Presentation Transcript

1. Where it started:
2. PPS22: The Government’s Objectives The Government’s energy policy, including its policy on renewable energy, is set out in the Energy White Paper2. This aims to put the UK on a path to cut its carbon dioxide emissions by some 60% by 2050, with real progress by 2020, and to maintain reliable and competitive energy supplies. The development of renewable energy, alongside improvements in energy efficiency and the development of combined heat and power, will make a vital contribution to these aims. The Government has already set a target to generate 10% of UK electricity from renewable energy sources by 2010. The White Paper set out the Government’s aspiration to double that figure to 20% by 2020, and suggests that still more renewable energy will be needed beyond that date.
3. PPS22: KEY PRINCIPLES Regional planning bodies and local planning authorities should adhere to the following key principles in their approach to planning for renewable energy: (i) Renewable energy developments should be capable of being accommodated throughout England in locations where the technology is viable and environmental, economic, and social impacts can be addressed satisfactorily.
4. RSS: Renewable Energy Generation 3.177 Achieving the commitments set nationally by the Energy White Paper will require at least 40% of electricity to be generated from renewable sources by 2060. In the shorter term the Government is committed to the achievement of 10% renewable electricity by 2010 and is aiming for 20% by 2020. Policy 39 RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION Strategies, plans and programmes, and planning proposals should: a. facilitate the generation of at least 10% of the Region’s consumption of electricity from renewable sources within the Region by 2010 (454 MW minimum installed capacity); b. aspire to further increase renewable electricity generation to achieve 20% of regional consumption by 2020; 3.194 In particular, Kielder Forest is highlighted as having significant potential for wind energy development on a regionally strategic scale. Realising the potential in this area will be essential to meeting the regional aspiration of 20% renewables by 2020, although this will be dependent on overcoming MoD constraints and any environmental constraints.
5. RSS: All Targets are not Equal “PPS22 states that RSSs should contain an indication of the output that might be expected to be achieved from offshore renewables, based on where the electricity comes ashore. The East Midlands, East of England, North East, South East, South West and Yorkshire and Humber have all identified a contribution from offshore renewables, although the way in which this is presented differs considerably. The East Midlands and East of England have identified a separate contribution from offshore renewables that is not included in their overall regional targets. The South East, South West, Yorkshire and Humber and the North West have included offshore renewables in their overall renewable energy targets, although this can be disaggregated from onshore projects. Owing to their geographical position, neither the West Midlands nor London have identified a contribution from offshore renewables. The North East has not considered offshore renewables in its existing targets, although it is expected that it may play a significant role by 2020.” Source: Renewable Energy Capacity in Regional Spatial Strategies – July 2009 Department for Communities and Local Government: http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/planningandbuilding/pdf/renewableenergyreport.pdf
6. RSS All Targets are not Equal Compare – The South East 10% by 2020 And the S.E. INCLUDES Off-shore!
7. RSS: All Target Monitoring is not Equal 4.5 Monitoring The ways in which regional assemblies (RA) monitor and report progress towards meeting their renewable energy targets varies significantly across England. • installed capacity should be reported for (a) renewable energy developments / installations granted planning permission and (b) completed renewable energy developments / installations • where renewable energy technologies are aggregated in reporting, the aggregation should allow for comparison with the renewable energy statistics database supported by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (see www.restats.org.uk) Information sources and methods used by regional assemblies to monitor progress are summarised below: • RESTATS • BIS energy trends data • Ofgem ROC register • energy consumption data ...... Source: Renewable Energy Capacity in Regional Spatial Strategies – July 2009 Department for Communities and Local Government: http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/planningandbuilding/pdf/renewableenergyreport.pdf
