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Chemical Data Assimilation activities at MSC and plans for Chemical Weather

Chemical Data Assimilation activities at MSC and plans for Chemical Weather. Richard M énard*, Alain Robichaud, Pierre Gauthier, Alexander Kallaur, Martin Charon Dorval Saroja Polavarapu, Yan Yang, Yves Rochon Downview Jacek Kaminski, Jack McConnell York University/MAQNet.

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Chemical Data Assimilation activities at MSC and plans for Chemical Weather

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  1. Chemical Data Assimilation activities at MSC and plans for Chemical Weather Richard Ménard*, Alain Robichaud, Pierre Gauthier, Alexander Kallaur, Martin Charon Dorval Saroja Polavarapu, Yan Yang, Yves Rochon Downview Jacek Kaminski, Jack McConnell York University/MAQNet (*) Address: 2121 Transcanada Highway, Dorval (Quebec), H9P 1J3 Email: Richard.Menard@ec.gc.ca

  2. Air quality prediction system: Standard approach Emissions Chemical transport Met field

  3. Air quality prediction and assimilation system Phase A: Objective analysis Emissions Observations Chemical transport Analysis: Least-squares Met field Error statistics

  4. Air quality prediction and assimilation system Phase B: Data assimilation Emissions Observations Chemical transport Analysis: Least-squares Met field Error statistics

  5. Air quality prediction and assimilation system Phase C: Data assimilation + Emission correction Emissions Observations Chemical transport Analysis: Least-squares Emission correction Met field Error statistics Emission-State Cross error

  6. obs – model (obs loc) = (true + obs error) - (true + model error) = obs error – model error  distance (km) Error statistics

  7. Emissions Observations Chemical model Analysis increment Objective analysis Met fields Error statistics Ozone objective analysis and assimilation using CHRONOS

  8. Monitoring of the error statistics chi-square

  9. Analysis error variance. Reduction due to observations • provides a method for observation network design • Ozone objective analysis has been conducted continuously • each hour since the summer of 2003 (also for the summer 2002) • Ozone objective analysis and assimilation for a short period • of time have been used in ICARTT

  10. Next step: Correction for bias Statistical forecast of observations

  11. Chemical Weather system based on the operational NWP model • Development of coupled GEM with tropospheric chemistry (York U.) under CFCAS funding • Development of stratospheric GCCM with 3D and 4D Var meteorology-chemistry data assimilation. International effort involving MSC, York U., and the Belgium Institute for Space Aeronomy currently under contract negotiation with the European Space Agency

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