E C O S Y S T E M I N F O R M A T I C S

1. John J. KinemanPhysical Scientist/Ecologist(National Geophysical Data Center)Research Associate(University of Colorado)John.J.Kineman@noaa.govwww.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/ecosys.shtml E C O S Y S T E M I N F O R M A T I C S

2. Biodiversity and Ecosystem Informatics • PCAST: “Research on, development of, and use of technological, sociological, and organizational tools and approaches for the dynamic acquisition, indexing, dissemination, storage, querying, retrieval, visualization, integration, analysis, synthesis, sharing (which includes electronic means of collaboration), and publicationof data such that economic and other benefits may be derived from the information by users from all sectors of society.” • NSF/NBII-2/BDEI: “Until recently, little attention has been paid to computer and information science and technology research in the biodiversity and ecosystem domain. The interdisciplinary field of biodiversity and ecosystem informatics (BDEI) is attempting to change that.” E C O S Y S T E M I N F O R M A T I C S Report: Dave Maier, Eric Landis, Judy Cushing, Anne Frondorf, Avi Silberschatz, Mike Frame, and John L. Schnase (Editors). 2001. Research Directions in Biodieversity and Ecosystem Informatics.Report of an NSF, USGS, NASA Workshop on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Informatics held at NASA Goddard Space Fight Center, June 22-23, 2000.1 31pp.

3. Ecological Indicators, Assessment and Monitoring • NRC - National Ecological Indicators • Heinz - The State of the Nations Ecosystems • IPCC - Climate Change 2001 • UNEP - Global Environmental Outlook - 3 • WRI - Pilot Assessment of Global Ecosystems • WRI - World Resources 2000-2001 • GOOS - Coastal Ocean Observing System • World Bank - World Development Report 2004 • WRI - Reefs at Risk • CORIS - Coral Reef Action Strategy

4. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment "In all five ecosystem types PAGE analyzed, ecosystem capacity is decreasing over a range of goods and services, not just one or two.“ (Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems) M I L L E N N I U M A S S E S S M E N T • Problem: • Human demand for ecosystem goods and services is growing dramatically • We have made, and are making, changes to ecosystems of unprecedented magnitude

5. Biodiversity underlies all other goods and services and provides “goods” in its own right. M I L L E N N I U M A S S E S S M E N T An estimated 10-15% of the world’s species will be committed to extinction over the next 30 years.

6. Ecosystem "Goods and Services" Ecosystem services: the conditions and processes supported by biodiversity through which ecosystems sustain and fulfil human life… • Biological Goods:e.g. food, water, fibre, fuel, other biological products and biotechnology • Ecological Functions:e.g. biodiversity, pollination, waste treatment, biogeochemical cycling • Human Values:e.g. cultural, aesthetic, social, psychological, and ethical M I L L E N N I U M A S S E S S M E N T

7. Integrated Ecosystem Assessment “Optimizing” Multi-Sector “Tradeoffs” M I L L E N N I U M A S S E S S M E N T Key Grasslands Freshwater Forest Coast Agro Condition Excellent Food-Fiber Production Good Fair Water Quality Poor Bad Water Quantity Not Assessed Biodiversity Changing Capacity Increasing Carbon Storage Decreasing Mixed

8. IPCC: "Human activity is significantly affecting the climate system." But what do we know about Ecosystems? WRI: “…the PAGE study faced limitations in the basic data needed to determine the condition of global ecosystems.” UNEP/GEO-3: “Missing data and data of uncertain quality are seriously hindering integrated environmental assessment at global and regional levels"

9. A Data "Collaboratory" • High Quality Publication of Case-study Data Regional Ecosystems Assessment Database • Modeling Support Regional Ecosystems Assessment Database • Evaluation of Observing System Data

10. Pacific Basin Coastal Ecosystems • Ecosystem Decline and Vulnerability • Causes and Effects • Management Options • Hotspot Detection and Early Warning • Ecological Indicators and Monitoring R E A D

11. Regional Ecosystems Assessment Database R E A D

12. Niche Modeling X Y 0.4 0.4 Salinity Temperature 0.2 0.2 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 x y We combine probability distributions to model the niche in “character” space. T S ECOSYSTEM INFORMATICS

13. Model Interface Multi-variate Stratification Input Output User Definition Delineation Method Line fractal dimension (FD) Response function Weight factor Select data layers Range Spatial Scale of unit • Define Classes • Define training • Define thresholds • System defined • Cluster analysis • Maximum liklihood • Baysian probabilities • gradient analysis Time Scale • temp • precip • swhc • PAR • LUI • [N] • elev • Vrel • PET • LAI • Pdens 100 100 50 75 50 50 45 76 86 45 25 10<23 300<700 = = <10 = = = = <20 50< linear linear linear linear log sqrt linear sqr e(3x-7) 1/x linear Decadal - Annual - Seasonal- - Monthly- - Daily - Hourly 1.2D - - - - - - - - - 1.7D Coarse - - - - - - - - Fine Previous Next Preview FD = 1.3420 Niche Model S T P link FD with spatial scale start time Set preview background image end time Add data layer / time period Save Model and Execute time step (run avg.) Remove data layer Reset defaults ECOSYSTEM INFORMATICS

14. Adaptive Ecological Mapping Potential Eco-units Iteration and validation Revisions Model improved data, time series new measures higher resolution error correction validation Environmental Database Test Observations (Satellite, in-situ, collections, research, etc.) ECOSYSTEM INFORMATICS

15. Model Test E C O S Y S T E M I N F O R M A T I C S Eastern Hardwood (T,P,E)

16. What are the Measures? • MA Goal: “...to increase the amount, quality, and credibility of policy-relevant scientific research findings.” • What is Ecosystem Health? • What about • Complexity?

