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Risk Management International

Risk Management International. Good Management in an Uncertain World ‘’Risk and its Interpolation with Management’’. Risk and Uncertainty.

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Risk Management International

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  1. Risk Management International Good Management in an Uncertain World ‘’Risk and its Interpolation with Management’’

  2. Risk and Uncertainty • Risk management arises where samples obey the laws* of probability. Gives rise to quantification which increases knowledge. We can make reasonable assumptions, and plan. Measurable Uncertainties: Insurable / Manageable • Uncertainty management arises where samples do not obey the laws* of probability. We have no credible basis of knowing what is around the next corner. Assumptions are a fallacy. Requires resilience, expect the unexpected Un-measurable Uncertainties: Uninsurable / Resilience *Bell Curve (C F Gauss)

  3. Evolution of Risk ManagementSource Institute of Management Accountants

  4. PerspectivesWe’re not betting the farm! • We’re not as big as we thing we are, • Space, • We’re new to 21st century pace of change and speed of information • Time,

  5. Ray Kurzweil’s Vision • By the year 2040 a super computer will reach the collective brain speed of all the human brains alive. • Computers reach the speed of 20 quadrillion instructions per second, equal to the human brain • By 2050 global brain speed is available on a $1,000 laptop. • 100 years happens in 20 at the current rate The Age of Spiritual Machines

  6. Did  You  Know  .  .  . • The  25%  of  the  population  in  China  with the highest  IQs  is  greater  than  the  total  population  of  North America! • In  India,  it’s  the  top  28%! • China  has  more  honours  kids  than  the US have  kids! • China  will  soon  be  the  number one  English speaking  country  in  the  world • The  top  10  demand  jobs  in  2010  did not exist  in 2004, • The  number  of  text  messages  sent  and  received  every  day exceeds the population  of  the  planet. Microsoft

  7. Managing Risk and Uncertainty for Opportunity In the absence of certainty, the only way to maintain potentiality is to focus on excellent execution and demonstrable resilience at the same time whilst taking as much acceptable risk as is reasonably possible (Peter Bernstein, Against the Gods, The Remarkable Story of Risk)

  8. Road Map to Easierness • Insert animation here • What we’ve put into Irish Whiskey that the Scots don’t have, and • E for Engaging the real risk owners across the Enterprise, • E for return on Risk Management Effort and, • E for Estimation of probability and impact

  9. ClarityInitial Risk Map

  10. ClarityResidual Risk Map

  11. RMI contact details Peter Egan Director RMI Ltd, 2055 Castle Drive, CityWest Business Campus Dublin 24 Ireland T +353 1 4038700 E info@rmi.ie W www.rmi.ie

  12. Uncertainty Vs’Processes required to manage it • Perspective • Knowing what Qs to ask, • Moral courage sufficient to actively want to get the bad news first and knowing the right thing to do, • Not about Bell Curves…GIFs? • Great Intellectual Frauds? Ref: The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

  13. What we have to contend with

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