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Sean P MacDonald Labor Market Analyst 914-997-4108 usaspm@labor.state.ny.us

Sean P MacDonald Labor Market Analyst 914-997-4108 usaspm@labor.state.ny.us. NYS Department of Labor, Division of Research and Statistics. Labor Market Resources and Overview of Orange/Ulster Economic Developments. Current Population, population projections

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Sean P MacDonald Labor Market Analyst 914-997-4108 usaspm@labor.state.ny.us

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  1. Sean P MacDonald Labor Market Analyst 914-997-4108usaspm@labor.state.ny.us NYS Department of Labor, Division of Research and Statistics.

  2. Labor Market Resources and Overview of Orange/Ulster Economic Developments • Current Population, population projections • Per capita and median household income: Orange, Ulster and Hudson Valley Region. • Educational attainment • Labor market/Job Growth Trends • Commuting patterns • Resources for Career Exploration and Planning • Useful Labor Market websites

  3. Orange County Population Trends • At a rate of close to 6.4 percent, Orange County has been the fastest growing county in New York State since 2000, gaining 22,000 new residents. • At a rate of 1.9 percent, Ulster County has gained +3,362 new residents since 2000.Its growth rate ranked fifth among Hudson Valley counties. • All counties in the region have experienced population growth rates higher than the state’s of 1.1 percent since 2000.

  4. Population projections by age: 2000 – 2020 Percent change by county and New York State Source: Cornell University, New York State Statistical Information System, Projection data by county.

  5. Population Projected to grow strongly through 2020 • Both Orange and Ulster Counties are projected to experience strong population growth among residents 19 and under. • …And in a reversal of the 1990 – 2000 trend, both counties – as well as the region - are expected to make strong gains among the younger worker age groups that declined sharply through 2000: • 20 to 24 year olds and • 25 to 44 year olds • Both counties, as well as the entire region will also see tremendous expansion among older workers- those aged 45 and over.

  6. Projections conclusions • Population aged 20 –24 begins to increase – aging of 0 – 17 population of 2000. • The post Baby Boom generation (those born after 1964 slows somewhat. (25 to 44 year olds). • The Baby Boom generation, now aged 45 – 64 increases significantly. • The older population, those over 65 years, also expands significantly. • Potential work force will be both young (20 – 24) and older – aged 45+

  7. Income Demographics: • Per capita income 2001State rank • Orange County $28,081 20 • Ulster County $26,023 23 • Hudson Valley $42,385 • New York State $35,626 • The region’s per capita income outranked that of NYS in 2001.

  8. Median Household Income: Hudson Valley Counties & New York State 20031 Orange: $57,791 Dutchess: $84,465 Ulster:2 $42,551 New York State: $46,195 • Source: American Community Survey, New York State and counties • Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 (data for 2003 not available)

  9. Change in Distribution of Population by Race and Hispanic Origin, Orange County: 1990 - 2000

  10. Change in Distribution of Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: Ulster County, 1990-2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 1990 and 2000

  11. Percent change in educational attainment, 1990 – 2000: persons 25 years and older High school graduate or higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

  12. Percent change in educational attainment, 1990 – 2000: persons 25 years and older Associate degree or higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

  13. Percent change in educational attainment, 1990 – 2000: persons 25 years and older Bachelor’s degree or higher Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 In all counties, rates of educational attainment have risen since 1990.

  14. Conclusions • The population of the counties and the region is becoming more racially and ethnically diverse. • It is also becoming more educated. • The region’s workforce will also become increasingly diverse and encompass more of both younger and older workers over the next 20 years.

  15. Dutchess-Orange and Ulster County Job Growth Trends • The Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown MSA gained 3,700 new private sector jobs from Feb. 2004 through Feb. 2005, a growth rate of 1.9 percent. • Job growth was strong across many industries, especially trade, transportation & utilities (retail trade and transportation, warehousing & utilities in particular) educational & health services and leisure & hospitality. • Ulster County – now known as the Kingston MSA - gained 1,200 new private sector jobs from Feb. 2004 through Feb. 2005, a growth rate of 2.5 percent over the year. • Industries with the strongest job gains included trade, transportation & utilities (retail trade especially) information and leisure & hospitality. • Both areas outpaced the State’s private sector job growth of 1.2 percent over the same twelve-month period.

  16. Conclusions: • More than two-thirds of Orange County residents work in the County. 12.4 percent worked in Dutchess and 6.3 in Manhattan. • In Ulster County, approximately two-thirds of residents also worked within the county, with most of the rest - almost 24 percent working in neighboring Orange and Dutchess counties.

  17. Conclusions • The largest growth industries over the last few years are heavily concentrated within: • Health services • Educational services • Administrative & support services • Leisure & hospitality • Construction • Professional & technical services

  18. The largest employing industries within the county’s biggest and fastest growing industries provides a good indicator of occupations most in demand. • In most cases, these occupations range from entry-level jobs requiring little training and education to high-level professional, technical and managerial occupations requiring a two-to four-year college degree and beyond. • This also provides a useful guide to possible career ladders in the industry.

  19. Health Services Occupational Trends: Why is demand for workers expanding so rapidly? • The Health Services Industry has been one of the Hudson Valley Region’s and Orange County’s fastest growth industries and one of its largest employers. • Over the past year, the Poughkeepsie-Middletown-Newburgh area gained + 900 new jobs in health care & social assistance. The 7-county region overall gained + 2,700 new jobs in this area. • Many occupations in the field are projected to continuing adding jobs through 2012. • This points to positive job prospects for those training for professions in the field.

  20. Demand for workers in health services professions overall are projected to grow by more than 22 percent through 2010. • The largest gainers are expected to be • Registered nurses • Physical therapists • Pharmacists • Pharmacy technicians • Health technologists and technicians ( including medical & clinical lab technicians; cardiovascular technicians; sonographers; surgical technologists). • Licensed practical nurses • Medical records & health information technicians

  21. WHY will demand grow in many health related occupations? • The aging of the population, both regionally and nationally means increased demand for health services and an expansion of employment in the field overall. • Increased retirements among those in the baby-boom generation will mean increased need to replace workers.

  22. Aging: • In Orange, Ulster and the region as a whole, the fastest growing portion of the population is in that aged 45 and over. • Replacement: • A look at the occupational projections for 2002 – 2012 suggests that hiring due to ‘replacement need’ will constitute a large portion of new openings over the next several years.

  23. Among the top twenty occupations with favorable employment prospects through 2010, approximately half are in health and technology-related occupations.

  24. Links to Hudson Valley Labor Market Information • Occupational wages • http://64.106.160.140:8080/lmi/oeswage.html • Occupational projections • http://64.106.160.140:8080/lmi/projections_generator.html • Current employment by industry: all areas • http://64.106.160.140:8080/lmi/projections_generator.html • Unemployment rates & labor force • http://64.106.160.140:8080/lmi/laus.html • Population and income – historical data for region & counties • http://64.106.160.140:8080/lmi/population.html • CareerZone – Career Exploration Resource/skill/training requirements for hundreds of occupations • http://www.nycareerzone.org/

  25. Links, continued Business Directory: locate employers by occupation/location http://www.labor.state.ny.us/working_ny/finding_a_job/diremp/search.asp Downloadable Job Search Program – WDSuite http://www.workforcenewyork.org/wdsuite/ Business Expansions & Contractions Report http://www.workforcenewyork.org/hudsonvalleylmi/

  26. Get detailed information on skill and training requirements for hundreds of occupations at www.nycareerzone.org

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