17. GOOS: Phenomena of Interest • sea state and surface currents • sea level rise • coastal erosion and flooding • public health risks • habitat modification and loss (e.g., coral reefs, sea grass beds, tidal wetlands) • loss of biodiversity • oxygen depletion • harmful algal events • fish kills • declining fish stocks • beach and shellfish bed closures • increasing public health risks

18. Ecological Indicators?

19. Heinz Report

20. Hotspots (change, genetic) Stratification (diversity) H E I N Z R E P O R T Coastal Ecosystems - fragmentation and pattern Available nitrogen? Tankers, Runoff, Water column? dredging? trawling? coastline modification?

21. Core Coastal Species turnover / extinction H E I N Z R E P O RT Keystone species Indicator species Zooplankton? Disease vectors

22. Ecological Health Indicators • Toxic Pollution • Environmental Samples (air, water, sediments) • Tissue burdens, bioaccumulation • Biochemical Cycling • Nitrogen: "leaky ecosystems" • Disolved oxygen / Eutrophication ("dead" zones) • Species Composition & Range Shifts • Keystone & indicator species health & population • Extinction, invasion, replacement • Algal blooms, bacterial compositions • Diversity, richness • Ecosystem Structure and Function • Spatial extent, fragmentation, disturbance, conversion • Feedbacks, rates, stability, resilience, attractors, etc. • Productivity, food chain • Disease Vectors E C O S Y S T E M I N F O R M A T I C S

23. Ecological Forcing • Harvesting • Fish, shellfish, seaweed • Agricultural production and practices • Species and Habitat Changes • Introduced and Invasive Species • Extinction and replacement rates • Habitat conversion • Coastal Development • Human population, settlement, and use • Infrastructure • Hydrologic alteration • Toxic pollution, sewage • Shoreline change • Climate Change and Variability E C O S Y S T E M I N F O R M A T I C S

24. Integrated Ecosystem Assessment • Status of ecological goods and services • Commercial harvest / sustainability • Valuation • Tradeoffs • Habitat & Niche Status • Habitat vs. environmental & human induced change • Protection needs (e.g., Gap Analysis) • Migration, invasion, colonization pathways • Biodiversity hotspots and genetic resources • Ecological Design • Management & protection areas • Development and management future scenarios E C O S Y S T E M I N F O R M A T I C S

25. Monitoring and Detection • Hotspot Detection and Delineation • Sudden/significant ecological events • Genetic hotspots and resource stratification • Documenting Ecological Change • Cumulative/creeping processes and effects • Macro-ecological changes • Societal impacts • Early Warning • Drivers of ecosystem change • Molecular scale biological changes • Societal risks from ecological change E C O S Y S T E M I N F O R M A T I C S

26. Synthesis and Decision Support • Community-based assessment and planning • Ecological Characterization • Valuation of Goods and Services • Regional Planning • State-Federal collaboration • National Policy • Mandated Information • Data & Information Sharing • Indexing (metadata, etc.), Publication • Presentation products • Mitigation and Restoration Options E C O S Y S T E M I N F O R M A T I C S

27. Environmental Controls • Climate (temperature, humidity, rain, etc.) • Weather, waves, tides • Water availability & quality • Atmospheric chemistry • Aerosols, turbidity • Soil/substrate characteristics • Sunlight • Nutrient availability / cycling • Physical and geographical structure • Ocean and atmosphere circulation & mixing • Deposition • Disturbance (natural & human) • Toxins • Biotic controls (competition, disease, allelopaths, etc.) E C O S Y S T E M I N F O R M A T I C S

28. A Proposed Soil Moisture Product (time series), from Single Instrument (SMMR/SSMI): E C O S Y S T E M I N F O R M A T I C S API = a – b(Tv + Th)0.5 – c(Tv –Th)d WHERE, API = Antecedent Precipitation Index Tv =Vertical Polarization, Th = Horizontal Polarization, a = 139.55; b = 0.21; c = 86.12 and d = -0.017 This model has been tested to derive soil moisture from the least to the most densely vegetated areas (NDVI 0.3 to 0.65) Dr. Nizam Ahmed National Geophysical Data Center

29. API vs. Soil Moisture (from met. data) E C O S Y S T E M I N F O R M A T I C S Microwave emissivity and polarization difference Accounted for 80 % of the observed variability in the soil moisture Correlation coefficient 0.91 and Standard Error 1.18mm