8. RSS: All Progress is not Equal 4.7 Conclusions Research reveals that the overarching message is one of variety across the regions. Key messages include: • variation in the way that renewable energy targets are presented, both in terms of form and content • variation in the treatment of offshore renewable energy contributions • variation in the scope and date of evidence bases, with a need to revisit assessments and targets, particularly in relation to sub-regional targets and 2020 targets • progress towards 2010 renewable energy targets range from 80% delivery in the South East to just 29% in the South West • progress towards 2020 targets range from 47% delivery in the West Midlands to 5% in the East Midlands • currently only 3.2% total electricity consumption in England is provided from renewable energy sources. A target of between 30% and 35% as proposed in the draft RES is therefore ambitious Source: Renewable Energy Capacity in Regional Spatial Strategies – July 2009 Department for Communities and Local Government: http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/planningandbuilding/pdf/renewableenergyreport.pdf
9. Climate Change Act & Carbon Budgets It is important to recognise that these reductions are based upon 1990 levels and they are reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The UK has already achieved a 22% reduction by 2008 “the net UK carbon account in 2008 was 606.7 MtCO2e. This is 22% below base year emissions, which were 777.8 MtCO2e” http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/what_we_do/lc_uk/carbon_budgets/carbon_budgets.aspx
10. STOP PRESS 31st March 2011 This statement shows that, in 2009, net UK emissions were 561.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (MtCO2e). This is 54.2 MtCO2e (8.8%) less than net UK emissions in 2008. However, 13.5 MtCO2e worth of carbon units were sold in 2009 by companies in the UK operating under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). Taking into account the use of these carbon units, this means the net UK carbon account in 2009 was 575.3 MtCO2e. This is 26.5% below base year emissions, which were 783.1 MtCO2e http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/what_we_do/lc_uk/carbon_budgets/carbon_budgets.aspx
11. National (Targets) 10% of Electricity Consumption 2020 20% “ “ 34% CO2 reduction 2060 40% of Electricity Consumption North East (Targets): 454MW Installed Capacity 2020 20% of Electricity Consumption - Aspiration Northumberland (Targets): 212MW Installed Capacity 2020 20% of Electricity Consumption - Aspiration NOTE: There is NO 30% Target for Northumberland or the NE in 2020
12. Is the Policy a Success? How do we judge our progress towards these targets? We need two sets of information: Electricity Consumption Renewable Energy development information.
13. 1. Electricity Consumption.
14. 2. Renewable Energy development information. The RESTATS project: Provides accurate up-to-date energy statistics from UK renewable energy sources. Holds information on electricity, heat and liquid biofuels Provides a means of monitoring progress against the UK target of 10% of electricity from renewables by 2010 Provides data that are used to assess the UK’s performance from a European and World-wide perspective Is a source of credible data for Government and industry Shows the effects of legislative changes; eg changes to clinical incineration practices Is key to assessing the success of the renewable energy technologies and progress to targets introduced in the 2009 Renewable Energy Directive.
15. Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD) In parallel and complimenting RESTATS, the REPD project tracks the progress of new projects from inception, through planning, construction and operational stages. These data are used to Make forecastsabout when targets for electricity generation from renewable energy sources might be achieved; failure to do so would result in financial penalties to the UK Helpidentify where problems may be occurring in policy, incentive mechanisms and in the planning process Provide good quality information to Government to assist in evidence-based policy making.
16. Renewable Energy Required
17. Renewable Energy Required Renewable Energy Already Approved
18. Renewable Energy Required Renewable Energy Already Approved Note this does not include the 395MW Generation of Tyne REP & Blyth Biomass with IPC or any Off-shore
19. This is what you have now - What the public can now see. National Aim for All Renewable Energy 2060 including Off-Shore wind All data from Department of Energy & Climate Control – DECC February 2011
20. This is what has been Agreed to: Planning Approvals. National Aim for All Renewable Energy 2060 including Off-Shore wind All data from Department of Energy & Climate Control – DECC February 2011
21. Northumberland is way ahead of any other County in England with On-Shore Wind Farm Approvals. And nobody has even the grace to show some appreciation. Should we not be shouting to all and sundry just how well Northumberland is doing to clean up every other County’s CO2? What about that original first Key Principle of PPS22 ? “Renewable energy developments should be capable of being accommodated throughout England in locations where the technology is viable and environmental, economic, and social impacts can be addressed satisfactorily. “
22. Northumberland is way ahead of any other County in England with On-Shore Wind Farm Approvals. The next nearest is Durham Apart from our neighbour Durham, we have been made to accept: three times as much as the next nearest County; 10 times as much as all but 8; 20 times as much as the median; 40 times as much as East Sussex or Bristol, Somerset & Gloucester combined; Hampshire has approved none at all (These are the counties of Energy Ministers Chris Huhne, Charles Hendry and Planning Inspectorate.)
