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Nevada Price Outlook Alfalfa and Grass Hay Dealing With Drought

Nevada Price Outlook Alfalfa and Grass Hay Dealing With Drought. Michael Helmar mhelmar@cabnr.unr.edu University of Nevada, Reno University Center for Economic Development. Impacting the Price Outlook. Major factors in the outlook for 2014 Drought abates Water storage

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Nevada Price Outlook Alfalfa and Grass Hay Dealing With Drought

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  1. Nevada Price OutlookAlfalfa and Grass HayDealing With Drought Michael Helmar mhelmar@cabnr.unr.edu University of Nevada, Reno University Center for Economic Development

  2. Impacting the Price Outlook • Major factors in the outlook for 2014 • Drought abates • Water storage • Range and pasture conditions • Hay acreage • Fallon WMP plant and dairy herd expansion • Fire season • California

  3. Improved Supplies Ease Crop Prices Sources: USDA, FAPRI

  4. Weather, WMP Plant Influence Hay Outlook Nevada forage prices Sources: USDA, UCED

  5. Irrigation Keeps Yields Up Nevada hay yield, tons/acre Source: USDA

  6. Drought Reduces Irrigated Acres, Number of Cuttings Nevada hay acreage, ths Source: USDA

  7. California Losing Alfalfa Acres California hay acreage, ths Source: USDA

  8. Late Year Moisture Improves Range Nevada range condition, 0=Very Poor, 25=Poor, 50=Fair, 75=Good, 100=Excellent Sources: USDA, UCED

  9. Profitability Depends on Water in 2014 Nevada alfalfa, $/harvested acre Sources: USDA, UCED

  10. Cattle Prices Boosted by Low Inventories Cattle prices, $/cwt Sources: USDA, FAPRI-MU, UCED

  11. Strong Prices Will Support Profitability Basin & Range cow-calf, $/bred cow Sources: USDA, UCED

  12. Milk Prices Will Fall as Feed Prices Ease All-milk price, $/cwt Source: USDA, FAPRI

  13. Profitability Expected to Return in 2014 Nevada dairy, $/cwt of milk sold Sources: USDA, UCED

  14. Wrap-Up • Multi-year drought makes water shortage more acute this year • Range conditions might not be adequate • Fires could push more ranchers off land • Dairy demand will boost hay needs • California a major market for Nevada hay

  15. Contact Information This presentation can be accessed on the University Center for Economic Development website at: http://www.unr.edu/business/research-and-outreach/uced/food-and-agricultural-policy-research-institute-(fapri) For more information or questions regarding this outlook please contact Mike Helmar at:Mhelmar@cabnr.unr.edu

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