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Nick Baldock Garrad Hassan and Partners Ltd

Quantifying risk through a rigorous analytical approach to the real world challenge of offshore wind construction – downtime, constraints and sequencing. Nick Baldock Garrad Hassan and Partners Ltd. Contents. Problems Facing Offshore Wind Farm Construction Garrad Hassan Approach

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Nick Baldock Garrad Hassan and Partners Ltd

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  1. Quantifying risk through a rigorous analytical approach to the real world challenge of offshore wind construction – downtime, constraints and sequencing. Nick BaldockGarrad Hassan and Partners Ltd

  2. Contents • Problems Facing Offshore Wind Farm Construction • Garrad Hassan Approach • Validation Case Study • Conclusions • Summary

  3. Offshore Wind Farm Construction

  4. Offshore Wind Farm Construction

  5. STAGE 1 DEFINE OPERATIONS OPERATION DURATION DISTRIBUTIONS TIME DOMAIN SIMULATIONS LONG-TERM WEATHER DATA STAGE 2 DEFINE BUILD SEQUENCE MONTE CARLO ENGINE DEFINE PROJECT OPTIMAL SEQUENCE DEFINE SEQUENCE RULES TOTAL DURATION DISTRIBUTION PERTURB SEQUENCE DEFINE OTHER CONSTRAINTS Garrad Hassan Approach O2C (Optimise Offshore Construction) Model - Structure

  6. DEFINE OPERATIONS OPERATION DURATION DISTRIBUTIONS TIME DOMAIN SIMULATIONS LONG-TERM WEATHER DATA Stage 1 – Time Domain Simulations - Operation Duration Distribution - For each defined offshore operation - Monthly basis Ideal Duration 50hrs Monopile & Transition Piece Installation

  7. STAGE 1 DEFINE OPERATIONS OPERATION DURATION DISTRIBUTIONS TIME DOMAIN SIMULATIONS LONG-TERM WEATHER DATA STAGE 2 DEFINE BUILD SEQUENCE MONTE CARLO ENGINE DEFINE PROJECT OPTIMAL SEQUENCE DEFINE SEQUENCE RULES TOTAL DURATION DISTRIBUTION PERTURB SEQUENCE DEFINE OTHER CONSTRAINTS Garrad Hassan Approach O2C (Optimise Offshore Construction) Model - Structure

  8. DEFINE BUILD SEQUENCE MONTE CARLO ENGINE DEFINE PROJECT OPTIMAL SEQUENCE DEFINE SEQUENCE RULES TOTAL DURATION DISTRIBUTION PERTURB SEQUENCE DEFINE OTHER CONSTRAINTS Stage 2 – Programme Modelling & Optimisation - Project Build Duration Distribution - For each defined activity sequence • Weather Downtime • Logistical Downtime Total Project Build Duration Distribution

  9. Model Validation Case Study Egmond ann Zee Offshore Wind Farm

  10. Validation Case Study Egmond ann Zee Offshore Wind Farm - Modelled Construction Operations: • Monopile & TP Installation - Svanen (36 Units) • Turbine Erection – A2SEA ‘Sea Energy’ (36 Units) • Export Cable Installation (3 Units) • Inter-Array Cable Installation (33 Units) • Turbine Commissioning • Wind Farm Reliability Testing

  11. Egmond ann Zee Case Study Stage 1 Results - Monopile Foundation Installation Duration Distributions (Single Unit per Trip) Iterations Duration [hrs] (March) Duration [hrs] (June) Duration [hrs] (September) Duration [hrs] (January)

  12. Egmond ann Zee Case Study Stage 1 Results - Turbine Erection Duration Distributions (2 Turbine Units per Trip) Iterations Duration [hrs] (March) Duration [hrs] (June) Duration [hrs] (September) Duration [hrs] (December)

  13. Egmond ann Zee Case Study Stage 2 Egmond ann Zee project definition - Segregated into 10 construction zones - Single contractor per zone at any one time - Construction sequence: 1. Foundation Installation 2. Sub-Sea Cable Installation 3. Cable Terminations 4. Wind Turbine Erection 5. Cable Testing 6. Wind Turbine Testing 7. Wind Turbine Commissioning

  14. Egmond ann Zee Case Study Stage 2 Results - Monopile & Transition Piece Installation O2C Predicted P(50) Project Build Duration Egmond ann Zee Total Project Duration O2C Predicted P(90) Project Build Duration 4 Days P(50) P(90)

  15. Egmond ann Zee Case Study Stage 2 Results - Wind Turbine Erection O2C Predicted P(50) Project Build Duration Egmond ann Zee Total Project Duration O2C Predicted P(90) Project Build Duration 65 Days P(50) P(90)

  16. Egmond ann Zee Case Study Stage 2 Results - Wind Turbine Erection (without logistic downtime) O2C Predicted P(50) Project Build Duration Egmond ann Zee Total Project Duration O2C Predicted P(90) Project Build Duration 1 Day P(90) P(50)

  17. Egmond ann Zee Case Study Stage 2 Results - Total Project Build Duration O2C Predicted P(50) Project Build Duration Egmond ann Zee Total Project Duration O2C Predicted P(90) Project Build Duration 38 Days P(50) P(90)

  18. Egmond ann Zee Case Study Conclusions - Good level of agreement (weather downtime modelling) - Modelling of project zones results in artificial delay (Egmond) - Modelling as an EPC contract would result in a better agreement - Complete project build duration within model’s P(50) to P(90) limits

  19. Summary The value of O2C Modelling - Allows resourcing sensitivity studies - Allows cost benefit analysis - Allows developer to assess & reduce contract interface risks - Importantly allows for a novel visualisation of the project build

  20. Thank You for Your Attention Nick Baldock - Garrad Hassan Main Stand Hall 2. No. 2260 Contact details: nick.baldock@garradhassan.com Bristol (UK) joseph.phillips@garradhassan.com Bristol (UK) jerome.jacquemin@garradhassan.com Paris (France) References: Offshore Wind Farm Egmond ann Zee General Report,

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