Improving Collaborative Drought Monitoring and Early Warning

1. Improving Collaborative Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Progress and Challenges from the NIDIS Upper Colorado River Basin Pilot Project Nolan Doesken, Wendy Ryan and Becky Smith Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University February 24, 2011 NIDIS UCRB Review -- Boulder, CO

2. A short story about Drought • 1954 -- my first drought • 1976-77 Colorado’s first big recreation drought – got Gov. Lamm’s attention, but drought ended quickly • 1981 Short, intense drought under Gov. Lamm – Colorado Drought Response Plan implemented • 1982-1999 Dedicated commitment to monitoring, drought index development, data improvements -- but not much drought -- nice, full reservoirs and a lot of complacency • 2000 – 2006 Drought returns and gets nasty • A decade of planning comes to fruition – NIDIS is born • Here we are – CCC gets involved in NIDIS UCRB Pilot via initial Scoping Meeting and Remote Sensing assessment

3. 2009 – Mostly Listening • Interviewed many individuals and organizations to learn what they used, what they needed and what they wished they had when it came to drought information (results have been reported on at previous meetings)

4. 2010 – Action Begins • Moving towards a “basin specific” Drought Monitor • Testing the waters of targeted “drought early warning”

5. 2010 – Webinars and Weekly Assessment Reports begun

6. Webinar and Assessment Content • Recent and water year precipitation (us) • Snowpack status and changes (we lead but USDA NRCS is usually present) • Streamflow (USGS) • Reservoirs (could use help here) • Soil Moisture • Predictions (next week – and sometimes seasonal – refer to CBRFC ) • Detailed assessment of USDM and recommended changes (all chime in, especially NWS WFOs)

7. USGS Streamflow Michael Lewis USGS Colorado Water Science Center February 24, 2011

8. 3 USGS Water Science Centers • Colorado • Wyoming-Kirk Miller • Utah-Cory Angeroth

9. Data Sources • USGS real-time network • Only gages with at least 30 years of record • Roughly 135 gages in spring, summer, fall • Roughly 40-50 gages reporting in winter • Provisional data used in the NIDIS summaries

10. Spatial trends in streamflow • 7-day average streamflow • Percentile classes of streamflow

11. Temporal trends in streamflow • 7-day average streamflow • Percentile classes of streamflow • Begins in 2002, point of • reference for low flows • Allows specific day of year • comparison Percentage of streamgages in streamflow category

12. Temporal trends in streamflow • Duration hydrographs presented for 3 “key” streamgages • Colorado River near CO-UT state line • Green River near Green River, UT • San Juan River near Bluff, UT

13. Cumulative Runoff December 26, 2010 Total runoff: 3.60 M acre-ft 77% of normal • Presented for same 3 “key” streamgages

14. Tracking Reservoirs • Much progress but . . . . . Still a challenge • The challenge is not getting the data, it is explaining the significance when we don’t fully understand the management • Maybe we’re doing OK, but not sure

15. Green Mtn Reservoir Seasonal Cycle

16. Green Mtn Reservoir Time History

17. 2010 – Summary • Intensive collaborative monitoring working • Participation in Webinars modest • Collaborations expanding and maturing • Great teamwork has developed with CBRFC • Became convinced that it would be most fruitful to work together towards improving the weekly USDM product rather than create a semi-independent basin specific Drought Monitor for UCRB

18. 2011 – Current Efforts • Weekly Webinars now underway through the runoff season (mid-late June) • Weekly Assessment reports year round • Continuing to build “Community” – participation remains “moderate” • EVALUATION!!! • Planning beyond the Pilot towards sustainability (not much time put into this yet) • Research– Becky Smith PhD research on UCRB climate predictability now underway

19. 2011 Evaluation Phase • Have now developed an extensive “questionnaire” and are nearly ready to accept input and prepare to disseminate • Categories of questionnaire -- Demographics -- Use and satisfaction in products and services -- webinar assessment -- USDM assessment -- U.S. Drought Portal assessment -- Use and value of seasonal prediction (will leave Streamflow prediction assessment to CBRFC and NRCS) What are we missing??

20. Musings and Contemplations • For 9 years now the “Drought” word has been tolerated in Colorado == that could stop again as memories fade. Utah seems less comfortable with the word than Colorado. • Working across state lines has not been seamless. State Climatologists do best in their own states. • Integration of “our” UCRB Drought Monitoring Community with Drought Portal does not come easy

21. More Musings • Working with National Weather Service – often excellent, sometimes confusing. Is D2 a real or an artificial barrier? • Communicating reservoir status to broad audiences is not easy -- each reservoir is its own beast and many of us are foreign to the coordinated operations process and don’t have time to learn it. We’ve made progress, but . . .

22. And even more • Climate forecasts for this year were pretty good – but were they useful? Will assess • Two year forecasts are coveted but hard to deliver with confidence • What if future forecasts are weak on skill? • What if Klaus W is not around to sacrifice his head on the forecast chopping block? • When do we hit the “too much info too often” threshold?

23. - - and still more • Full reservoirs and dry soil – and vice versa • Same content presented in predictable order or add variety? • We’ve had enough drought around to keep things interesting. What if the “urgency” goes away? Can we retain the “Community”? • How large should the “community” be? We’ve really only scratched the surface in terms of the greater UCRB

24. Summary Thoughts • Drought early warning? I think what we’re doing is helping • Contribution to USDM process? Yes, it’s definitely helping • Assessment and iterative improvement -- This is our priority for this year and we’ll covet your assistance in this assessment phase.