Future Services Improving the Nation’s Health, Ecology, and Economy

1. Future ServicesImproving the Nation’s Health, Ecology, and Economy Don Wernly NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services

2. Briefing Order • Problem and Goals • What We Do • How We Do It • Working Together • Homeland Security • What Our Partners Tell Us • Our Considerations • How Will We Do That?

3. Problem • As society becomes more complex... • We become more sensitive to natural and human induced variability.

4. Vision • Live in harmony with the environment... • Resilient to Natural Hazards

5. Extreme Event Goals • No surprise warning • No regrets response

6. What We Do • Produce Weather, Water and Climate Forecasts and Warnings • For All Americans • To Protect Life and Property • To Enhance the National Economy • Data and Products: • Government Agencies • Private Sector • The Public • Global Communities • Weather and data are becoming more important to economy and business decisions • “The annual cost of electricity could decrease by at least $1 billion if the accuracy of weather forecasts improved 1 degree Fahrenheit.” USA Today, 6/19/01

7. What We Do Seamless Service Suite Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months 8 – 14 Days 6 – 10 Days Forecast Lead Time Days Hours Minutes Protection of Life & Property State/Local Planning Hydropower Recreation Ecosystem Environment Flood Mitigation & Navigation Reservoir Control Agriculture Health Commerce

8. Central Guidance Local Offices How We Do It Observe Products & Services Process Respond & Feedback Distribute Feedback

9. How We Do It The average person only sees the tip of the iceberg TV Radio Internet Private Weather Companies NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 122 Weather Forecast Offices Issue Local Forecasts & Warnings National Centers for Environmental Prediction Model Simulations Climate & Seasonal Outlooks Aviation & Marine Forecasts Storm & Tornado Prediction Hurricane Tracks River Forecasts Hydropower, Flood warnings Irrigation, River Navigation Observations Radar Network, Satellites, Weather Balloons, Ground-level observations at airports, Aircraft, Lightning Network, Data Buoys, Stream Gauge Network, 11,000 Volunteer daily-data collectors, Thousands of Volunteer storm spotters

10. Users Public Emergency Management Private Sector Government Agencies Academia How We Do It Getting The Word Out • Methods • NOAA Weather Radio • NOAAPORT • Weather Wire • Internet • Emergency Managers Weather Information Network (EMWIN)

11. Working Together 1999 Southern Plains Tornado Outbreak • “Advance coordination among NOAA, spotter networks, ham radio operators, emergency managers, and the media was key in making the warning and response successful. Spreading the warnings in different ways and through different media was very effective.” • Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information (National Research Council, 2003)

12. Working Together StormReady Communities On February 20, 2003 there were 532 StormReady Communities in 43 states

13. Working Together Supporting Evaluation & Mitigation • Service Assessments • Post Storm Damage • Assessments • New Hazard Analysis/ • Planning

14. Recognize potentially hazardous weather and flooding situations Use and interpret forecasts Develop a partnership with the NWS well in advance of a threat Working Together NWS/FEMA Training

15. Homeland Security Weather support for September 11 response • Site specific forecasts for recovery sites • Recovery site web pages • White House National Threats Outlook for resource allocation decisions Incident Meteorologists New York, NY, September 13, 2001 – Urban Search and Rescue teams inspect the wreckage at the World Trade Center. Photo byAndrea Booher/ FEMA News Photo

16. What Our Partners Tell Us • Emergency Managers • More probabilistic forecasts • More point specific forecasts • More graphical products with text • Scheduled and event driven products • More onsite support • Aviation Community • More deterministic forecasts • 600% increase in terminal forecasts • 2 to 6 hour forecast focus • Better performance • Probability of Detection 80% • False Alarm Rates 20% • Marine Community • Better dissemination • Better port specific forecasts

17. Our Considerations • Respond to: • Increased computing and communications capabilities • Opportunities and constraints of digital forecasting • Government closest to the people is best • Be where the people are • Increased economy, health, and ecology Needs • Increase ability to: • Engage, advise, and inform across all NOAA services • Maximize partnerships at all levels • Provide equal service nationwide • Be agile: • Research into practice • Speed to market

18. How Will We Do That? • NOAA in your neighborhood • Specialized centers • Digital forecast capabilities • Information not products

19. Information Examples • Event scenario • Upper Chesapeake Bay Ecology • Baltimore Port Predictions • City Impacts

20. Major Flooding 21.40 19.50 Moderate Flooding 10 - 50 17.60 50 - 90 Major Flooding 21.40 > - 90% 15.70 Maximum Instantaneous Stage(feet) 19.50 Flood Level Moderate Flooding 10 - 50 13.80 17.60 50 - 90 > - 90% 11.90 15.70 Maximum Instantaneous Stage(feet) Flood Level 10.00 13.80 8.1 11.90 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 10.00 8.1 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 Event Scenario US Hazard Assessment Seasonal Precipitation Long Term Drought Persists Below Normal Local Heavy Rain Flooding Jun 18-22 Above Normal Precipitation Outlook Made Mar 17 200x Valid AMJ 200x NWS Hazard Assesment Made Jun 10 200x Valid Jun 13-24 200x Potomac Stage Susquehanna Stage

21. Major Flooding 21.40 19.50 Moderate Flooding 10 - 50 17.60 50 - 90 Major Flooding 21.40 > - 90% 15.70 Maximum Instantaneous Stage(feet) 19.50 Flood Level Moderate Flooding 10 - 50 13.80 17.60 50 - 90 > - 90% 11.90 15.70 Maximum Instantaneous Stage(feet) Flood Level 10.00 13.80 8.1 11.90 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 10.00 8.1 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 Event Scenario US Hazard Assessment Seasonal Precipitation Long Term Drought Persists Local Heavy Rain Flooding Jun 18-22 Total Precipitation May 2-5 19xx NWS Hazard Assesment Made Jun 10 200x Valid Jun 13-24 200x Potomac Stage Susquehanna Stage

22. Major Flooding 21.40 19.50 Moderate Flooding 10 - 50 17.60 50 - 90 Major Flooding 21.40 > - 90% 15.70 Maximum Instantaneous Stage(feet) 19.50 Flood Level Moderate Flooding 10 - 50 13.80 17.60 50 - 90 > - 90% 11.90 15.70 Maximum Instantaneous Stage(feet) Flood Level 10.00 13.80 8.1 11.90 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 10.00 8.1 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 Event Scenario US Hazard Assessment Seasonal Precipitation Total Precipitation May 2-5 19xx Storm Track Jun 18-22 70% Probability Potomac Stage Susquehanna Stage

23. Upper Chesapeake Bay Ecology Nutrient Loading Turbidity - NUTRIENTS + - TURBIDITY + Salinity Oyster Mortality - MORTALITY + - SALINITY +

24. Baltimore Port Predictions ABV MLLW {ft} Wind and Waves Waves {ft} Wind {kts} Water Level & Currents 0 1 2 3 4 10 20 30 0 .5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Visibility Miles 3 1 ½ ¼ 1/8

25. Coastal ImpactsOld Town Alexandria ABV MLLW {ft} Innundation Areas Excessive Rainfall - RAINFALL + 2 3 4 5 6 3 hourly rain rate

26. Conclusion • If you want to see the future, • Invent it! • Alan Kay (Disney)