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Blue is the new Green Going green blue - how quickly will the world change?

Blue is the new Green Going green blue - how quickly will the world change?. Prof Ray Wills Managing Director Future Smart Strategies Blue Cities Leader Blue Australasia Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia Deputy Chair, and Chief Adviser

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Blue is the new Green Going green blue - how quickly will the world change?

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  1. Blue is the new GreenGoing greenblue - how quickly will the world change? Prof Ray Wills Managing Director Future Smart Strategies Blue Cities Leader Blue Australasia Adjunct Professor The University of Western Australia Deputy Chair, and Chief Adviser Sustainable Energy Association of Australia @ProfRayWills

  2. Adoption rate of technology • Markets tell us how quickly disruptive technologies can impact • Natural rate of turnover and retirement in technology • But, adoption of new technology rarely just ‘natural’ • Transitions to new technology will be more rapid where changes are favoured by: • consumer sentiment; • policy measures and regulation; • pricing advantage. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. (Niels Bohr)

  3. Roger’s diffusion curve

  4. Wake up and smell the roses • Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? • (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC • PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet • Landline -> mobile -> smartphone (BlackBerry) • Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) • VHS/Beta -> DVD -> BlueRay • Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) • Retail shop-> Boutique-> chain/mega -> Internet • Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> wind -> solar

  5. Technology adoption rates – US • Will solar panels be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??) NY Times

  6. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

  7. Technology adoption - manufacturers Zoepf 2011

  8. Technology adoption rates - vehicles Zoepf 2011

  9. The Big Bang Theory – the shark fin NY Times

  10. Technology adoption rates

  11. Technology energy use Laptop Tablet Computer Televisions www.epri.com

  12. Electricity consumption- USA

  13. Electricity generation - Australia www.pittsh.com.au/cedex/

  14. Renewable energy growth Data IEA

  15. Potential EV growth

  16. Global renewables 2014 +>

  17. Declining price on solar

  18. Declining price on solar

  19. Global renewables

  20. Forecasts not based on experience US Electricity demand growth RicBrazzale, May 2013, based on BREE data

  21. Global energy – fossil and renewables

  22. Global energy – impact on emissions

  23. US energy sources changing

  24. Solar on Australian homes • 1.2 million solar installs in Australia, total 3.3 GW of capacity; output estimated 4500 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to March 2014. • WA – 155,000 rooftops with solar, a total of 364MW of solar capacity • Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 7500 homes, 15 MW of capacity

  25. Solving energy poverty

  26. Solar and storage fight energy poverty • Developing nations can meet modest domestic power needs with solar. • Means storage is already economically affordable.

  27. @ProfRayWills

  28. Rapid change- mobility • Efficiency in transport • Energy storage key • New tech may be disruptive

  29. Electric mass transit • Siemens Bordeaux light rail • Hybrid battery-electric • Bombardier wireless battery-electric • Bombardier Slim Ride • Series 700 Shinkansen

  30. Commercialvehicles Smith Newton electric truck Diesel Electric hybrids • Honda prime mover • Volvo Hybrid - Veolia • London Bus- diesel hybrid, and electric • CAT Haul Pak + Earthmover • Oshkosh Military Vehicle

  31. Flying and floating fuels • 25 Feb 08 - Virgin Atlantic 1stbiofuel flight • (But 1st USAF - 30 Oct 07) • (QANTAS much later 14 Feb 11 ) • 13 Sep 11 – US Navy announces Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuelsoperating independent of fossil fuelsupply line threat or disruption • And other diesel electric drives - MAN diesel

  32. Blue cities:doing more with less,consuming less energy. • Global • Tianjin Eco-City China • Ulsan EcocityKorea • Masdar City UAE • Australia • City of Sydney • City of Melbourne • City of Townsville • City of Fremantle • Local government critical • Nimble government • Community demand

  33. Smart gridsdevices and buildings – and microgrids… • Integrated energy planning smart devices (not grids) to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators • Distributed generation changes utility paradigm

  34. Increasing pace of technology adoption • Big decrease in developmental lag • Innovation/development of new products • Supply side capabilities • Market competition • Growing consumer expectations • Higher level of communication between consumers - blogspace • CSR, reputation and CFOs • Regulation • Energy just a commodity

  35. So why Blue? • Overcomes green fatigue (but not its purpose) • Is about doing more with less (CFOs happy) • But it is a fundamental shift – green has been largely seen as doing ‘less bad’ and resisted as perception of doing less, • Linear approach to an end point with diminishing returns of ‘less bad’. • Blue is cradle to cradlewhole-of-life ecology and circular economy www.blueaus.com

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