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Ag. Markets: Bubble or Balloon?

Ag. Markets: Bubble or Balloon?. US Bank Ag. Conference Ashland, Nebraska Sept. 25, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. Prices. U.S. Meat Production & Prices. Source: USDA-WAOB. Total Acreage Shift. Source: USDA-NASS.

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Ag. Markets: Bubble or Balloon?

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  1. Ag. Markets: Bubble or Balloon? US Bank Ag. Conference Ashland, Nebraska Sept. 25, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. Prices

  3. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

  5. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  6. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  7. Corn Projections Source: FAPRI-MO

  8. Soybean Projections Source: FAPRI-MO

  9. Wheat Projections Source: FAPRI-MO

  10. AVERAGE VALUES all grades 1950−2011

  11. AVERAGE VALUES adjusted for inflation

  12. PERCENTAGE CHANGE from previous year, 1950−2011

  13. PERCENTAGE CHANGE

  14. Positive Factors for Land Values

  15. Negative Factors for Land Values

  16. Land Value & Cash Rental Rate Trends Source: ISU Extension Economics

  17. Land Allocation Source: FAPRI-MO

  18. U.S. Pork Projections Source: FAPRI-MO

  19. U.S. Beef Projections Source: FAPRI-MO

  20. Food Price Projections Source: FAPRI-MO

  21. Senate Proposal, 2013-2017 $ per acre Source: FAPRI-MO

  22. House Proposal, 2013-2017 $ per acre Source: FAPRI-MO

  23. Gov. Expenditures, 2013-2017 $ million Source: FAPRI-MO

  24. Change in Expenditures, 2013-2017 Source: FAPRI-MO

  25. Payments as a Share of Receipts Source: FAPRI-MO

  26. Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base

  27. GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS

  28. GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS

  29. World Meat Consumption Source: USDA-PSD

  30. Liquid Fuel Usage Source: DOE-EIA

  31. Population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base

  32. 10 Largest Economies (GDP Rank) Source: PwC, The World in 2050, January 2011

  33. Population vs. arable land share of global share of global population arable land China 19% 5% India 17% 10% US 5% 13%

  34. Arable Land

  35. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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