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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 22, 2014. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml. Outline.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 22, 2014 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the rainfall over many parts of India, southern Pakistan, and far northeastern China have been generally below normal. Isolated pockets of above normal rainfall are noted along the Western Ghats, Nepal, Bangladesh, Burma, southeastern China, the Philippines, and in some regions of the maritime Indonesian islands.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days rainfall, along the western Ghats region of India, near Kashmir, and along parts of northeastern India and Nepal, were above normal. According to the India Met. Dept.(IMD), as of 22nd of September, the cumulative monsoon rainfall, for India as a whole, so far this season, continues to stay at 11% below long term mean. It appears that this level of deficit may continue, if not worsen, through the end of summer monsoon season that ends on 30th September.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, rainfall was generally below normal over much of India except along Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and over northeast India. East Central China also got above normal rainfall.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, the rainfall over many parts of India, southern Pakistan, and far northeastern China have been generally below normal. Isolated pockets of above normal rainfall are noted along the Western Ghats, Nepal, Bangladesh, Burma, southeastern China, the Philippines, and in some regions of the maritime Indonesian islands. For the past 30 days rainfall, along the western Ghats region of India, near Kashmir, and along parts of northeastern India and Nepal, were above normal. According to the India Met. Dept.(IMD), as of 22nd of September, the cumulative monsoon rainfall, for India as a whole, so far this season, continues to stay at 11% below long term mean. It appears that this level of deficit may continue, if not worsen, through the end of summer monsoon season that ends on 30th September. In this past week, rainfall was generally below normal over much of India except along Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and over northeast India. East Central China also got above normal rainfall. For the next couple of weeks, as the 2014 Indian summer monsoon is coming to an end, the NCEP GFS model is predicting below normal rainfall over central and northern India and southern and eastern China, but above normal rainfall in southern India.