23. How We Compare
24. This is what has been Agreed to: Planning Approvals. National Aim for All Renewable Energy 2060 including Off-Shore wind All data from Department of Energy & Climate Control – DECC February 2011
25. This is what the position Will Be without effective Control National Aim for All Renewable Energy 2060 including Off-Shore wind All data from Department of Energy & Climate Control – DECC February 2011
26. The Control is Policy Other Planning Authorities are instituting Policy To protect their Environment To protect the Amenity of their Residents To protect their Landscape Has the Policy been adequate in Northumberland? Will it be adequate in the future? Can Control be re-established quickly enough?
27. PPS22 Key Principle (iii) Planning policies that rule out or place constraints on the development of all, or specific types of, renewable energy technologies should not be included in regional spatial strategies or local development documents without sufficient reasoned justification.
28. An example – Lincolnshire Consultative Draft: http://committee.west-lindsey.gov.uk/comm_mins/documents/DPSC/Reports/DPSC0075RAPP1.pdf APPENDIX B – SUGGESTED POLICY The County Council considers that onshore wind energy developments are only acceptable where they do not conflict with following criteria:- Landscape and Visual Impact located outside highly sensitive landscape areas as defined in Landscape Character Assessments; located outside of areas defined in Landscape Character Assessments as having a low landscape capacity to visually accommodate turbine development are unacceptable as wind turbine locations; located outside of the LincolnshireWolds Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty and only in exceptional circumstances in locations which would have a dominant impact upon the designated area, for example within a 0 – 400 metre zone around the boundary of the LincolnshireWolds Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty. Between 400 metres to 2km wind turbines over 100 metres in height are also considered inappropriate; located sufficient distance from town and villages so as not to be too prominent, for example, outside of a 0 – 400 metres Zone around settlements (town and villages) and no large turbines over 100 metres in height in the zone of prominence extending to 2km from settlement boundaries;
29. An example – Lincolnshire Consultative Draft: http://committee.west-lindsey.gov.uk/comm_mins/documents/DPSC/Reports/DPSC0075RAPP1.pdf located so as not to diminish the visual experience of an acknowledged view point, for example, outside of a 10 km visibility cone of an acknowledged view point as shown on Ordnance Survey maps; new wind farms within 10km of existing wind farms (including on and off shore wind farms) need to demonstrate they would not merge with the existing developments, thereby resulting in a negative cumulative visual impact; there is a presumption against wind turbine developments on the grounds of negative cumulative visual impact, unless demonstrated otherwise, in the following circumstances:- - turbines detached by more than 500 metres but within 4km of an existing turbine development; - settlements of more than 10 dwellings should not have wind turbine developments in more than 90° of their field of view, this normally equates to 10km from windows in residential properties; - individual dwellings should not have wind turbines in more than 180° of their field of view.
30. An example – Lincolnshire Consultative Draft: http://committee.west-lindsey.gov.uk/comm_mins/documents/DPSC/Reports/DPSC0075RAPP1.pdf b) Impact on the Historic and Natural Environment Wind turbine development should not take place in locations where: - the context of a historic garden, park, battlefield or designated conservation area would be visually compromised (normally a 2km zone should be avoided dependent upon a site specific assessment); - the visual dominance of Lincoln Cathedral would be compromised; (see also Regional Plan Policy SR10); - the visual significance of church spires and historic/architecturally important buildings would be compromised. Wind turbine development within 2km of such buildings should be avoided and up to 5km where there is likely to be “conspicuous” impact; - defined areas of historic landscape importance, as defined by the Historic Landscape Characterisation project, and to protect the integrity of such sites in the immediate vicinity, for example, a 2km area around them; - the development would be in or in proximity to an international site of nature conservation interest (normally a 2km distance) and of a Site of Special Scientific Interest (on average 40 metres, although this may extend to 800 metres with regard to a site of important ornithological interest); - the development would be within the Coastal Conservation Area or other form of designated conservation area.
31. An example – Lincolnshire Consultative Draft: http://committee.west-lindsey.gov.uk/comm_mins/documents/DPSC/Reports/DPSC0075RAPP1.pdf c) Residential Amenity Amenity of existing residential occupants must be maintained at an acceptable level, therefore the following criteria shall be applied:- no wind farm developments shall be constructed in close proximity of a residential property (the accepted distance for separation is 700 metres) and only upon the provision of an assessment demonstrating acceptable noise levels within 700 metres to 2km; no wind turbines shall be constructed within a distance of a factor of ten times the diameter of the blades of a residential property to mitigate against flicker, unless intervening topography/structures negates the impact. d) Related Infrastructure The presumption is for connecting cables to be placed underground and use made of existing or replacement pylons (of the same size and scale) along existing routes to carry the additional base load cabling.
