U.S. Foreign Policy Towards Latin America: Current Perspectives

1. U.S. Foreign Policy Towards Latin America: Current Perspectives Professor Jacqueline Mazza Tuesday, March 15 Johns Hopkins University, SAIS Washington, DC

2. Today’s Lecture • Review key principles of U.S. foreign policy towards region • Historic timeline post WWII • Focus on: • Post Cold war era • Relations after 9-11 • Discuss foreign policy agenda in 2012: • key unresolved issues • future issues

3. Fundamental tenets of U.S.-Latin American Relations: 1776-1945 • Great disproportion in political, economic and military power between U.S. and Latin America • Power utilized principally advance U.S. security interests

4. Fundamental tenets of U.S.-Latin American Relations: 1776-1945 • U.S. understanding of its security needs defined as keeping out foreign powers from Latin America • To 1901 – Western Europe (Great Britain, Russia, Spain) permitting US territorial and economic expansion • 20th century war years: Germany (WWI and WWII) • Cold war: Soviet Union – 1945+

5. Monroe Doctrine - 1823 • The American continents are henceforth not to be considered subjects for future colonization by any European power.” • “U.S. would see “any attempt on their (European) part to extend their system toany portion of this hemisphere as dangerous to our peace and safety”

6. Disproportionate power + emphasis on security led to… • Long history of military intervention • 1848 – war with Mexico • W.Wilson 1912-21 • Panama Canal intervention - 1903 • Bay of Pigs (Cuba) • 1954 – Guatemala – (CIA supported coup) • Economic policy emphasized U.S. investment interests • U.S. discomfort with more radical revolutions (U.S. “revolution” = first anti-colonial war” that wasn’t revolutionary)

7. When were relations different? • “Good Neighbor Policy” - Franklin Delano Roosevelt 1942-1945 • No military intervention pledge (removed Platt amendment – Cuba) • Unified anti-Nazi coalition • Free trade agreements • Social and cultural exchange Ends with early Cold war/Korean intervention

8. When were relations different? • Alliance for Progress – JF Kennedy • Massive economic and social aid commitment to region • Ambitious social-political goals • Social and cultural exchange Mixed results, Cold war security concerns dominated over the alliance -U.S. silent to series of coups:

9. Most conflictive modern period – 1980s- Reagan Administration in Central America • U.S. military assistance to Nicaraguan “contra” rebels fighting Sandinista government • Massive military assistance to Salvadoran military and government against FMLN-FDR rebels • Covert support to authoritarian governments in Guatemala, Chile, Brazil, Argentina. • External threat of Soviet Union coverted to internal “threat” from left-progressive parties in Latin America

10. Most conflictive modern period – 1980s- Reagan Administration in Central America • Economic assistance principally for Cold war purposes; • Latin America sees US indifference to “lost decade of the 1980s” • Latin America embraces economic orthodoxy (“Washington consensus”) • Politically organizes to counter U.S. security policy (e.g. Contadora group, Oscar Arias peace plan for Central America)

11. Improvement of relations under George HW Bush • George HW Bush (#41) embraces “kinder, gentler” policy • U.S. support for • Central American peace processes/Arias Plan • Debt reduction (Brady Plan) • Negotiates NAFTA • 1989 Berlin Wall falls, shift in Cold War

12. Bush onward -- emergence of a post Cold War U.S. Foreign Policy • Keeping out Soviet Union no longer prevailing “obsession” • Early focus on free trade (NAFTA) and potentially a WHFTA (Western Hemisphere FTA) • Attention to debt issues and macroeconomic management

13. Post Cold War U.S. Foreign Policy: Drugs tops security agenda • From 1970s, anti-narcotics becomes part of US-Latin American security agenda • But post Cold War – anti-narcotics “substitutes” for anti-communism as top US security issue • Principal rationale for U.S. military forces in region • Militarization of U.S. drug policy begins in 1980s

14. Phases of U.S. Anti-Narcotics Foreign Policy #1 - Caribbean supply interdiction (Reagan) - expensive and ineffective - drug routes move via Central America-Mexico

15. Phases of U.S. Anti-Narcotics Foreign Policy #2 Andean Source Countries (Bush 41-Clinton-Bush 43) • Andean Initiative (Bush 41) – reducing supply/crop erradication in Colombia, EU, BO • Plan Colombia – (Clinton and Bush 43) • July 2000, $1.3 billion Colombia, mostly military aid • By 2009 nearly $7 billion, Colombia becomes #3 aid recipient worldwide • Bush 43-Uribe - reduction in violence, institution-building, - supply reduction ineffective, shift to Mexican cartels

16. Post 9-11 – impacts? • Greater impact of U.S. foreign policy overall then relations with Latin America • Initially search to infuse anti-terrorism in U.S. policy towards region • Redefinition of FARC-ELN as terrorist organizations • Reduced (temporarily) the scope of US agenda with the region

17. Phases of U.S. Anti-Narcotics Foreign Policy #3 Mexico/Merida Initiative (Bush 43-Obama) • Supply and transit interdiction • DTOs – criminal enterprises • Dispersion of drug trade • Continued ineffective LA supply interruption without U.S. demand reduction

18. Obama Administration • change in “tone” of relations • approval of Free Trade agreements – Colombia and Panama • expanded Merida Initiative (Merida II) in light of increasing drug violence in Mexico • Aid to Haitian earthquake recovery • widened range of relations/contacts

19. 2012: Future agenda? Constraints-New Dimensions • Budget/Fiscal Constraints • Global foreign policy – Afganistan, Middle East • Wide ranging LAC agenda • Crime and violence surge • Diversified trade partners for region

20. 2012: Future agenda? Interamerican Dialogue Proposal • 3 Key unfinished issues: • 1. Drugs and Crime • 2. Immigration • No progress on legal immigration reform • Increased deportations • 3. Cuba

21. 2012: Future agenda? Interamerican Dialogue Proposal • Key future issues: • 1. Energy • 2. Trade and investment • Brazil – rising role • China – leading trade partner – BR, CH, Peru

22. 2012: Future agenda? Interamerican Dialogue Proposal • Key future issues: • (3. Development)