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Schaake ESP Post Adjust (Western Water Supply Homepage)

Schaake ESP Post Adjust (Western Water Supply Homepage). Algorithm created by John Schaake at OH Schaake post adjust attempts to remove bias in ESP forecasts Bias incurred in calibration process Runs on monthly time-scale

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Schaake ESP Post Adjust (Western Water Supply Homepage)

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  1. Schaake ESP Post Adjust(Western Water Supply Homepage) • Algorithm created by John Schaake at OH • Schaake post adjust attempts to remove bias in ESP forecasts • Bias incurred in calibration process • Runs on monthly time-scale • Transforms HS and OBS to distribution and derives correlation parameter • Transforms CS to distribution and uses Schaake shuffle and HS-OBS correlation to shift CS distribution maintaining distribution characteristics with the Schaake Shuffle

  2. Schaake.py: HS vs OBS

  3. Schaake.py: CS&CS-ADJ vs OBS

  4. Upper Colorado • Looked at 4 points • HS-OBS very little significant bias • Schaake-adj showed small improvements • Schaake-adj did not adversely affect raw CS (majority of cases)

  5. Schaake.py: HS vs OBS

  6. Schaake.py: HS vs OBS

  7. Schaake.py: HS vs OBS

  8. EVS: CS vs CS-ADJ Monthly Aggregated MCRPS: 1981-2005 February 1 ESP Re-forecasts

  9. EVS: CS vs CS-ADJ Monthly Aggregated MCRPS: 1981-2005 March 1 ESP Re-forecasts

  10. EVS: CS vs CS-ADJ Monthly Aggregated MCRPS: 1981-2005 April 1 ESP Re-forecasts

  11. New Points • CREC1 – Smith River • CLDI1 – St Joe River • UCHA2 – Chena River

  12. Schaake.py: HS vs OBS

  13. Schaake.py: HS vs OBS

  14. Schaake.py: CREC1 Increased ensemble distribution spread..

  15. Schaake.py: CREC1 Increased ensemble distribution spread..

  16. EVS OUTPUT: CS vs Schaake-ADJ Monthly MCRPS: 1962-1998 January 1 ESP Re-forecasts

  17. EVS OUTPUT: CS vs Schaake-ADJ Monthly MCRPS: 1962-1998 February 1 ESP Re-forecasts

  18. Schaake.py: HS vs OBS

  19. EVS OUTPUT: CS vs Schaake-ADJ Monthly Aggregated MCRPS: 1951-1993 January 1 ESP Re-forecasts

  20. EVS OUTPUT: CS vs Schaake-ADJ Monthly Aggregated MCRPS: 1951-1993 February 1 ESP Re-forecasts

  21. EVS OUTPUT: CS vs Schaake-ADJ Monthly Aggregated MCRPS: 1951-1993 March 1 ESP Re-forecasts

  22. EVS OUTPUT: CS vs Schaake-ADJ Monthly Aggregated MCRPS: 1951-1993 April 1 ESP Re-forecasts

  23. Schaake Adj Future • John Lhotak has created a fairly robust python version • Could be adapted to run on all CS files sent by RFC (6hr,24hr,SQIN,QINE; HS issues) • Do we create Schaake-adj CS everywhere? • Can be run monthly or modified to run weekly; XEFS? • Are different products/time scales in the cards within the western water supply page? • XEFS/ John Schaake input

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