32. Regional ComparisonAll Renewable Energy DECC : 15th Feb 2011
33. Have Northumberland and NE residents received the same protection as in other areas?
34. We not only do more in Planning We also do more in Reducing Electricity Consumption
35. And a little more in Reducing Gas Consumption Source: DECC Energy Trends, Dec.2010, p44
36. RSS & the Sub-Regional target During the 2006 RSS EiP sub regional targets were discussed. The Ove Arup view: “several participants commented on the fact that policy 40 requires Northumberland to provide the largest proportion of future renewable generation. It was suggested that the targets should be re-balanced to provide a more equitable distribution throughout the region. However, in our view the targets must reflect the opportunities for increased generation which are themselves a reflection of geography, settlement pattern and development potential. Hence sub-regional targets cannot be based on the proportion of existing consumption or any other proportional population based measurement” However the 2006 discussion revolved around the potential for wind. We now have seen the potential for RE generation in urban areas: ‘As the project will run 24 hours per day, 365 days per annum, it will generate as much renewable electricity as a 1,000MWe offshore wind farm  (equivalent to that generated by the London Array wind farm which is one of the largest renewable energy projects in the world)’ MGT Power. ‘Biomass Power Station, Teesport: Final Scoping Report’, April 2008. A similar 1000MWe Biomass plant is proposed for the Tyne
37. North East Energy Mix
38. North East Energy Mix Actual Approved
39. RSS Predicted 2020 Renewable Energy Mix Versus Actual Approved RE Mix RSS Predicted Consumption: 15,000 GWh/pa (1711 MWe) Actual Consumption 2009: 12,034 GWh/pa (1511 MWe) Current Prediction 2020: <10,000 GWhr/pa (1140 Mwe) ??? Notes: The Approvals above are to 15th Feb 2011 according to RESTATS – not including Undetermined/Tyne REP/Blyth Biomass Renewable Heat is NOT included. Offshore Wind is NOT included.
40. North East Renewable Energy Mix Potential
41. North East Renewable Energy Mix RSS Predicted 2020 Potential Current 2020 Potential
42. IF this is about Climate ChangeYou have a choice .... 100MW Continuous Biomass 80MW Intermittent Wind OR Rural Urban
43. Summary of Main Issues All Renewable Energy targets are related to Consumption The NE region is far exceeding the other English Regions Northumberland has already approved 4 times as much Wind generation as any other English County outside the NE. Much of this is “enforced”; decisions are taken away from local people and their residents and being made by Inspectors from PINS and Ministers. Energy Ministers are taking less than 1/100thof our commitment. The PINS “Obergrupenfuhrers” (as described in Westminster) take only 1/40th in the area around their base. We are already well beyond the 2060 aims, what more are we going to be forced to do? Policy must be updated to reflect actual figures – prediction errors must be corrected. Planning decisions must have correct appraisals. How can this be called Fair and Balanced?
44. KEY MESSAGES Time to take stock on targets. County Council need to re-establish robust and effective policy control in response to excessive windfarm proposals. The Localism Agenda on its own will not work – a better balance in Planning Policy and Guidance is needed to redress the balance between developers and local communities. Other Councils are saying Enough is Enough, while some Councils are keeping very quiet about doing very little! We have met and exceeded (in terms of consented applications) the targets required. Northumberland can now afford to be selective about what else it will accept We must now use actual data not erroneous prediction. Planning decisions must be based upon factual appraisals. REQUESTS: Officers be asked to confirm and validate the data in this presentation as a matter of urgency. this issue be referred to the appropriate Scrutiny Committee for additional consideration and/or to the LDP Working Group – possibly a joint venture of both.
45. Question: What is the target set by the UK renewable Energy Strategy? Is it 30% of electricity consumption? Answer: The UK RES does not set a 30% target – it paints a possible scenario. This scenario includes off-shore wind – the RES even shows a diagram of the lead scenario showing the relatively small proportion of on-shore wind. The UK RES lead scenario does not require any increase in on-shore renewable energy beyond that already consented under the 10% RSS targets.
