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Are multiple structural interpretations better than one?

Are multiple structural interpretations better than one?. Clare Bond 1 , Euan Macrae 2 , and Zoe Shipton 2 1 Midland Valley Exploration 2 University of Glasgow. Multiple Interpretations. ...or a definitive answer?

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Are multiple structural interpretations better than one?

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  1. Are multiple structural interpretations better than one? Clare Bond1, Euan Macrae2, and Zoe Shipton2 1 Midland Valley Exploration 2 University of Glasgow

  2. Multiple Interpretations... ...or a definitive answer? The conundrum - defining the uncertainty space of an interpretation whilst providing a model on which decisions can be made.

  3. Software solutions... Multiple Interpretations Scenario modelling – turbidite flows, geomechanical and fracture modelling and in our restoration tools. The “definitive answer” – working with a model Model morphing and updating - tools to easily update and modify models whilst fixing points of certainty. ...not all the answers?

  4. Changing a mindset Human Nature The ditherer and the decisive... Are you someone who draws dashed lines on your map and dare not ink it in? Or do you... Grab the pen and go for it, potentially regretting it later?

  5. Experience Knowledge and Experience should not be underestimated, but might be better expressed as confidence? Bond, Philo and Shipton (in review) International Journal of Science Education

  6. Expertise Experts and non-experts 445 315 184 35% Bond, et al. (2008) GSAToday 27% 23%

  7. Techniques features horizons Effective experts use lots of techniques. sticks annotations Evolutionary thought Descriptive writing 100% 79% 67% 35% 23% 18%

  8. Call yourself an expert? Effective experts used specific techniques –notably thoughts about the geological evolution. 94% 51% 44% 37% 45% 35% Evolutionary thought 10%

  9. Everyone can be an expert? non-experts 87% 40% 30% 38% 37% 27% Evolutionary thought 7%

  10. Everyone can be effective by using multiple techniques to query the data and, applying specific validation techniques.

  11. More than one answer? Perhaps other solutions honour the data. If we had given the participants a choice of interpretations that included the ‘correct’ answer, would the percentage of correct concept choices have been significantly higher?

  12. Vör Survey: Multiple Interpretations Vör investigated how geologists choose the best interpretation for a seismic dataset when presented with a choice of plausible interpretations. 61 responses were collected. A seismic image from the Inner Moray Firth in the North Sea:

  13. The following three slides contain some results: What model gives the best prediction of the geology?

  14. Rank the models in order of plausibility. The percentage of respondents who rated each model as being the most plausible: Model 5 was actually ranked as the most plausible, or the 2nd most plausible 70% of the time!

  15. Rank the models in order of plausibility. The percentage of respondents who rated each model as being the least plausible:

  16. What was the main result of the Vör survey? Vör showed that, given a choice of plausible models, the majority of interpreters choose the same model. i.e.Interpreters converged to the same model. Future work: Check the geometrical validity of Models 1-5. Why did most people choose Model 5? How can we ensure that people pick the “RIGHT” model?

  17. The Freyja Project: quantifying how people make interpretations Please take part in the survey! Pens and information sheets outside.

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