {development of consequence indicators} • Calculate the risk factors • Develop agreed risk priorities and inherent risk levels. • Arrange the risk factors according to these priorities
Cost increase, schedule delay and performance degradation factors
Risk profile RF=P + C − (P*C) P and C are on a scale from 0 to 1
Conclusion What I presented is a method used by government agencies and private companies in USA, Australia, Canada, Netherlands, etc. As a method it has proved its reliability, but it’s quite dependable on the experts involved in the process.