46. The Government has also asked the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) for advice on the level of ambition for renewables in 2020 and beyond, taking into account cost, technical potential, environmental impact and practical delivery. The Government's Renewable Energy Strategy lead scenario .. suggests that by 2020 about 30% or more of our electricity - both centralised and small-scale generation - couldcome from renewable sources, compared to around 6.7% today. The CCC in initial advice to Government in September 2010 on the UK's renewables ambition, agreed that a contribution from renewable electricity of 30% of total generation by 2020 is appropriate in the context of the need to substantially decarbonise the power sector by 2030 (on the path to meeting the economy-wide target to reduce emissions by 80% relative to 1990 levels). We are expecting the Committee to provide advice on the level of ambition beyond 2020 in April 2011. (Emphasis added)
47.  The Government's Renewable Energy Strategy lead scenario [2] suggests that by 2020 about 30% or more of our electricity - both centralised and small-scale generation - couldcome from renewable sources, compared to around 6.7% today. (Emphasis added) THIS 30% IS NOT A TARGET FOR REGIONSTHIS IS NOT A TARGET FOR NORTHUMBERLANDIT INCLUDESOFF-SHORE WIND! OFF-SHORE WIND APPROVED is ALREADY 27% of PREDICTED RE GENERATION A FURTHER 2,000MW is Awaiting Approval, the UK strategy discusses a further 25,000! The RESTATS database currently (30/3/11) shows 20.4% of 2009 Consumption Approved. Approved + Submitted + No App. Reqd. Amounts to 35.5% - So no surprise that 30% could come from RE – WITHOUT ANY INCREASE IN REGIONAL TARGETS!
48. Northumberland does NOT have a “target” of 30% It is wrong to multiply the 2010 MW Installed Capacity Target – The 2020 RSS Aspiration is 20% of Consumption The disaggregated Installed Capacity targets of 2010 were based upon FALSE predictions of the energy mix thus FALSE understanding of Opportunities for generation. The 616MW figure suggested above is 45% of the Total NE 2009 Consumption! “....the [sub-regional] targets must reflect the opportunities for increased generation which are themselves a reflection of geography, settlement pattern and development potential.” (DCLG 2009 report) Why are Planners giving Northumberland a target of 45% of the whole region when other Regions are being given less than 10%?
49. Compare – The South East Plan (RSS) Compare this 1130MW for the whole of the S.E, with the 616MW that Planners are now suggesting for Northld! The S.E. Figures include Off-shore “9.89 The assumed contribution to the [S.E.] regional targets from offshore wind/marine technologies is 200MW at 2010 and 300MW at 2016.”
50. The UK Renewable Energy Strategy 2009 has been quoted as the source for the 30% “Target” This is the Actual Renewable Energy Strategy 2009 scenario – Note the relative sizes of Off-shore and On-shore wind! - Note the multiple Biomass/Bioenergy sectors! http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/what%20we%20do/uk%20energy%20supply/energy%20mix/renewable%20energy/renewable%20energy%20strategy/1_20090717120647_e_@@_theukrenewableenergystrategy2009.pdf
51. Question: How do we compare with other rural counties and other regions? Answer: The comparison is stark. Both Northumberland and the NE as a whole does so much more. It is also of great concern that some seem to be suggesting that we need to do more again – a good comparison is between the “target” suggested in a recent Northumberland planning report for 2020. This is 616MW. Compare that with the “target” for the whole of the South East region – this is only 1130MW, yet the S.E. consumes 3 times as much electricity as the whole of the North East! The 616MW “target” is simply wrong.
52. How We Compare – Regions AllRenewable Energy Approved – Installed Capacity Data as at 15th Feb 2011
53. How We Compare – Regions Onshore Wind Approved Data as at 15th Feb 2011
54. How We Compare – Top 10 Counties Data as at 15th Feb 2011
55. How We Compare – Bottom 15
56. You also must accept this But not Me Since 2005 NIAL (Newcastle International Airport Ltd.) has received over 250 wind farm consultations. While this covers the entire safeguarding region, the majority of these consultations are in Northumberland. Figure 3 shows those schemes where sufficient information is available. http://www.newcastleairport.com/AboutYourAirport/MasterplanAndDev/RadarBlankingStrategy.htm
57. A single Technology type can be selected showing just what commitment is made: But for some counties the total is ZERO : The South East region concluded that overall, Kent, Hampshire and the Isle of Wight, and the Thames Valley and Surrey appear to have the greatest potential for onshore wind development (Source: PPS22 Guide/ SE RSS) There has been no change found in the latest 30/Mar/2011 download
58. Compare – The South East Plan (RSS) 10% by 2020 9.89 The assumed contribution to the [S.E.] regional targets from offshore wind/marine technologies is 200MW at 2010 and 300MW at 2016.
