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The Logic of Scientific Causal Inference

The Logic of Scientific Causal Inference. An Introduction to Designing Social Inquiry. Logic of Scientific Inquiry. Inter-subjective Standards Mathematics Logic Subjective Standards Religion Normative philosophy . What is the job of a social scientist?.

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The Logic of Scientific Causal Inference

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  1. The Logic of Scientific Causal Inference An Introduction to Designing Social Inquiry

  2. Logic of Scientific Inquiry • Inter-subjective Standards • Mathematics • Logic • Subjective Standards • Religion • Normative philosophy

  3. What is the job of a social scientist? • To try to use whatever tools we have at our disposal to prove ourselves wrong. • Tools: • Logic • Empirical observation • Try to disprove our theory as much as possible • Unfortunately, we cannot prove anything • Always estimate the level of uncertainty in any claim

  4. Approaches to Political Science • Interpretavism – if we describe the phenomenon, what does it mean • Behavioralism – the underlying roots of our attitudes and behaviors • Neo-institutionalism – the relationships among attitudes and behaviors depend on rules • Rational Choice • Assume preferences • Deduce outcomes

  5. The Research Question:Why does ‘y’ vary? • Why do some people vote for Democrats and others for Republicans? • Why do some ethnic conflicts get resolved and other end in holocausts? • Why do some democracies remain stable and others fall apart? • Why are some economies successful and others are not? • Why do some civil conflicts result in revolution and others do not? • What causes some people to support the civil liberties of political enemies? • What causes some people to trust one another and others not to trust? • What causes some people to participate in their government? • What causes some people to bring litigation against their government?

  6. Measurement

  7. Measurement • Inter-subjective Measures • Inches • Degrees Fahrenheit • Dollars • Continuous v. Discrete

  8. Concepts that are difficult to measure intersubjectively • Democracy • Self-Esteem • Ideology

  9. Face Validity: Political Tolerance If your worst political enemy (i.e. Nazi’s, KKK) came to your town, would you support their right to march downtown? Not support at all Not really support Somewhat support Strongly support 4 1 2 3

  10. High Variance Mean

  11. Low Variance Mean

  12. Variance: Political Tolerance 40 35 30 Lowest 25 Low Number of People 20 Medium 15 High 10 Highest 5 0 Political Tolerance

  13. Correlation is not causality • Fire trucks  fire damage • Storks  babies

  14. What causes people to be politically tolerant? 40 35 30 Lowest 25 Low 20 Medium 15 High 10 Highest 5 0 Political Tolerance

  15. Statistical Relationships 40 3 3 3 2 35 2 3 3 1 3 2 30 1 3 Education 3 1 25 1 3 3 3 1 Lowest Low Medium High Highest 3 3 20 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 3 2 3 2 4 3 2 1 15 4 3 4 2 1 2 3 4 3 4 3 2 2 3 2 4 5 10 1 1 2 3 4 3 4 5 5 4 4 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 5 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 2 1 3 2 3 4 3 5 5 4 5 1 1 2 3 3 3 5 4 5 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 Political Tolerance

  16. Statistical Relationships 6 Slope 5 4 Political Tolerance Mean 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Education

  17. Probability: Best Guess • What is the probable value of tolerance, given condition of education? • This is what the slope tells us. 6 Slope 5 4 Political Tolerance Mean 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Education

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