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Discussion of Resource Plans

Discussion of Resource Plans. Michael Schilmoeller for the Council Power Committee Tuesday, June 9, 2009. Overview. Comparison of least risk and least cost plans Similarities Differences in Wholesale power market exposure Power cost and rate volatility Interpreting the resource strategy

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Discussion of Resource Plans

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  1. Discussion ofResource Plans Michael Schilmoeller for the Council Power Committee Tuesday, June 9, 2009

  2. Overview • Comparison of least risk and least cost plans • Similarities • Differences in • Wholesale power market exposure • Power cost and rate volatility • Interpreting the resource strategy • Resource build out • Decision milestones • Choosing a plan 2

  3. Filtering Out Plans • Efficient Frontier • Finding the best plans • Discovering the successful and less unsuccessful strategies • Looking at the distributions of cost associated with plans on the efficient frontier 3

  4. A D Efficient Frontier Source: Analysis of Optimization Run_L811 090510 2101.xls 4

  5. Examining Annual Differences • Market Exposure • Cost and rate variation • Changes within a particular future 5

  6. Comparison of Average Exports for the Least-Risk and Least-Cost Plans Source: Comp.xls, worksheet “DATA (2) LR” 6

  7. Exposure to Market Imports Average Source: Comp.xls, workbook “Comp 02.xls”, worksheet 7

  8. Likelihood the Least-Risk PlanWould Reduce Market Exposure By At Least $300 M In A Hydro Quarter Source: Comp.xls, worksheet “LR-LC qtr future” 8

  9. Likelihood of Improvements 9

  10. Expected Advantageof Least Risk over Least CostMarket Purchase Expense 10

  11. Likelihood of Annual Rate Increases 11

  12. Difference in Likelihood ofAnnual Rate Increases 12

  13. Changes in System Cost 13

  14. Changes in System Cost 14

  15. Overview • Comparison of least risk and least cost plans • Similarities • Differences in • Wholesale power market exposure • Power cost and rate volatility • Interpreting the resource strategy • Resource build out • Decision milestones • Choosing a plan 15

  16. Plan D Source: Schedules for plan resources 090519.xls 16

  17. RPS Development 17

  18. Build Out of ResourcesWind Source: workbook “L811 LR plan buildout 080604.xls” 18

  19. Build Out of ResourcesGeothermal Source: workbook “L811 LR plan buildout 080604.xls” 19

  20. Build Out of Resources Combined-Cycle Combustion Turbine Source: workbook “L811 LR plan buildout 080604.xls” 20

  21. Build Out of ResourcesSimple-Cycle Combustion Turbine Source: workbook “L811 LR plan buildout 080604.xls” 21

  22. Schedule of DecisionLeast-Risk Plan 22

  23. The Choice • A plan with more resources reduces dependence on the power market and increases power price and rate stability • A plan with resources provides guidance to the region regarding the resources that promote an efficient and reliable system • Very little difference exists between least-cost and least-risk plans in the five-year Action Plan time period. • The least-risk plan preserves decision milestones 23

  24. End

  25. Plan A Source: Schedules for plan resources 090519.xls 25

  26. Difference in Cost Distributions1 of 3 Source: LR&LC_distributions.xls, worksheet “LR and LC” 26

  27. Difference in Cost Distributions2 of 3 Source: LR&LC_distributions.xls, worksheet “LR and LC” 27

  28. Difference in Cost Distributions3 of 3 Source: LR&LC_distributions.xls, worksheet “LR less LC” 28

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