59. Compare – Consumption North East (MW) 1,372 South East (MW) 4,534 Targets set by PPS22 – 10% of Consumption: It would be reasonable to expect that the S.E. would be set over 3 x the target of the N.E.
60. Compare – Consumption 2010 Target Approved 2020 Offshore Northumberland /Hampshire North East 1,372 454 961 274? or 908? Ignored 20%? 30%? 616 South East 4,534 620 461 1,130 Included 10% 115
61. Compare 2020 “targets” Compare this 1130MW for the whole of the S.E, with the 616MW that Planners are now suggesting for Northld! The S.E. Figures include Off-shore
62. Question: Do we not just have many more wind developments in the North East simply because we have more wind? Answer: This seems to be a fallacy. The DECC publishes a wind map – in fact the West is windier than the East. But consistency is vital; the wind in the east is much more turbulent as the prevailing direction is across the Pennines. This turbulence lowers the generation. The best source of data is the actual generation achieved by existing wind farms; the actual efficiency of the installed turbines. Those in the N.E. perform worse than other regions, suggesting that the N.E. conditions are less suitable.
63. The higher windspeeds are to the West of the UK. Mountains do have the highest speeds but they are also associated with low speeds in the valleys. Wind farms require consistency and medium speeds – they have to be turned off in high winds to prevent destruction of blades and generators.
64. The Load Factor (LF) is the Generation per unit Installed Capacity. It can be used as a measure of Wind Farm Efficiency Or to show how “good” the wind is, in that region, for wind generation. Apart from the West Midlands which does not have meaningful data, the North East has the lowest average LF of all of the regions.
65. Question: How is the UK as a whole able to meet electricity needs and still progress to carbon free targets. Answer: We need to look at the consumption requirements which vary by season and by time of day. Generation must match consumption. Given the current level of application approvals, renewables are on target to meet 30%, when offshore is included, without any further increase. The UK RES shows a considerable increase in offshore generation and gives a clear view of the 2020 scenario. It shows On-shore wind as a much lower proportion than popularly envisaged The National Grid also shows that the increase in Nuclear generation is more important than the total (offshore plus onshore) wind generation.
66. UK Targets & Progress - Renewables National Grid – History & Forecast of Consumption Note this 58GW is the Peak Demand. http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/SYS/
67. UK Targets & Progress - Renewables National Grid – History & Forecast of Consumption Actual Consumption varies by season and time of day between roughly 20GW and 60GW. The Average Consumption is 30 - 35 GW http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/SYS/
68. UK Targets & Progress - Renewables National Grid – History & Forecast of Consumption The Average Consumption is 30 - 35 GW In rough terms 10% of UK Consumption will be 3GW; 20% will be 7GW; a 30% scenario would be 10GW UK RESTATS Current Approved + Not requiring approval: In rough terms 20% of UK Consumption is already approved.
69. UK Targets & Progress - Renewables National Grid – History & Forecast of Consumption The Average Consumption is 30 - 35 GW In rough terms 10% of UK Consumption will be 3GW; 20% will be 7GW; a 30% scenario would be 10GW In rough terms 20% of UK Consumption is already approved. UK RESTATS Current Approved + Not requiring approval + Applications: And with current applications we have well over 30%
70. UK Targets & Progress - Renewables National Grid – History & Forecast of Consumption In rough terms 10% of UK Consumption will be 3GW; 20% will be 7GW; a 30% scenario would be 10GW In rough terms 20% of UK Consumption is already approved. In rough terms 30% of UK Consumption is already approved or submitted. But the RESTATS figures do not include Renewable Heat or the expected Off-Shore listed in the Renewable Energy Strategy. They only include 1.7GW approved Off-shore.
71. UK Targets & Progress - Renewables National Grid – History & Forecast of Consumption In rough terms 10% of UK Consumption will be 3GW; 20% will be 7GW; a 30% scenario would be 10GW In rough terms 20% of UK Consumption is already approved. In rough terms 30% of UK Consumption is already approved or submitted. But the RESTATS figures do not include Renewable Heat or the expected Off-Shore listed in the Renewable Energy Strategy. They only include 1.7GW approved Off-shore. The lead scenario includes MUCH more.
