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Trends of Selected Agriculture & Rural Development Indicators in the COMESA Region

Trends of Selected Agriculture & Rural Development Indicators in the COMESA Region. By Joseph Karugia and Stella Massawe. ReSAKSS Africa-wide conference, Exploring New Opportunities and Strategic Alternatives to Inform African Agricultural Development, Planning and Policy,

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Trends of Selected Agriculture & Rural Development Indicators in the COMESA Region

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  1. Trends of Selected Agriculture & Rural Development Indicators in the COMESA Region By Joseph Karugia and Stella Massawe ReSAKSS Africa-wide conference, Exploring New Opportunities and Strategic Alternatives to Inform African Agricultural Development, Planning and Policy, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 23- 24,November, 2009

  2. Role of ReSAKSS-ECA Node • Support COMESA and member states; plus Tanzania (EAC and SADC) in design, implementation, M&E agricultural strategies => CAADP • Strategic analysis; KM; Capacity building • Hosted by ILRI in Nairobi • SC chaired by COMESA sets agenda

  3. Importance of agriculture in the region • It is the mainstay of COMESA’s rural economy: the majority of the population resides in rural areas, and about 70 % engage in agriculture

  4. Large contribution to GDP… • Contribution of agriculture to GDP remains large – transformation? Source:African development indicators 2004 in FAO 2006a and World Bank 2008

  5. But performance has been mixed… Agriculture GDP Growth rate (%) - 2003 vs. 2007 Source: Compiled by ReSAKSS available at www.resakss.org

  6. Productivity is low.…. • In many countries maize productivity is much lower compared to other regions Source: computed from FAOSTAT data

  7. Food production growth is lower than population growth Source: * from AfDB, 2007 and ** most recent figures from World Bank, 2006

  8. Fertilizer use is very low

  9. Irrigation is limited Proportion of arable land under permanent crops that is irrigated Averages 1970-2004 FAO, 2006

  10. What is the progress in meeting MDG1 - halving poverty and hunger by 2015?

  11. Progress towards halving poverty by 2015 in Africa Source: ReSAKSS, based on WDI, 2008. In COMESA, only four countries (DRC, Egypt, Swaziland, and Uganda) are on their way to achieving the goal of poverty reduction. Many countries are far from the MDG benchmark for 2008

  12. Progress towards halving hunger by 2015 in Africa Source: ReSAKSS, based on WDI, 2008 Many more countries (DRC, Djibouti,Ethiopia, Malawi, Mauritius, Rwanda, Seychelles,and Uganda)are on their way towards halving hunger by 2015 but to achieve MDG1, countries need to halve both hunger and poverty. From the previous slide only two countries in COMESA (DRC, and Uganda) appear to be on track.

  13. Region largest recipient of food aid… • As a result of food insecurity, food aid has been a historical phenomenon in the COMESA region • Received about 59% of the total food aid deliveries to SSA, North Africa and Middle East between 1988 and 2008 Source: Computed from data from Food Aid Information System of the WFP

  14. Food aid recipients in the region Ethiopia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Uganda, Kenya, DRC received the highest proportion in 2007 and 2008 Source: Computed from data from Food Aid Information System of the WFP

  15. High food prices have compounded the problem… • Global food prices started creeping up at around the year 2000 • Dramatic increase in 2007-2008; sharp decline since July, 2008; • But international prices are poorly transmitted to domestic markets in the ESA region

  16. Food price indices Note the decline in global prices

  17. Changes in the Food Price Index Trends(%) Source: FAOSTAT and Country Statistical Offices

  18. Effects of high food prices felt by the poor and net food buyers • Poor households spend most of their income on food - high food prices imply real incomes decline • Most farmers in the region are net food buyers – do not benefit as producers

  19. Urban poor hardest hit by high food prices………. • Urban poor who depend on markets were particularly hit hard – riots in a number of countries

  20. Progress towards CAADP target in agricultural public expenditure

  21. Public spending in Africa has historically been very low compared with other regions • Africa constitutes the majority of agricultural based economies • Public spending in agriculture based countries is lowest , while their share of Agriculture GDP is highest. Source: Fan, Shenggen, ed. In World Development report, 2008.

  22. Ethiopia & Malawi 10% Madagascar, Swaziland, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia & Zimbabwe 5% Burundi, DRC, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius &Rwanda The 10% Budget Allocation target is yet to be met by majority of the countries in COMESA; But good progress is being made

  23. Not only quantity, but also quality is important… • spending must also be efficient, well-targeted and supplemented by investments in non-agricultural sectors • ReSAKSS work has contributed to definition of country investment options for growth and poverty reduction

  24. Progress in implementation of CAADP Round Table in COMESA

  25. Progress in implementation of Round Table as at October, 2009

  26. THANK YOU

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