72. UK Targets & Progress – Carbon/Climate National Grid – Forecast of Generation When considering Carbon Targets, the Renewables Progress does not include the very substantial increase in Nuclear ( 13GW by 2020; 30GW by 2025 ) Source : http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/SYS/
73. Question: What is the impact of Nuclear policy upon Carbon Emissions? Answer: It is sometimes very difficult to assess the level of generation envisaged in UK new nuclear. I look at the “transmission contracted generation” as the best estimate. This is the value used by the National Grid in their predictions – and if anyone should be able to correctly estimate this, then it would the National Grid – using the contracts that they have signed. The level of nuclear is extremely high – it makes wind, and indeed the whole renewables contribution quite small by 2020. The 2025 scenario, with over 90% of electricity being carbon emission free gives a very clear impression of the relative importance in Carbon terms. Nuclear does not remove the need for wind – it removes the need for coal and oil. The choice is not between nuclear and wind – it is between nuclear and coal to prevent intermittent suply.
74. IF this is about Climate ChangeYou have a choice .... 1,500MW Continuous Nuclear 80MW Intermittent Wind OR Massive Footprint Tiny footprint per MW
75. National Grid Contracted Generation beyond 2017 2020 Includes 12,780MW New Nuclear Plant less 1450 due decommissioned 2011 Note: Also Dungeness C & Bradwell B, each 1650MW due 2016 Source: http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/SYS/
76. 2020 18GW Carbon Free 50%+ Generation Scenario
77. 2025 30GW Carbon Free 90%+ Generation Scenario
78. Question: Does Planning advice reflect UK policy Answer: It is difficult to see the relevance of some comment It is particularly difficult to understand the suggestion that a 30% target exists. I can find no mention of any such “target” in the UK Renewable Energy Strategy – it only refers to a 30% scenario
79. “The benefits of the proposal 6.7 The UK has committed, under the Kyoto Protocol, to a binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This target is complemented by the UK’s domestic goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 34% on 1990 levels by 2020 as set out in the UK Low Carbon Transition Plan. ” By 2009, with the existing operational installed capacity, the UK has already achieved a 26.5% reduction. “The UK government has set out a range of policies to meet these targets. In the Renewable Energy Strategy, The UK Government’s target is to generate 30% of UK electricity by 2020 from renewable sources.” The Renewable Energy Strategy does not set a 30% target. It describes a “lead scenario” by which the UK believes 30% is achievable by 2020 with that 30% including more Off-shore wind than On-shore. The Renewable Energy Strategy includes New Nuclear Power Stations.
80. PPS22 Key Principle (iii) Planning policies that rule out or place constraints on the development of all, or specific types of, renewable energy technologies should not be included in regional spatial strategies or local development documents without sufficient reasoned justification. Key Principle (v) Regional planning bodies and local planning authorities should not make assumptions about the technical and commercial feasibility of renewable energy Projects Key Principle (vii) Local planning authorities, regional stakeholders and Local Strategic Partnerships should foster community involvement in renewable energy projects3 and seek to promote knowledge of and greater acceptance by the public of prospective renewable energy developments that are appropriately located. Developers of renewable energy projects should engage in active consultation and discussion with local communities at an early stage in the planning process, and before any planning application is formally submitted.
81. Question: Is the Decrease in Electricity Consumption in the NE just a reflection of declining industry? Answer: Surprisingly the NE has not declined more than the rest of the UK in the last five years. Economic activity is measured using GVA by the Office of National Statistics. Over the same period, NE consumption has gone down while GVA has gone up. The NE was down more in 2008 but recovered parity in 2009 The County measure for 2009 is not yet available but it is reasonable to assume it will follow the NE.
82. Measured by GVA
83. The NE decrease in consumption was from a Base that was already the lowest domestic level in the country!
84. While individual counties may be worse, Fuel poverty is amongst the highest in England across the Whole of the NE Region
85. Carbon Emission Targets & Scenario UK Applications Approved – All “MW” are not Equal. The Installed Capacity gives a totally false impression It simply inflates the importance of on-shore wind The Renewable Energy Generation is the critical Target Generation is the only factor of importance to Carbon Emission
86. North East has the highest proportion of Biomass – the Lowest of Waste + Landfill generation